Economy & Market

Monsoon Forecast Augurs Well for Rural Demand

Published

8 years ago

May 31, 2018

admin

The Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) second-stage forecast of ‘normal’ South-West monsoon (June-September 2018), augurs well for cement demand in rural areas. IMD has retained the forecast a normal monsoon at 97 per cent of long term average (LTA) for 2018 season retaining its first-stage forecast released in April 2018. India has seen a 95 per cent actual rainfall last year. Monsoon of between 96-104 per cent of LTA is considered to be normal. The forecast has a model error of 4 per cent on both sides.
If this forecast plays out as predicted, then FY19 (2018-19) will see the third consecutive year of normal monsoon bolstering agricultural income and boosting demand for cement for rural housing.
In the short run, rainfall is likely to be 101 per cent in July and 94 per cent in August, indicating good distribution for sowing and marginally below normal rainfall during harvesting. Geographically, both the critical regions-Central India and South Peninsula (due to high rain dependency)-are expected to receive normal rainfall, according to the forecast.
"Normal monsoon forecast is welcome for the agriculture sector, especially when international food prices are also stablising after persistent decline since mid-2014. This combination of normal monsoon with stabilising international prices at the margin should be supportive of farm incomes," says Kapil Gupta, analyst from Edelweiss Securities.

Distribution favourable
The spatial distribution is important as it determines the availability of water for specific crops. Crops such as cotton, oilseeds and pulses in particular are dependent on monsoon in peninsular India covering states like Maharashtra, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Madhya Pradesh too is dependent on the SouthWest monsoon.
Spatially, rainfall is likely to be well distributed, although temporally rainfall is likely to be marginally below normal in August, which is not much of a concern. Central India and South Peninsula are expected to receive good rainfall at 99 per cent and 95 per cent of LTA, respectively. "This is critical because both the regions are heavily rain dependent and grow oilseeds, pulses, etc., of which India is a net importer," says Gupta.
"The July and August forecast means sowing and harvesting will by and large progress timely. From the inflation perspective as well, normal spatial and reasonable temporal rainfall distribution should result in benign food inflation," Gupta adds. Good tidings
The forecast indicates good tidings for the kharif crop. The kharif crop accounts for about 50 per cent of farm production while around 65 per cent of the production is rain dependent. The northern states have access to irrigation and hence crops like rice are well protected to an extent.
"For FY19, our base case, given a normal monsoon, is that agricultural growth will be 3 per cent – the same as in the previous fiscal. As for GDP growth during the fiscal, CRISIL’s forecast is at 7.5 per cent, up from 6.6 per cent in fiscal 2018," rating agency CRISIL said in April 2018, following the first IMD forecast.
A normal monsoon is crucial to push economic growth, which slowed last year under the lingering impact of demonetisation and disruptions due to implementation of the goods and services tax (GST), both of which impacted private consumption demand as well as exports.Normal monsoon generally heralds good
times for farmers and accelerates activity in rural economy, increasing demand for all agriculture related inputs and equipment, besides boosting demand for rural housing. But it cannot be taken for granted as the whole activity is nuanced by several interventions.
In this context, what CARE Ratings highlights these nuances when it said, "Rainfall per se is important, but in the last two years good monsoon has led to high production while prices have come down sharply affecting farm incomes. This has to be supplemented with effective MSPs which include ensuring availability of this price to the farmers."– BS SRINIVASALU REDDY

Economy & Market

TSR Will Define Which Cement Companies Win India’s Net-Zero Race

Published

1 day ago

April 27, 2026

admin

Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology

India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.

According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.

Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.

The Regulatory Push Is Real

The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.

Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.

Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem

Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.

The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.

Engineering a Made-in-India Answer

At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.

Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.

Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.

The Investment Case Is Now

The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.

The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.

The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.

The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.

About The Author

Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.

Concrete

WCA Welcomes SiloConnect as associate corporate member

Published

2 weeks ago

April 13, 2026

admin

The World Cement Association (WCA) has announced SiloConnect as its newest associate corporate member, expanding its network of technology providers supporting digitalisation in the cement industry. SiloConnect offers smart sensor technology that provides real-time visibility of cement inventory levels at customer silos, enabling producers to monitor stock remotely and plan deliveries more efficiently. The solution helps companies move from reactive to proactive logistics, improving delivery planning, operational efficiency and safety by reducing manual inspections. The technology is already used by major cement producers such as Holcim, Cemex and Heidelberg Materials and is deployed across more than 30 countries worldwide.

Concrete

TotalEnergies and Holcim Launch Floating Solar Plant in Belgium

Published

2 weeks ago

April 13, 2026

admin

TotalEnergies and Holcim have commissioned a floating solar power plant in Obourg, Belgium, built on a rehabilitated former chalk quarry that has been converted into a lake. The project has a generation capacity of 31 MW and produces around 30 GWh of renewable electricity annually, which will be used to power Holcim’s nearby industrial operations. The project is currently the largest floating solar installation in Europe dedicated entirely to industrial self-consumption. To ensure minimal impact on the surrounding landscape, more than 700 metres of horizontal directional drilling were used to connect the solar installation to the electrical substation. The project reflects ongoing collaboration between the two companies to support industrial decarbonisation through renewable energy solutions and innovative infrastructure development.