Concrete

The Great Indian Disruption

Published

4 years ago

January 16, 2023

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From witnessing the entry of the Adani Group directly at No 2 position to dealing with margin compression, hike in commodity and fuel prices and decline in net profits, the Indian cement industry is living the aftermath of a big disruption.

It all started in the year 2020. As the Covid-19 pandemic hit the world, the cement industry felt its devastating effects, too. That was the beginning of the disruption. Two years later, the Indian cement industry experienced a paradigm shift with the entry of the Adani Group and the exit of Holcim. The current scenario involves the economic changes that are likely to have a long-term impact on the industry. Let us look at the great Indian disruption of the cement industry.

The Recap
According to reports, the Adani Group had been planning to enter the cement industry for some time and it had also formed a subsidiary called Adani Cement Industries Ltd in June 2021. The company was apparently planning to build an integrated plant in Kutch, Gujarat, and grinding units in Dahej, Gujarat, and Raigad, Maharashtra. It also won limestone blocks in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Rajasthan by bidding process.

The sudden entry by Adani through aggressive bidding changed the industry gesture. As soon as Holcim announced its exit from the Indian market, a brutal bidding war took place to acquire its assets, and at the end of it, the assets were acquired by the Adani Group. This is India’s largest M&A transaction in the infrastructure and materials sector.
Billionaire Gautam Adani’s entry into the cement industry with the acquisition of Holcim-listed cement assets in India, namely ACC and Ambuja Cement, for an amount of just less than $10 billion may lead to unification in the industry as large players may try to gain smaller marginal players. In a speech at an event to mark the completion of the acquisition, the Adani Group Founder and Chairman said the ports-to-energy has in a single stroke become the second largest manufacturer in the country only behind UltraTech cement. A few days after the acquisition of ACC and Ambuja Cement, Adani announced his plans to double the existing cement manufacturing capacity of 70 million tonnes per year within the next five years, putting it close to market leader UltraTech Cement, and becoming the most profitable manufacturer in India till 2030, which will definitely benefit the cement industry.
With the cement sector historically growing at 1.1 per cent to 2 per cent higher than the GDP Adani expects the cement sector to grow to 8 per cent to 10 per cent. Gautam Adani’s acquisition of cement giants Ambuja and ACC from Holcim has set off a rally in both stocks adding a sufficient amount to investors’ wealth. As per analysts, ACC and Ambuja Cement will benefit from Adani’s acquisition by acquiring 63.1 per cent of Ambuja Cement along with related assets. With the government’s push to build infrastructure in India cement demand is likely to stay strong with ACC and Ambuja to benefit in the long run, the analysts added. According to Adani, Ambuja Cement and ACC operations are energy intensive, and when combined with Adani’s renewable power generation capabilities these operations
can gain a great benefit that is a must for the Indian industry.

The entry of Adani, which renovated the boards of ACC and Ambuja Cement to reflect the largest takeover in India’s infrastructure sector, would infuse Rs 20,000 crore in Ambuja Cement through preferential allotment of shares, which will further strengthen Ambuja’s balance sheet and fulfill the capital requirements for economic development, further additions and investments in technology. This investment reveals Adani’s commitment to the cement sector and an attempt to completely transform the cement sector. With Ambuja and ACC in its fold, the Adani group will now have nine listed companies in the stock market.
Adani’s foray into the cement industry is the tip of the iceberg. The larger picture involves the exponentially growing infrastructure sector in the country. Here’s how Adani’s presence has made a difference to other players and market dynamics, and is likely to continue:

Solidifying and unifying the company’s operations in real estate and infrastructure
Backward integration of its assets in other heavy industries such as coal and power
With the combined capacities of Ambuja and ACC, Adani commands the second highest cement manufacturing capacity of 70 million tonnes
Mandatory open offers in both the companies led to their respective share prices spiking up
Clearly Adani will aim for the No. 1 position, and that will have the company scouting for mergers and acquisitions.
Adding to its existing capacity is another important way in which the company will try to increase cement production.

