Connect with us

Economy & Market

Rerating Quarter

Published

on

Shares

It’s time to revisit mid-cap stock valuations and there are potential target upgrades over the medium to long term, says VAIBHAV AGARWAL of PhillipCapital India.

Ground checks and interactions with various stakeholders in the cement industry suggest that significant potential upsides exist for mid-cap stocks over the medium to long term. Given a favourable demand scenario, we understand cement prices have been raised across pockets by ~10 per cent and further price hikes of 3-5 per cent cannot be ruled out in May 2017.

After the monsoon arrives, cement prices are unlikely to be increased until the end of H1FY18. Even if prices drop, we expect them to remain 5-6 per cent higher than March prices. The Goods and Services (GST) tax regime is unlikely to make an unfavourable impact on cement prices; if it benefits due to GST, the industry may pass on some of those gains. EBITDA may surge in FY18/19 if robust cement price hikes sustain. Rerating of valuations is imminent for mid-cap stocks and we do not rule out potential target upgrades in the medium to long term.

Positive Volume Commentary
Even assuming flat volumes in Q1, this will be a rerating quarter for the sector. We have seen volume commentary turning positive, but volume concerns persist in a few pockets (Tamil Nadu, Kerala and parts of Central India). Despite assuming flat volume growth for the sector, Q1 earnings are likely to surprise quite positively, driven by price hikes. In a conservative scenario (0 to -5 per cent), year-on-year (y-o-y) volume growth and with the current cement prices, Q1 sectoral EBITDA/tonne is likely to improve by 20-40 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), 15-20 per cent y-o-y; absolute EBITDA could shoot up by a minimum of 15-20 per cent. With volumes turning favourable and no rollbacks in cement prices over the next two months, the potential is huge.

Mid-cap cash flows are robust and likely to accelerate debt repayments. Mid-cap stock valuations have always had the overhang of higher debt versus large caps. However, debt repayment for most mid-caps is likely to accelerate in Q1 as the sector sees robust cash generation. This will be a key rerating factor and is likely to drive valuations. We expect good sense will prevail in the sector and players will not rush in with fresh capex announcements.

Players are evolving and this makes prices more stable over the long run. Historically, price hikes have always been a call for concern (break in price discipline). We do not rule out intermittent price disturbances, but we understand that players are evolving.

Stable Pricing
Even newcomers to the industry understand the need for stable prices; they are also debt-ridden and cannot afford to operate in an unfavourable price scenario. This gives us confidence that price hikes are more sustainable than in the past. FY18 should be a turnaround year for stock valuations; we do not rule out the possibility of a partial rollback of the recent price hikes. However, even in a conservative scenario (if only 4-5 per cent price hikes sustain in FY18), EBITDA/tonne has the potential to improve by 10-15 per cent or even higher in certain cases.

Valuation gaps
The largest major of the sector trades at a per tonne valuation of $200, while most mid-caps trade at $70-120. As the scenario turns favourable and as mid-caps get rid of debt faster than expected, this valuation gap could narrow, to say, about 25 per cent discount to large-caps. The potential upsides can be huge.

We do not rule out potential target upgrades in the medium to long term; our current price targets for most mid-caps have built-in target valuations of $70-120/tonne. We see the valuation gap between mid-caps and large caps narrowing as sectoral dynamics turn favourable. We see further re-rating of mid-caps over the medium to long term.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Concrete

Cement Makers Reaffirm Commitment to Sustainable Growth

Published

on

By

Shares

World Environment Day spotlight on innovation and circularity

On World Environment Day, the Indian cement industry reiterated its commitment to supporting India’s climate ambitions through sustainable manufacturing, resource efficiency and the adoption of cleaner technologies.

The Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) said the sector remains aligned with the Government of India’s Net Zero commitments and is accelerating efforts to reduce its environmental footprint while supporting the country’s infrastructure and development agenda.

Parth Jindal, President, CMA and Managing Director, JSW Cement, said the industry is increasingly adopting cleaner technologies, improving energy efficiency and expanding the use of alternative fuels and raw materials. He also highlighted the growing importance of circular economy practices, where industrial by-products and waste streams from one sector are utilised as resources in another.

“The Indian Cement Industry is aligned to the Government’s commitments on carbon mitigation and is accelerating the adoption of cleaner technologies, resource efficiency and circular economy practices while actively exploring the potential of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) as a critical pathway for deep decarbonisation,” said Jindal.

He added that coprocessing industrial waste and by-products helps conserve natural resources, reduce disposal requirements and lower the environmental footprint across multiple sectors.

According to Jindal, sustainability is no longer limited to manufacturing processes but is increasingly influencing investment decisions, innovation strategies and long-term growth plans within the industry.

Echoing similar views, Dr Raghavpat Singhania, Vice President, CMA and Managing Director, JK Cement, said sustainable development extends beyond emissions reduction and must also focus on responsible resource utilisation and waste minimisation.

“Sustainability in the built environment cannot be measured by emissions alone. It is equally about how efficiently we use resources, how effectively we minimise waste and how responsibly we create the infrastructure that will serve future generations,” said Singhania.

He noted that the cement industry is advancing its sustainability agenda through greater resource efficiency, increased circularity, technological innovation and continuous improvements in manufacturing practices. As a key contributor to India’s infrastructure development, the sector has a critical role to play in balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility.

On the occasion of World Environment Day, industry leaders reaffirmed their commitment to supporting India’s climate goals while delivering the materials required for resilient, durable and sustainable infrastructure.

 

Continue Reading

Concrete

Building a Greener Future Together

Published

on

By

Shares

Environmental sustainability requires immediate action, not just long-term commitments and discussions. Recycling, circular economy practices, and technology-driven waste management can help industries reduce environmental impact while supporting sustainable growth.

