Economy & Market
On the Growth Path
The cement industry is likely to be driven by growth in rural demand and a pick-up in the infrastructure sector during FY2017, says an ICRA report.
ICRA, a professional investment and credit rating agency, expects the cement demand growth, which was relatively muted at 5 per cent in FY2016, to pick up to 6 per cent in FY2017 and further to 7 per cent in FY2018.
Demand growth during FY2017 is likely to be driven by the pick-up in the infrastructure segment, primarily road projects and the housing segment during the next one year; this apart, there is a likelihood of a recovery in the rural demand from H2 FY2017, given expectations of a better monsoon.
Further, in the southern markets, the demand is also likely to be supported by the construction of a new capital for Andhra Pradesh and the focus on irrigation and water grid schemes by Telangana.
With the pace of new capacity addition slowing down, ICRA expects to show an improvement especially in FY2018, which should support cement prices and profitability indicators for cement manufacturers.
Cement demand during Q4 FY2016 witnessed a rebound driven by a pick-up in the infrastructure segment owing to government spending.
ICRA estimates the utilisation at 70 per cent in FY2016, and given the capacity overhang, the capacity utilisation is likely to remain moderate at 71 per cent in FY2017 but it is expected to improve to 75 per cent in FY2018, driven both by the pick-up in demand as well as the slowdown in new capacity addition.
The eastern region will lead the capacity expansion, while the southern region, which had witnessed the highest capacity addition in the last five years, will see a considerable slowdown in capacity addition during this period.
Improvement in the capacity utilisation in the north, west and east is likely to support the cement prices in these regions in the near term. While the demand is expected to improve in the south, the capacity utilisation is likely to remain lower. Thus, pricing discipline will remain critical for the profitability of the mills in the south in the near term. On an all-India basis, the profitability and debt protection metrics are likely to show a moderate improvement in FY2017.
The ICRA study on select cement companies shows that most cement companies in the sample in the study have reported either a decline or a modest year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in revenues in FY2016. Only two companies, namely OCL India Limited and JK Lakshmi Cement Limited, registered a double-digit y-o-y revenue growth due to volumetric growth aided by capacity expansion.
The profitability margins of most cement companies declined or reported moderate increase on a y-o-y basis (except for south-based companies) during FY2016 when compared to FY2015.
Overall lower cement prices in the northern and western regions during FY2016, coupled with an increase in raw material and freight costs, have impacted the operating profitability of the mills located in these regions.
While the debt coverage metrics for the north-based companies declined on a y-o-y basis in FY2016, the same has improved substantially for the south-based companies.
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Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology
India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.
According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.
Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.
The Regulatory Push Is Real
The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.
Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.
Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem
Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.
The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.
Engineering a Made-in-India Answer
At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.
Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.
Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.
The Investment Case Is Now
The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.
The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.
The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.
The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.
About The Author
Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.
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