The Real Twist
The real estate market faced the repercussions of the pandemic at a maximum. Today, as the necessary corrections have been done, we are looking at changing trends, which are having a direct impact on the demand for cement.
Shraddha Kedia-Agarwal, Director, Transcon Developers, said, “In the post-Covid world, there is a shift in demand for sea-facing homes with large open spaces like balconies, terraces, courtyards, gardens, and parks in the vicinity. Work-from-home and the hybrid work culture have changed the pattern for most home buyers in the post-Covid era. Owning a home is no more a matter of investment preference, but a necessity, given the boost that a luxury residence has come to lodge in the wider perspective of the work-life choices. The latest trends of customer preferences have shifted from premium real estate to a more sophisticated approach, buyers who want to get a lifestyle that can flawlessly include the work-from-home notion, while not giving up on the lavishness and comforts of luxury living. These trends are expected to continue in 2023 as well.”
She also pointed out that with RERA ensuring transparency and laws allowing 100 per cent FDI in construction, Indian real estate is witnessing sharp investment infusions from NRIs. The new class of ultra-rich people is on a buying spree of luxury homes in global cities like Mumbai, Bangalore, etc. The Indian markets are proving their grit and potential, it is now time for investors to decide if they want to benefit from India’s future potential.
“With the rise in cement cost and other building material costs, the same will eventually be carried forward to the buyer. This is a basic entrepreneurial rule. New launches will be expensive. In their initial stages, they may be at a 10 to 20 per cent lower cost, but I am foreseeing a rise in real estate price of about 18 to 20 per cent in the near future,” says Ketan Patel, Director, Akshar Group.
Pointing out the change in consumer behaviour, he said that when the price of projects increase, there is a setback of 10 to 15 per cent in the overall sales funnel. “What we have observed over the years is that the number of enquiries go down when there is an increase in price. However, the customer who is looking to buy a house or property or upgrade does come through and convert as a customer.”

The Big Picture
The objective of the Adani Group behind this takeover is to move beyond its central business of power plants, ports, and coal mine operations and expand into new fields such as airports, data centres, and digital services. Entering the cement industry is, no doubt, a part of that plan.
With so many companies moving their manufacturing operations to India, the country’s status as a preferred manufacturing destination has become firm, and with Adani’s entry, both of these will together lead to a multiplier effect on jobs and income, higher productivity, cost-effectiveness, and higher consumption. With the entry of Adani into cement considering additional capacities in western and eastern regions in the last three-quarters Adani aims that he should be able to grow at a rate faster than the industry and outperform other competitors.
In October 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the PM Gati Shakti- National Master Plan (NMP) for multiple modes of connectivity. Gati Shakti will drive synergy to create an outstanding, seamless transport network in India. The Gati Shakti Scheme will give a much-needed advantage to infrastructure development and handling across India which will bring economic growth and will boost the cement industry. The plans to expand highways and create new cargo terminals under the PM Gati Shakti – National Master Plan will not only boost the competitiveness of the Indian industry by lowering the cost of transportation but also lead to better connectivity between production centers and consumption markets, both domestic and global. With this Master Plan, Adani Group will benefit from the economies of scale for its infrastructure business. This will raise the demand for cement in the future.
Holcim, in a statement, had said, “The corresponding offer share prices of Rs 385 for Ambuja Cement and Rs 2,300 for ACC Cement express into cash proceeds of CHF 6.4 billion for Holcim.” As per analysts, the deal is positive from a long-term perspective as it will help them in bringing down costs, and trim debts, which will lead to better margins and high returns. The deal also highlights the growing supremacy of Indian companies to complete the last transactions with foreign players and help Adani Group increase its global impression and would also help in the backward alliance as the company is constructing airports and other infrastructure projects. This will also help the sector to turn the weaker demands that have hurt the sector so far towards the sector.
The takeover of the Holcim Group’s stake in Ambuja Cement and ACC Ltd is an opportunity to attain decarbonisation of the cement sector for India to attain targets of reducing the carbon intensity of the Indian economy to below 45 per cent by 2030 and almost nil by 2070.
The Adani Group is willing to judge all opportunities present there and will consider one that is strategically correct and available at a reasonable valuation. While with the takeover of the Holcim stake in ACC Ltd. and Ambuja Cement is an opportunity for Adani to position breakthrough technologies and raise its standards in the cement sector globally. But it is sure that Adani’s entry will affect the competition and soon Adani will fit in the hard-to-abate cement in their green dream.

