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Global cement market to reach $592.38 bn by 2032, growing at 4.3% CAGR

The profitability of the Indian cement sector has been under pressure.

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The global cement market, valued at $405.99 billion in 2023, is forecasted to grow to $423.24 billion in 2024 and $592.38 billion by 2032, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3 per cent, as indicated in a report by Infometrics Ratings.

The World Cement Industry Outlook suggests that global cement consumption is likely to recover modestly, with growth estimated between one and two per cent.

In India, cement production volumes experienced a decline during the June 2024 quarter, primarily due to extreme heat and a slowdown in construction activities associated with elections. This led to subdued demand, with most manufacturers reporting reduced volumes, though a few major companies performed better.

Construction activities, however, are expected to accelerate in the September 2024 quarter, with cement consumption projected to grow by 4.1 per cent. Despite this seasonal improvement, pricing challenges persist. Cement prices, which were weak in the June 2024 quarter, are anticipated to face rollbacks despite an increase in September, driven by continued demand softness.

Regional price trends reveal significant variations, with the southern region experiencing the steepest declines. Nonetheless, prices remain one to two per cent higher than the previous year.

The profitability of the Indian cement sector has been under pressure, attributed to lower price realisations and rising input costs. Although sales volumes are expected to rise compared to the previous year, revenue growth is likely to be constrained due to reduced realisations. Operating profit margins shrank by 60 basis points to 14 per cent during the June 2024 quarter.

The cement industry plays a vital role in India’s infrastructure development, benefiting from the government’s allocation of Rs 11.11 trillion for capital expenditure in FY2024-25. Real estate and public infrastructure projects, which are significant drivers of cement consumption, are projected to sustain demand. Initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and increased investments in highway and metro projects are also expected to support the sector’s growth.

Additionally, the Indian cement industry is addressing its substantial carbon footprint, which accounted for 5.8 per cent of the country’s CO2 emissions in 2022. In 2023, greenhouse gas emissions were reduced to 0.56 tonne of CO2 per tonne of cement, with a target to lower this further to 0.35 tonnes by 2050. Initiatives such as the Low Carbon Technology Roadmap (LCTR) and the Perform, Achieve, and Trade (PAT) Scheme highlight the sector’s commitment to sustainability.

Concrete

Jefferies’ Optimism Fuels Cement Stock Rally

The industry is aiming price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

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Cement stocks surged over 5% on Monday, driven by Jefferies’ positive outlook on demand recovery, supported by increased government capital expenditure and favourable price trends.

JK Cement led the rally with a 5.3% jump, while UltraTech Cement rose 3.82%, making it the top performer on the Nifty 50. Dalmia Bharat and Grasim Industries gained over 3% each, with Shree Cement and Ambuja Cement adding 2.77% and 1.32%, respectively.

“Cement stocks have been consolidating without significant upward movement for over a year,” noted Vikas Jain, head of research at Reliance Securities. “The Jefferies report with positive price feedback prompted a revaluation of these stocks today.”

According to Jefferies, cement prices were stable in November, with earlier declines bottoming out. The industry is now targeting price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

The brokerage highlighted moderate demand growth in October and November, with recovery expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, supported by a revival in government infrastructure spending.
Analysts are optimistic about a stronger recovery in the latter half of FY25, driven by anticipated increases in government investments in infrastructure projects.
(ET)

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Steel Ministry Proposes 25% Safeguard Duty on Steel Imports

The duty aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports.

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The Ministry of Steel has proposed a 25% safeguard duty on certain steel imports to address concerns raised by domestic producers. The proposal emerged during a meeting between Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi, attended by senior officials and executives from leading steel companies like SAIL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and AMNS India.

Following the meeting, Goyal highlighted on X the importance of steel and metallurgical coke industries in India’s development, emphasising discussions on boosting production, improving quality, and enhancing global competitiveness. Kumaraswamy echoed the sentiment, pledging collaboration between ministries to create a business-friendly environment for domestic steelmakers.

The safeguard duty proposal aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports, particularly from free trade agreement (FTA) nations. Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik noted that 62% of steel imports currently enter at zero duty under FTAs, with imports rising to 5.51 million tonnes (MT) during April-September 2024-25, compared to 3.66 MT in the same period last year. Imports from China surged significantly, reaching 1.85 MT, up from 1.02 MT a year ago.

Industry experts, including think tank GTRI, have raised concerns about FTAs, highlighting cases where foreign producers partner with Indian firms to re-import steel at concessional rates. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava also pointed to challenges like port delays and regulatory hurdles, which strain over 10,000 steel user units in India.

The government’s proposal reflects its commitment to supporting the domestic steel industry while addressing trade imbalances and promoting a self-reliant manufacturing sector.

(ET)

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India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Panel Aluminium Frames

Move boosts domestic aluminium industry, curbs low-cost imports

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The Indian government has introduced anti-dumping duties on anodized aluminium frames for solar panels and modules imported from China, a move hailed by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) as a significant step toward fostering a self-reliant aluminium sector.

The duties, effective for five years, aim to counter the influx of low-cost imports that have hindered domestic manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Finance, Chinese dumping has limited India’s ability to develop local production capabilities.

Ahead of Budget 2025, the aluminium industry has urged the government to introduce stronger trade protections. Key demands include raising import duties on primary and downstream aluminium products from 7.5% to 10% and imposing a uniform 7.5% duty on aluminium scrap to curb the influx of low-quality imports.

India’s heavy reliance on aluminium imports, which now account for 54% of the country’s demand, has resulted in an annual foreign exchange outflow of Rupees 562.91 billion. Scrap imports, doubling over the last decade, have surged to 1,825 KT in FY25, primarily sourced from China, the Middle East, the US, and the UK.

The AAI noted that while advanced economies like the US and China impose strict tariffs and restrictions to protect their aluminium industries, India has become the largest importer of aluminium scrap globally. This trend undermines local producers, who are urging robust measures to enhance the domestic aluminium ecosystem.

With India’s aluminium demand projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, industry leaders emphasize the need for stronger policies to support local production and drive investments in capacity expansion. The anti-dumping duties on solar panel components, they say, are a vital first step in building a sustainable and competitive aluminium sector.

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