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Southern Comfort

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If southern manufacturers are able to restore pricing in subdued markets, earnings may potentially surprise in FY18, says Vaibhav Agarwal of PhillipCapital.

We visited cement manufacturers, channel partners, builders and contractors in south India in the 2nd week of January 2017 for an update on the current situation and the forward outlook. The feedback from southern India continues to remain very positive, especially the volume commentary. Price upticks are likely to be seen in pockets where pricing is subdued (for example, in markets like Maharashtra and Gujarat, where southern players have an exposure).

In markets where prices are already buoyant, no major upticks may be expected. Cost pressures will be felt in Q3 with increase in fuel prices, but we don’t expect all companies to face a similar impact on the cost front.

Ramco Cement is believed to be best placed with high inventories of low cost fuel which will suffice requirements till 1QFY18. Debt repayment continues to remain the key objective of southern companies, and we see no deviation in management commentary on this front. India Cements is expected to repay debt of more than Rs 2 billion in the current fiscal, and the run rate is likely to increase in FY18. The commentary on east India volumes also seems to be encouraging, and Dalmia Bharat will be amongst the key beneficiaries here. We reiterate’Buy’ calls on south Indian cement manufacturers and maintain our price objectives with +50 per cent returns expected in our coverage universe of southern manufacturers.

No impact of demonetisation
The feedback from all southern Indian leaders continues to suggest that there has been no impact of demonetisation on volumes for cement manufacturers. All manufacturers are expected to report high double-digit growth in Q3. This is partially on account of low base effect, but even if we compare on a sequential basis, the volume impact for southern companies is likely to be very marginal (largely flattish). Notably, Q3 is a weak quarter for south India as it is the monsoon quarter.

Turnaround year for capacity utilisations
Management commentary remains extremely positive on volumes. Good demand revival is being sensed by southern manufacturers in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The commentary also remains very positive on eastern volumes. Both manufacturers and channel partners expect FY18 to be a turnaround year and expect utilisation uptick of 4-5 per cent for the region as a whole, from current utilisations of about ~60 per cent.

Focus on volumes
We see that all southern Indian cement manufacturers are now refocusing on volume growth with the support of demand and by establishing newer markets outside of the region where the volumes can be pushed. For example, we were told that India Cements is targeting nearly 1 million tonnes of sales in export markets in FY18 (~10 per cent of sales). Fresh orders for specialised cements to select manufacturers are also helping the company ramp up capacity utilisation and support blended realisations. They don’t expect much to come in from cement prices as they seem happy with the stable price scenario. However, they will try hard to push prices in subdued markets.

Our take

  • Despite demonetisation, Q3 will not be a disappointing quarter for south India-based manufacturers. EBITDA/tonne (Rs 100-150) decline will be largely on account of marginal price correction and cost push.
  • Volumes continue to remain strong though y-o-y volume growth may tone down in Q4 due to high base effect.
  • We reiterate’Buy’ on southern manufacturers. There are no disappointments expected in FY18 earnings. Along with volumes, if southern manufacturers are also able to restore pricing in subdued markets, earnings may potentially surprise in FY18.

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Concrete

Dhanekula Institute Signs MoU with Adani Cement

Agreement to expand internships, industrial visits and practical learning

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The Department of Civil Engineering at Dhanekula Institute of Engineering & Technology, Ganguru, organised an industrial interaction programme under the Adani FutureX Programme on Thursday. The programme focused on strengthening engagement between the institute and the cement industry while giving students greater exposure to professional practices.

Yedukondalu, technical head for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana at Adani Cement, delivered a technical lecture on concrete as a man-made material. The session covered the importance of concrete in construction, its properties and applications, and its significance in modern infrastructure development.

The lecture also addressed the role of quality cement and suitable concrete technology in supporting durable and sustainable construction. The discussion connected classroom learning with the technical considerations involved in infrastructure projects and construction practices.

A key part of the programme was the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the Department of Civil Engineering and Adani Cement under the Adani FutureX Partnership Agreement. The agreement is intended to strengthen industry-academia collaboration through opportunities for student internships and industrial visits.

The initiative is expected to provide students with practical exposure, improve their understanding of industrial practices and help bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and real-world applications. Dhanekula Institute Chairman Dhanekula Ravindranath Tagore, Secretary Dhanekula Venkata Bhavani Prasad and Director DKRK Ravi Prasad supported the initiative, with the institute leadership highlighting the importance of industry-institution interaction in enhancing students’ technical employability.

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Concrete

JK Lakshmi Cement Begins Rs. 110 bn Assam Plant Project

Project Kamakshi will produce 2.5 mn t of cement annually by FY2029.

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JK Lakshmi Cement has laid the foundation stone for Project Kamakshi, its first integrated cement manufacturing facility in Assam, marking the company’s entry into Northeast India. The groundbreaking ceremony took place at Umrangso village in Dima Hasao district in the presence of Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

The project involves an investment of Rs. 110 bn, including the mining lease. It will have annual cement production capacity of 2.5 mn t and a 1 mn t clinkerisation unit, with completion scheduled for FY2029.

The facility is expected to create more than 2,000 jobs and will primarily serve the growing Northeast market. It will also include dedicated railway sidings for transporting raw materials and finished cement, supporting supply chain reliability and regional distribution.

Chairperson and Managing Director Vinita Singhania said the project represented the beginning of a long-term relationship with Assam and the wider Northeast. She said the plant would help provide locally produced cement, employment and dependable supplies as the region’s infrastructure development accelerated, while enabling the company to grow alongside the communities it serves.

The investment supports JK Lakshmi Cement’s strategy of expanding into high-growth markets beyond its established presence in Northern, Western and Eastern India. The company expects the project to contribute to regional economic development and infrastructure growth while pursuing its long-term objective of achieving net-zero emissions by 2047.

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Concrete

Kshatriya Engineering College Signs MoU with Adani Cement

Agreement to provide students with industrial exposure and training

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The civil engineering department of Kshatriya Engineering College in Nizamabad has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Adani Cement to provide students with industry-oriented training and practical exposure. The agreement is intended to connect classroom learning with workplace requirements in the construction sector.

Under the partnership, students will receive opportunities to take part in industrial visits and internships. The arrangement will also include guest lectures by industry experts and guidance on live projects, allowing students to gain first-hand understanding of industry practices and emerging construction technologies.

College secretary and correspondent Aljapur Devender said the initiative was designed to bridge the gap between academic instruction and industry expectations. He said the collaboration would help students develop practical skills and improve their employment prospects after completing their studies.

Principal Dr Katakam Srinivas said exposure to industrial practices was important for civil engineering students and would complement their academic learning. He said the MoU would support the development of their technical knowledge and confidence through greater familiarity with professional work environments.

Administrative officer B. Narender said the collaboration would familiarise students with modern construction technologies, quality standards and project management practices. Civil engineering department head N. Deepika said the agreement would help students understand recent developments in the construction sector and prepare for professional careers. The college said the partnership would give learners a broader view of the processes and standards followed in the industry, while helping them relate their academic studies to practical project requirements.

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