Author: Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology

World Environment Day serves as an important reminder that environmental sustainability can no longer remain confined to discussions, reports, or long-term commitments. The environmental challenges facing the world today demand immediate, measurable, and collective action. Across industries and communities, waste generation continues to outpace our ability to process it responsibly, placing increasing pressure on ecosystems, natural resources, public health, and the well-being of future generations.

One of the most significant shifts required today is a change in how society perceives waste. Rather than being viewed as a material to be discarded, waste must be recognised as a valuable resource that can contribute to both economic growth and environmental protection when managed through the right technologies and systems. This mindset forms the foundation of the circular economy model that countries across the world are increasingly adopting to reduce landfill dependence, recover valuable materials, and create more sustainable industrial ecosystems.

India has made meaningful progress in strengthening awareness around sustainability, recycling, and environmental responsibility over the past decade. Significant efforts are being made to formalise the recycling sector through improved infrastructure, technology adoption, policy implementation, and broader stakeholder participation. These developments are creating a stronger foundation for responsible waste management and resource recovery across the country.

However, achieving long-term environmental impact requires collaboration from all stakeholders. Industries, policymakers, technology providers, and communities must work together with greater accountability to strengthen recycling ecosystems, encourage responsible waste management practices, and create sustainable outcomes through consistent execution rather than temporary interventions.

As someone closely associated with the recycling industry, I firmly believe that technology will play a decisive role in addressing future environmental challenges. Advanced recycling systems have the potential to recover valuable resources, reduce pollution, minimise landfill burdens, and conserve energy, creating a more sustainable future for generations to come. This belief is deeply reflected in Fornnax’s motto, “Committed to Create a Green Future,” which embodies our commitment to building long-term environmental value through innovation and responsible action.

At the same time, technology alone cannot deliver meaningful change. Real progress requires intent, awareness, participation, and a shared sense of responsibility. Sustainable development can only be achieved when innovation is supported by collective action and a genuine commitment to environmental stewardship.

On this World Environment Day, let us move beyond conversations and take meaningful steps towards creating a cleaner, greener, and more sustainable planet. By embracing innovation, strengthening recycling ecosystems, and acting responsibly today, we can create lasting environmental impact and secure a better future for generations to come.

Continue Reading

Concrete

Dalmia Bharat Acquires Jaiprakash Associates Cement Assets for ₹2,850 Crore

Published

on

By

Shares

Dalmia Cement executed a Business Transfer Agreement with Jaiprakash Associates and Adani Infra, to acquire 5.2 MnTPA of cement capacity across Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

Dalmia Cement (Bharat) announced on May 22, 2026 that it had signed a Business Transfer Agreement with Jaiprakash Associates Limited and Adani Infra (India) Limited for the acquisition of cement plants located at Rewa in Madhya Pradesh and Churk, Chunar and Sadwa in Uttar Pradesh. The deal was struck at an enterprise value of ₹2,850 crore and is expected to close within two weeks of execution.

The acquired assets from Jaiprakash Associates include 5.2 MnTPA of cement capacity and 3.3 MnTPA of clinker capacity. The package also covers 99 MW of thermal power capacity and railway sidings at Rewa, Chunar, and a common siding at Churk. This infrastructure gives the acquisition immediate operational utility beyond just production tonnage.

The transaction has a long backstory. Dalmia Cement had originally entered into a framework agreement with Jaiprakash Associates in December 2022, covering the sale of these business assets along with a long-term clinker supply arrangement. However, before the deal could be completed, Jaiprakash Associates was admitted to insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. The earlier agreements could not be consummated as a result.

In an official statement, Puneet Dalmia, Managing Director & CEO, Dalmia Bharat, said, “I am very excited about addition of these assets in our portfolio. This serves as a great strategic fit for Dalmia. It helps us move forward in our journey to be a pan India player and provide a strong head start to serve the high potential markets in Central region. I am optimistic that the expansion potential of these assets along with close proximity with Dalmia’s captive mines will help us create a capacity hub for the future”.

Following the approval of Adani Group’s resolution plan for Jaiprakash Associates under the IBC framework, Dalmia approached the new management to revive discussions. The fresh Business Transfer Agreement was executed to settle all pending disputes, legal proceedings, and arbitration matters arising from the original framework agreement with Jaiprakash Associates.

Expanding market reach

Dalmia added, “Our familiarity with these assets under the earlier tolling arrangement gives us a deep understanding of the facilities and helps us establish strong connect with channel partners and vendors. We believe that this will help us in faster ramp up of capacities and quicker inroads into the market. As we look forward, I am very confident that we will be able to leverage the strengths of Dalmia to operate these assets in a manner where we can maximise value creation for all our stakeholders.”

With the addition of these plants, Dalmia Bharat’s total installed cement capacity will rise to 54.7 MnTPA upon consummation. The company has further expansion projects underway at Belgaum, Pune, and Kadapa, which are expected to take overall capacity to 66.7 MnTPA by Q2 to Q3 FY28.

The Central India location of the Jaiprakash Associates plants gives Dalmia Bharat faster access to markets in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh than a greenfield build would have allowed. The company also cited debottlenecking and brownfield expansion as near-term opportunities at the acquired sites. Dalmia Bharat said the assets were expected to contribute positively to EBITDA and overall returns, given the pricing environment in the region and the company’s cost structure.

Continue Reading

Video Thumbnail

    SIGN-UP FOR OUR GENERAL NEWSLETTER


    Trending News

    SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER

     

    Don't miss out on valuable insights and opportunities to connect with like minded professionals.

     


      This will close in 0 seconds