Economy & Market

“India has miles to go in cement consumption”

Published

8 years ago

May 31, 2018

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Anoop Kumar Saxena, CEO – VICAT in India

How do you see the growth prospects for the industry during the current year and in the next three years? Have you seen any hints on growth, by now?
India has miles to go in terms of cement consumption and there is enough headroom for strong cement demand. Two strong reasons:
(i) Even after seven decades of independence, and nearly two-and-a-half decades of globalisation, India is one of the lowest per capita consumers of cement. Average consumption in India is just approximately 200 kg/year compared to 1,700 kg/year in China and 660 kg/year in Vietnam (comparable developing economy). The global average consumption is far ahead at 580 kg per year.
(ii) Although India is the second-largest producer of cement, there is disconnect between country’s GDP growth and cement output.
Prudent policy formulation and robust spending by the Government to create infrastructure & housing for all can drive floating hope into reality. Cement demand is expected to grow approximately 7 to 8 per cent YoY over the next 2-3 years. Currently, country’s cement production capacity is 441 MT and expected to increase to 467.3 MT by 2019 and likely to further increase to 484.1 MT by 2020-2021. Significant concentration of the cement capacities will continue to increase in southern and western regions largely due to bulk of limestone reserves in these regions. We expect cement demand to recover healthily from the impact of the government’s demonetisation policy and the early impact of GST implementation over the next couple of quarters.
Last quarter performance is indicating that rural housing and infrastructure demand is recovering strongly, although demand has not picked up in the real estate segment. Cement demand increased by 11 per cent and 18 per cent respectively in third and fourth quarter of 2017-18.What are the triggers for your views on the Industry’s growth prospects and how they are set to impact demand in your view?
Rising urbanisation, an increasing number of households and higher employment are primarily driving the demand for housing, accounting for
60 per cent of total cement consumption.
?? Initiatives undertaken by the government are expected to provide an impetus to construction activity in rural and semi-urban areas through large infrastructure and housing development projects, respectively.
?? The affordable housing segment has been in focus with two major schemes providing a fillip to growth, including Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban (PMAY-U) and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Gramin (PMAY-G).What are the changing dynamics of cost and profitability of the industry during the current year, from the present standpoint?
Cost inflation (primarily energy cost) and low pricing power are key challenges of Industry during current year. The demand-supply balance drives cement pricing, like in any other commodities. Given that demand-supply gap will continue in the range of 100-140 MT for the next two to three years, overall capacity utilisation will hover 70-75 per cent. Hence, we believe that there will not be pricing power to drive the profitability, prices will go up and down during period with no significant improvement at all.
Input cost curve has continued to deteriorate due to higher diesel, petcoke and coal prices, as well as an increase in import duty of petcoke. It is very difficult for industry to pass the hike in input prices immediately as because consolidations by various players, the market share stabilisation would be key agenda which will not keep in driving price increase. Plant efficiency, logistics efficiency and mitigate the risk of increasing cost of fuel and other raw material to maintain the profitability.How do you see the three segments of cement demand – residential, infrastructure and industrial construction – are set to boost/impact cement demand this year?
Housing: (55 per cent) sector is expected to grow by 5-6 % mainly due to following reason:
?? Housing for all (High Impact): Govt. plans to build 20 million units for economically weaker section by 2002.
?? Several Housing Projects planned by Government for rural segment like PMAY. Also focus on urban sector
Industrial commercial sector is expected to grow by 5-6 per cent mainly due to following reason: Currently weak investment from this segment. But expected to pickup on the back of key policy such as Make in India, etc.
Infrastructure (25 per cent) sector is expected to grow by 10.5 to 12.5 per cent mainly due to following reasons:
Roads & highways (high impact): Investment to increase by 1.8x in five years to Rs 9.8 trillion. Other projects like Bharatmala investment ($16 billion) to drive growth.
Railway (high impact): $134 billion earmarked by RailMin towards sector development through 2019. Further eight corridors ($12-13 billion), several metro projects to drive the demand, metro rail projects, irrigation project in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, Navi Mumbai Airport Project.Housing is by far the biggest contributor to cement demand. Do you see any major recovery on the sector during the reminder of the year with the government’s thrust to ‘Housing for All’ scheme?
Housing accounts for 60 per cent of total demand and rest is accounted by commercial and industrial establishments. Currently, housing demand is not following traditional pattern of market share of total demand and trend shows that demand in this sector has slowed down. However, initiatives undertaken by the government are expected to provide an impetus to construction activity in rural and semi-urban areas through large infrastructure and housing development projects, respectively. Housing for all schemes are largely driven by two major scheme; PMAY-U and PMAY-G and this can drive the recovery of cement demand in housing sector.Pre-poll year is considered to be an infra year. What are the infrastructure areas that may get boost going by last Budget?
We expect demand growth to gain momentum in FY19 because of a relatively steady base and parliamentary elections leading to announcement of new infrastructure projects and the rush for completion of existing projects to showcase them during the elections.What is the demand growth do you foresee for the year in the geographies of your operations and what are triggers?
The southern region will continue to add capacity, although the pace of new addition is likely to taper at approximately 2.4 per cent CAGR over FY16-FY20E. However, with a strong base we expect the demand-supply gap to be significant for any real strong pricing momentum despite the recent strong pick up in the demand. Strong demand revival from the region driven by twin state development of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana since 3QFY18 will keep the demand momentum continuing. However, Shree Cement entry in south India will make south India market more competitive.How the consolidation underway in the industry and expansions coming on stream are set to impact capacity utilisation of the industry during the year?
India’s cement industry is fragmented. About 55-60 per cent market share is controlled by large players and consolidation in cement sector has not significantly changed the share of large players as in the past few years, most of deals are signed between large players. New and mid-size players are likely to lead the consolidation in order to secure market share quickly and get exposure to the desired regions.
QoQ margin for south Indian cement will reduce due to subdued pricing in January-March 2018 and an increase in cost pressure. Higher proportion of sales to infrastructure projects could further dent realisations.

