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Demonetisation and After | Positive Outlook

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Vaibhav Agarwal visited north India to assess the impact of the government’s radical move on the region’s cement industry.

We visited cement manufacturers, channel partners, builders and contractors in north India for an update on the situation and outlook after the government’s demonetisation move.

The channel mechanism in north India is very different from the south; channel partners aren’t as happy, and this is a key reason for price volatility in this region. Even so, most partners sounded positive, especially on demand. A majority of them said that pricing is bound to improve in the region and that all players, including the large northern majors, appear to be in favour of better prices.

Prices should recover steadily in the north over Q4/Q1. The impact of demonetisation is now neutralised. Most of the respondents said that although demonetisation has had an impact, it was much lower than initially anticipated.

North India is a largely cash and carry economy. Most traders either adapted to the situation (accepting payments through bank transfers) or were accepting old currency even after 8 November 2016. In many cases, traders said that a lot of their outstandings were cleared in old currency; a few even recovered written off debts ‘ which kept the cycle up. Most channel partners/dealers we met complained of low net margins irrespective of cement prices. This is one of the key reasons why prices there remain more unstable despite high capacity utilisations.

Also the main reason why most price hikes in the north do not flow through as effectively as they do in the south, is because channel partners simply do not participate in companies’ price hike announcements (a key issue that has remained unaddressed for long).

This segment has also not taken to e wallets and swipe machines and it demands more stringent laws for cheque returns due to the weak channel margin structure in the north. Ergo, almost all partners said that they are not in favour of moving to digital payments.

A 1-2 per cent charge on digital transactions, they say, is a very high cost ‘ one that would take away most of their margins. Barring a few, most dealers didn’t have the mechanism for digital payments. It was said that the largest cement major rolled back the idea of installing swipe machines for channel partners. Trade associations here have approached the government to make laws more stringent for cheque returns, as issuing post dated cheques is the most common business practice there. A change in target customer segments has also helped a few manufacturers.

Smart shift
A few cement manufacturers have made a deliberate and smart shift in focus to accounts within their non-trade sales. These are a sub-segment of non-trade customers where the order flow is more regular, with no payment issues, and no extended credits. We understand that this deliberate shift has helped a few north-based manufacturers (such as JK Cement) to sail through demonetisation better. Construction of toilets and roads are some of the key demand drivers. Almost the entire channel expects prices to be up by a minimum (net) of Rs 25/bag over H1CY17.

We reiterate JK Cement as our top northern pick. Other companies like JK Lakshmi Cement, and Mangalam Cement are also attractive bets. Shree Cement will continue to command a premium due to its ability to perform well in all scenarios.

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Concrete

Cement Prices To Hold Steady Amid Monsoon Slump

Centrum report says demand weakness will limit hikes

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Centrum, a financial services firm, has reported that cement prices are likely to remain largely unchanged in July as weak demand during the monsoon season constrains pricing power. The report noted that construction activity remained subdued in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 owing to labour shortages and slower execution of government projects. While June showed some volume recovery driven by delayed monsoons and quarter end sales, dealers are cautious about sustaining any price increases.

The analysis suggested that seasonal slowdown related to monsoon will prolong demand and pricing challenges through the second quarter. Dealers saw most recent attempts at price hikes as protective measures rather than genuine shifts in market fundamentals. They signalled that pockets of demand in select regions could prompt isolated adjustments but that broad based increases were unlikely while construction activity remained weak. Market participants therefore expected a cautious stance on pricing.

The report highlighted that despite intermittent recovery in shipments during June, the underlying demand trajectory remained muted as monsoon hampered site level activity and logistics. Commercial builders and retail dealers both reported constrained order books and slower payment cycles, which in turn reduced room for margin expansion among manufacturers. Analysts noted that unless government project execution accelerates markedly, demand improvement would be gradual. Price setters were thus likely to focus on protecting market shares rather than pursuing aggressive increases.

Market watchers said the near term outlook would be shaped by monsoon progress and fiscal spending patterns, with any acceleration in public works offering the most tangible support. Traders expected that regional variations would persist and that trade flows between surplus and deficit centres would determine local price movements. The report concluded that stakeholders should prepare for a period of subdued pricing until demand signals strengthen.

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Concrete

Cement Prices Set To Stay Under Pressure In July

Monsoon and weak demand keep prices under strain

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A report by Centrum said cement prices are expected to remain largely flat in July as the monsoon and weak demand weigh on the sector. The report said demand during the first quarter of FY27 remained range-bound and below expectations, with dealers across markets pointing to subdued construction activity, labour shortages, elections, heatwaves and slower execution of government projects as key reasons. It noted that some recovery was witnessed in June due to delayed onset of the monsoon and quarter-end volume push.\n\nDealers across most markets do not expect any meaningful price increases in July, the report said, adding that attempts to raise prices in some markets are aimed at defending existing levels rather than achieving significant gains. The sharp correction following the rollback of April hikes has largely played out across most regions, limiting scope for further immediate increases. Seasonal slowdown in construction activity during the monsoon is expected to continue affecting demand and pricing in the coming months.\n\nCentrum indicated that pricing pressure is likely to persist through the second quarter of FY27 as monsoon-related softness continues. Dealers remain cautious about sustainability of any price rise attempts and do not rule out further weakness during the peak monsoon period. The combination of subdued demand and seasonal factors is likely to constrain the industry’s ability to raise prices in the near term. While June saw some improvement in volumes because of delayed rains and quarter-end sales efforts, the broader demand environment remains challenging.\n\nCement companies are therefore expected to focus on maintaining current price levels rather than pursuing aggressive increases as the sector navigates weak demand and seasonal headwinds. The report suggested that unless demand conditions improve significantly, limited scope will exist for meaningful price recovery. Market participants remain watchful for any shifts in execution of infrastructure projects or construction activity that could alter the outlook.

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Concrete

TARIL Secures Ultra Mega Transformer Order From PGCIL

Order for manufacturing transformers to be delivered in 30 months

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Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited has received Notifications of Awards from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) for multiple contracts to manufacture transformers and undertake associated works. The company submitted the disclosure to BSE and the National Stock Exchange under Regulation 30 of the SEBI Listing Regulations. The submission cited security code 532928 and trading symbol TARIL, and the filings cite the award reference and confirm execution in accordance with the terms and conditions stipulated in the notifications.

The contracts are described as an Ultra Mega Order under the company classification, indicating a value at or above Rs 10 billion (bn) on conversion. The filing identifies the contracts as domestic orders and specifies a scheduled delivery period of 30 months. The scope covers manufacturing of transformers of various ratings together with all associated work. The order size places it in the highest project classification defined in the company’s disclosure.

The disclosure states that the promoter group and group companies have no interest in the awarding entity and that the contracts do not constitute related party transactions. The company noted that the awards will be executed in the normal course of business and not fall within related party transactions. The document reiterates that the company is committed to delivering high quality products and services and has established itself as a leading manufacturer of transformers in the country over time.

Chief Financial Officer Mehul Shah authorised the filing and requested the exchanges to take the information on record, with the company providing the requisite filing reference in its submission. The company indicated that the orders will be executed as per the notifications of awards and the applicable regulatory framework. The original filing is available on the stock exchange portal at the provided link.

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