The Cost Impact
The cement industry has so far not been able to improve cement prices to the required extent to pass on an increase in input energy costs.
Jatin Shah, Chief Technical Officer and Managing Director, TDD, Colliers India, “Cement price as per last report has risen by about 9 per cent in October 2022 compared to March 2022. Other components like steel, aluminium, copper, etc, which are significant contributors also remain volatile. The construction cost has gone up due to various factors like labour cost and cost of transport coupled with material price volatility. This remains a concern for the developer, contractors and will continue to impact the industry.”
He advises developers to keep an eye on the fluctuating prices. He says, “Volatile market leads to hedging of prices. We recommend the developers to remain watchful for bulk procurement and approach projects with Just in time approach, tweak contracts to bring in more materials linked to basic prices and take contractors into confidence.”
In an earlier statement from Colliers India, Ramesh Nair, Chief Executive Officer, India and Managing Director, Market Development, Asia, Colliers, commented, “Costs of key construction materials are likely to remain volatile for next few months due to uncertainties created by geo-political issues, persistent lockdowns in China and a probable global recession. Prices of key construction materials will hinge on multiple factors including global economic situation, inflation rates and supply constraints. Therefore, developers are likely to push new launches till the input prices further decline, as any further surge in the cost of construction materials would impact the timely delivery of ongoing projects and disrupt their cash flows resulting in increase in housing prices.”
Speaking about the immediate effect of the rising costs, Vinit Tiwari, Chief Sales Officer, Nuvoco Vistas Corp Ltd, says, “ Consolidation has resulted in an organised market, and processes will be streamlined as a result. We anticipate that competition will become more intense in the future as more companies enter the market with expanded capacity, but at Nuvoco, we are focusing on our key competencies: quality, innovation, and value for money. We are advancing our core competency of offering premium products while maintaining our core values. As part of our efforts, we are strengthening our supply chain and digitising the purchasing process.”

The Price Factor

A report by Motilal Oswal titled ‘Cement: Demand Recovery Seen but Price Volatility Continues’, the following points have been elucidated about the recovering demand for cement.
Cement demand has recovered in the last few weeks largely driven by government infrastructure projects, while trade demand has remained muted. We expect 7 per cent demand growth YoY in 3QFY23, aided by the low base of last year. Our discussions with industry participants indicate that YTD volume growth in the non-trade segment (15 per cent YoY growth) is better than the trade segment (3-4 per cent YoY growth).
Post 2QFY23, while the Eastern region has witnessed a consistent price improvement, the Northern and Central regions have yet to see a sustained price improvement. The pan-India average price seems to be up 2-3 per cent QoQ in 3QFY23.
Volatility continues in coal/petcoke prices, with petcoke prices falling in Nov/Dec ’22 and coal prices increasing in the last few weeks. We expect an average energy cost reduction of Rs 50-70/t in 3QFY23 and INR100/t in 4QFY23.
Average spreads (cement price net of GST- variable costs) for the industry is expected to improve by Rs 200/t QoQ (v/s INR300/t estimated earlier), given the rollback of price hikes announced in Nov ’22.