Economy & Market

TSR Will Define Which Cement Companies Win India’s Net-Zero Race

Published

3 days ago

April 27, 2026

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Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology

India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.

According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.

Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.

The Regulatory Push Is Real

The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.

Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.

Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem

Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.

The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.

Engineering a Made-in-India Answer

At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.

Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.

Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.

The Investment Case Is Now

The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.

The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.

The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.

The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.

About The Author

Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.

Concrete

WCA Welcomes SiloConnect as associate corporate member

Published

3 weeks ago

April 13, 2026

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The World Cement Association (WCA) has announced SiloConnect as its newest associate corporate member, expanding its network of technology providers supporting digitalisation in the cement industry. SiloConnect offers smart sensor technology that provides real-time visibility of cement inventory levels at customer silos, enabling producers to monitor stock remotely and plan deliveries more efficiently. The solution helps companies move from reactive to proactive logistics, improving delivery planning, operational efficiency and safety by reducing manual inspections. The technology is already used by major cement producers such as Holcim, Cemex and Heidelberg Materials and is deployed across more than 30 countries worldwide.

Concrete

TotalEnergies and Holcim Launch Floating Solar Plant in Belgium

Published

3 weeks ago

April 13, 2026

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TotalEnergies and Holcim have commissioned a floating solar power plant in Obourg, Belgium, built on a rehabilitated former chalk quarry that has been converted into a lake. The project has a generation capacity of 31 MW and produces around 30 GWh of renewable electricity annually, which will be used to power Holcim’s nearby industrial operations. The project is currently the largest floating solar installation in Europe dedicated entirely to industrial self-consumption. To ensure minimal impact on the surrounding landscape, more than 700 metres of horizontal directional drilling were used to connect the solar installation to the electrical substation. The project reflects ongoing collaboration between the two companies to support industrial decarbonisation through renewable energy solutions and innovative infrastructure development.