Economy & Market

“Green shoots seen in housing segment last fiscal”

Published

8 years ago

May 31, 2018

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Binod Kumar Modi,
Senior Analyst, Reliance Securities

How do you see the three segments of cement demand – residential, infrastructure and industrial construction – are set to boost/impact cement demand this year?
Residential: Green shoots in IHB (Independent House Building) segment were witnessed in the last fiscal. Further, revival in rural economy is also aiding demand growth. We believe residential, which forms a significant proportion of total cement consumption, is likely to remain the major demand driver in subsequent years. Further, government’s incentivised housing projects are likely to ensure sustained demand from residential segment.Infrastructure: The segment forms approximately 25-30 per cent of total cement consumption in India. We believe infrastructure share in total consumption is likely to move higher going forward. Growing urbanisation and huge infrastructure deficit in the country – which requires infrastructure development as to support sustained GDP growth – are likely to ensure higher cement consumption in this segment.Industrial construction: It forms around 5-8 per cent of total cement consumption. Likely revival in private capex is expected to drive higher consumption from this segment.Housing is by far the biggest contributor to cement demand. Do you see any major recovery on the sector during the reminder of the year with the government’s thrust to ‘Housing for All’ scheme?
As we mentioned earlier, there is a visible revival in rural economy as evidenced from robust volume growth by FMCG companies, two-wheelers and tractor volumes with back-to-back normal monsoon. Therefore, considering the fact that rural accounts for >50 per cent of total cement consumption in housing, we believe rural segment should continue to drive cement consumption. Further, post RERA’s initial disruption in urban real estate market, urban real estate markets too will witness traction hereon. Moreover, PMAY is expected to witness healthy momentum in FY19, which is expected to aid demand growth.Pre-poll year is considered to be an infrastructure year. What are the infrastructure areas that may get boost going by last Budget?
Pre election spending has been one of the key demand drivers historically in India. Considering three assembly elections in FY19 and general election in 2019, these are expected to ensure healthy consumption from infrastructure segment. We further expect traction in road construction to continue in FY19 considering 7,400 km (up 70 per cent YoY) projects awarded in FY18. Additionally, Bharatmala programme – which targets to build approximately 34,800 km by 2022 in Phase I, with an estimated investment of Rs 5.3 trillion – is likely to aid sustained demand growth for cement industry.What is the demand growth do you foresee for the year in the geographies of your operations and what are triggers?
We believe all regions should do well going forward as demand momentum has picked up in most of the pockets barring few. Resolution of sand issues in Uttar Pradesh and visible ease of sand availability in Tamil Nadu markets (these two states together consume 45-50 MT annually) are likely to support demand in FY19. We believe that Eastern region (registered double digit demand growth in FY18) continues to be attractive for cement consumption going forward as the region is still underdeveloped compared to other regions.How the consolidation underway in the industry, and expansions coming on stream, are set to impact capacity utilisation during the year?
Consolidation is imperative for Indian cement industry as it is still fragmented. With the ongoing consolidation happening by way of Binani, Century and Murali, no sizeable consolidation appears in sight as of now. However, considering the ongoing high cost scenario and muted realisation environment, it could be difficult for many small and mid-sized cement companies to operate in dismal profitability. Hence, industry consolidation will continue going forward. We foresee the industry to add new capacity of 40-45 MT in next three years as against incremental consumption of 65-70 MT during the same period, which clearly favours utilisation.Hope floats for cement industry. How do you see the growth prospects for the industry during the current year and in the next three years?
There has been a visible demand recovery in FY18 especially in the second half. Cement demand witnessed a growth of approximately 6-7 per cent in FY18 as against negative growth registered in the first half of the fiscal. A substantial recovery in rural demand especially from IHB segment along with sustained pickup in infrastructure development aided demand growth. We believe demand growth for current fiscal should remain healthy mainly to be supported by PMAY housing projects and continued thrust on infrastructure development. We foresee cement consumption to reach 350-360 MT in FY21 translating a CAGR of approximately 7.5 per cent through FY18-FY21E.What are the triggers/reasons for your views on the Industry’s growth prospects and how they are set to impact in your view?
Housing activities (approximately 60-65 per cent of total consumption) continue to remain the key drivers. The government is committed to accomplish its target of construction of 10 million houses under PMAY (Rural) in phase 1, which ends in FY19E. Latest data shows that government could achieve only 38 per cent of its target till FY18. We believe even if government manages to achieve 70 per cent of the balance target, there could be incremental cement consumption of approximately 20 MT in FY19. Further, traction in IHB segment, infrastructure development and pre-election spending are likely to drive cement demand.What are the changing dynamics of cost and profitability of the industry during the current year, from the present standpoint?
A persistent spike in petcoke and diesel prices remains a major headwind for the industry. Having surged by approximately 22-25 per cent in FY18, petcoke prices continued to move northwards till date in FY19. Industry’s power and fuel cost and freight cost together surged by approximately Rs 200-300 per tonne in last one year. We believe cement industry is unlikely to witness any meaningful reduction in fuel prices in FY19E. Hence, realisation improvement is the prime way to support profitability. Pricing scenario in FY18 was soft as all-India average realisation did not witness any improvement. However, there has been some improvement in realisation so far in this fiscal and we expect further price improvement post monsoon.

Economy & Market

TSR Will Define Which Cement Companies Win India’s Net-Zero Race

Published

5 days ago

April 27, 2026

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Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology

India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.

According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.

Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.

The Regulatory Push Is Real

The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.

Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.

Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem

Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.

The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.

Engineering a Made-in-India Answer

At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.

Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.

Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.

The Investment Case Is Now

The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.

The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.

The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.

The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.

About The Author

Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.

Concrete

WCA Welcomes SiloConnect as associate corporate member

Published

3 weeks ago

April 13, 2026

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The World Cement Association (WCA) has announced SiloConnect as its newest associate corporate member, expanding its network of technology providers supporting digitalisation in the cement industry. SiloConnect offers smart sensor technology that provides real-time visibility of cement inventory levels at customer silos, enabling producers to monitor stock remotely and plan deliveries more efficiently. The solution helps companies move from reactive to proactive logistics, improving delivery planning, operational efficiency and safety by reducing manual inspections. The technology is already used by major cement producers such as Holcim, Cemex and Heidelberg Materials and is deployed across more than 30 countries worldwide.

Concrete

TotalEnergies and Holcim Launch Floating Solar Plant in Belgium

Published

3 weeks ago

April 13, 2026

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TotalEnergies and Holcim have commissioned a floating solar power plant in Obourg, Belgium, built on a rehabilitated former chalk quarry that has been converted into a lake. The project has a generation capacity of 31 MW and produces around 30 GWh of renewable electricity annually, which will be used to power Holcim’s nearby industrial operations. The project is currently the largest floating solar installation in Europe dedicated entirely to industrial self-consumption. To ensure minimal impact on the surrounding landscape, more than 700 metres of horizontal directional drilling were used to connect the solar installation to the electrical substation. The project reflects ongoing collaboration between the two companies to support industrial decarbonisation through renewable energy solutions and innovative infrastructure development.