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Southern Comfort

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If southern manufacturers are able to restore pricing in subdued markets, earnings may potentially surprise in FY18, says Vaibhav Agarwal of PhillipCapital.

We visited cement manufacturers, channel partners, builders and contractors in south India in the 2nd week of January 2017 for an update on the current situation and the forward outlook. The feedback from southern India continues to remain very positive, especially the volume commentary. Price upticks are likely to be seen in pockets where pricing is subdued (for example, in markets like Maharashtra and Gujarat, where southern players have an exposure).

In markets where prices are already buoyant, no major upticks may be expected. Cost pressures will be felt in Q3 with increase in fuel prices, but we don’t expect all companies to face a similar impact on the cost front.

Ramco Cement is believed to be best placed with high inventories of low cost fuel which will suffice requirements till 1QFY18. Debt repayment continues to remain the key objective of southern companies, and we see no deviation in management commentary on this front. India Cements is expected to repay debt of more than Rs 2 billion in the current fiscal, and the run rate is likely to increase in FY18. The commentary on east India volumes also seems to be encouraging, and Dalmia Bharat will be amongst the key beneficiaries here. We reiterate’Buy’ calls on south Indian cement manufacturers and maintain our price objectives with +50 per cent returns expected in our coverage universe of southern manufacturers.

No impact of demonetisation
The feedback from all southern Indian leaders continues to suggest that there has been no impact of demonetisation on volumes for cement manufacturers. All manufacturers are expected to report high double-digit growth in Q3. This is partially on account of low base effect, but even if we compare on a sequential basis, the volume impact for southern companies is likely to be very marginal (largely flattish). Notably, Q3 is a weak quarter for south India as it is the monsoon quarter.

Turnaround year for capacity utilisations
Management commentary remains extremely positive on volumes. Good demand revival is being sensed by southern manufacturers in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The commentary also remains very positive on eastern volumes. Both manufacturers and channel partners expect FY18 to be a turnaround year and expect utilisation uptick of 4-5 per cent for the region as a whole, from current utilisations of about ~60 per cent.

Focus on volumes
We see that all southern Indian cement manufacturers are now refocusing on volume growth with the support of demand and by establishing newer markets outside of the region where the volumes can be pushed. For example, we were told that India Cements is targeting nearly 1 million tonnes of sales in export markets in FY18 (~10 per cent of sales). Fresh orders for specialised cements to select manufacturers are also helping the company ramp up capacity utilisation and support blended realisations. They don’t expect much to come in from cement prices as they seem happy with the stable price scenario. However, they will try hard to push prices in subdued markets.

Our take

  • Despite demonetisation, Q3 will not be a disappointing quarter for south India-based manufacturers. EBITDA/tonne (Rs 100-150) decline will be largely on account of marginal price correction and cost push.
  • Volumes continue to remain strong though y-o-y volume growth may tone down in Q4 due to high base effect.
  • We reiterate’Buy’ on southern manufacturers. There are no disappointments expected in FY18 earnings. Along with volumes, if southern manufacturers are also able to restore pricing in subdued markets, earnings may potentially surprise in FY18.

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Concrete

Ultra Concrete Age

Prof. A. S. Khanna (Retd., IIT Bombay) on how Ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) improves strength, durability and lifecycle performance.

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The need of present time is stronger buildings, industrial or common utility buildings, such as Malls, Railway stations, hospitals, offices, bridges etc. For this, there is need of long durable, tough and stable concrete, which could stand under normal and seismic conditions. Tough railway bridges are required for bullet trains to pass without any damage. Railway tunnels, sea-links, coastal roads, bridges and multistorey buildings, are the need of the hour. The question comes, is the normal cement called OPC is sufficient to take care of such requirements or better combination of cements and sand mixtures is required?
Introduction
A good stable building structure can be made with a good quality of cement+sand+water system. Its quality can be enhanced by keeping the density of admixture higher (varies from 30 in normal buildings to bridges etc to 80). Further enhancement in the properties of various cements admixtures is made by adding several additives which give additional strength, waterproofing, flexibility etc. These are called construction chemicals…

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Concrete

NCB Signs MoU With Cement Manufacturer To Boost Construction Skills

Partnership to deliver nationwide training and certification

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The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) has signed a memorandum of understanding with a leading cement manufacturer to strengthen skill development and capacity building in the construction sector. The agreement was formalised at NCB premises in Ballabgarh and was signed by the Director General of NCB, Dr L. P. Singh, and the head of technical services at UltraTech Cement Limited, Er Rahul Goel. The collaboration seeks to bring institutional resources and industry expertise into a structured national training effort.

The partnership will deliver structured training and certification programmes across the country aimed at enhancing the capabilities of civil engineers, ready?mix concrete (RMC) professionals, contractors, construction workers and masons. Programme curricula will cover material quality testing, concrete mix proportioning, durability assessment and sustainable construction practices to support improved construction outcomes. Emphasis is to be placed on standardised assessment and certification to raise practice levels across diverse construction roles.

Practical learning elements will include workshops, site demonstrations, technical seminars and exposure visits to plants and RMC facilities to strengthen applied skills and on?site decision making. The Director General indicated confidence that a large number of professionals and workers would be trained over the next three to five years under the initiative. The partnership is designed to complement flagship government schemes such as the Skill India Mission and to align training outputs with national infrastructure priorities.

By combining the council’s technical mandate with industry experience, the initiative aims to develop a more skilled and quality?conscious workforce capable of meeting rising demand in infrastructure and housing. NCB will continue to coordinate programme delivery and quality assurance while industry partners provide practical exposure and technical inputs. The collaboration is expected to support long?term capacity building and more sustainable construction practices nationwide.

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Concrete

JSW Cement Commissions Nagaur Plant, Enters North India

New Rajasthan unit boosts capacity to 24.1 MTPA and expands reach

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JSW Cement has strengthened its national presence by commencing production at its greenfield integrated cement plant in Nagaur, Rajasthan, marking its entry into the north Indian market.
With this commissioning, the company’s installed grinding capacity has increased to 24.1 MTPA, while total clinker capacity, including its joint venture operations, stands at 9.74 MTPA.
The Nagaur facility comprises a 3.30 MTPA clinkerisation unit and a 2.50 MTPA cement grinding unit, with an additional 1.00 MTPA grinding capacity currently under development. Strategically located, the plant is positioned to serve high-growth markets across Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the NCR.
The project has been funded through a mix of equity and long-term debt, with Rs 800 crore allocated from IPO proceeds towards part-financing the unit.
Parth Jindal, Managing Director, JSW Cement, stated that the commissioning marks a key milestone in the company’s ambition to become a pan-India player. He added that the project was completed within 21 months and positions the company to achieve its targeted capacity of 41.85 MTPA by FY29.
Nilesh Narwekar, CEO, JSW Cement, highlighted that the expansion aligns with the company’s strategy to tap into rapidly growing northern markets driven by infrastructure development. He noted that the company remains focused on delivering high-quality, eco-friendly cement solutions while progressing towards its long-term capacity goal of 60 MTPA.
The Nagaur plant has been designed with sustainability features, including co-processing of alternative fuels and a 7 km overland belt conveyor for limestone transport to reduce road emissions. The facility will also incorporate a 16 MW Waste Heat Recovery System to improve energy efficiency and lower its carbon footprint.
JSW Cement, part of the JSW Group, operates across the building materials value chain and currently has eight plants across India, along with a clinker unit in the UAE through its joint venture.

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