Demand recovers from mid-Nov ’22, east and south outperforming

After demand weakness due to the festive season in Oct ’22, cement demand recovered from mid-Nov ’22, and we believe that volumes grew 18-20 per cent YoY in Nov ’22, aided by the absence of festive seasons and the low base of last year due to sand mining issues in the East region. We estimate combined volume growth of 6-7 per cent YoY in Oct-Nov ’22.
We believe that cement demand is driven by improvement from the non-trade segment, largely driven by government infrastructure projects. IHB demand has yet to recover. We expect cement demand to register a growth of 5-6 per cent YoY in Dec ’22 and 7 per cent YoY in 3QFY23.
Demand in the East and South regions seem to be strong, as per our discussions with industry participants. The demand trend is likely to remain positive, given the start of the peak construction period and pre-election government spending toward infrastructure development. We estimate overall demand growth of ~10 per cent YoY in FY23.
The report further highlighted the pricing changes with details on the pan-India average price, which was up ~1 per cent MoM and ~7 per cent YoY in Nov ’22.
Average cement prices increased Rs 5-15/bag MoM in the North, East, and Maharashtra markets, while they declined Rs 5/bag MoM in South India in Nov ’22. Cement prices remained flat in central India and Gujarat.
The highest increase was seen in East India (up ~5 per cent MoM), followed by North and Maharashtra (up ~1 per cent MoM). Cement price in South India declined 2 per cent MoM (except in Kerala, up ~1 per cent). Although cement manufacturers announced price hikes of INR10/bag in Dec ’22, our channel checks indicate that cement prices have dropped by Rs 5-10/bag in the South region from 19th Dec.
The pan-India average price seems to be up ~3 per cent QoQ in 3QFY23 QTD, with the highest increase seen in East (~9 per cent), followed by South and West (~4 per cent each). The average price is flat QoQ in the North, and there should be a marginal decline in central India (down 0.6 per cent QoQ).

Conclusion
“One of the primary concerns is that cement prices have not increased at a rate consistent with the increase in production and distribution costs. As we see it, this is an opportunity for the sector to analyse cost components by line item, from production to distribution. We are currently working on reducing our costs in order to remain competitive,” states Tiwari.
There is definitely an opportunity here. As a new year has dawned, signs of a strong demand revival are already visible for the cement sector. There are corrections in the offing with regards to lower realisations and higher operating costs. Year 2023 is looking promising for cement companies, starting with a rise in demand and price correction, which has already started in East and South India. As the government backs infrastructure projects and
real estate demand picks up pace, the year ahead looks buoyant for India’s cement sector and its disruptors.

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Concrete

CarbonStrong Raises Rs 125 Million To Scale Low Carbon Cement Tech

To build capacity of 100,000 tonnes a year

Published

3 days ago

August 28, 2026

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CarbonStrong has raised Rs 125 million (125 mn) to scale a low carbon cement technology and build commercial production capacity. The startup was founded in 2022 by Harsh Jain and Vikramaditya Singh and has moved from customer trials to plans for industrial supply. The company said its material replaces up to 50 per cent of cement in concrete while reducing costs and improving durability.

CarbonStrong states the product is around 30 per cent cheaper than cement and compatible with existing concrete plants, reducing the need for new equipment and operational disruption. Trials and paid pilots have been conducted in Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai with demonstration projects involving ready-mix firms and precast manufacturers. Compatibility with current workflows forms a central part of the commercial strategy, aiming to ease adoption by builders and contractors.

The funding will support construction of a facility with capacity of up to 100,000 tonnes (100,000 t) a year over the next two years to supply early customers commercially. The firm is also developing materials from steel slag, copper slag and mine tailings to expand its feedstock base, while noting the technical challenge of homogenising different waste streams. Recognition by HCL ClimaForce in 2026 and by the Avaana-Startup India-NITI Aayog AIM Grand Challenge in 2025 has underscored progress.

Industry adoption remains the principal test and will require consistent material performance, supply reliability and competitive economics. CarbonStrong projects the Indian market for cement substitutes could reach Rs 250 billion (250 bn) by 2030 and has set an ambition to produce 10 million tonnes a year by 2035 (10 mn t), a target far above its near term capacity. Moving from pilots to production demands capital, manufacturing discipline and customers willing to specify the material beyond demonstrations. The recent Rs 125 million raise is intended to fund the next phase of scale and to demonstrate that industrial waste can become a dependable input for lower carbon construction.

Concrete

Protect Your Margins

Published

3 days ago

August 28, 2026

admin

In a research-backed article, Dr SB Hegde examines why carbon-adjusted profitability and LC3 will decide the next set of winners in cement manufacturing.

The Indian cement industry has achieved world-class operational efficiency through lower specific energy consumption, high plant utilisation and a reduced average clinker factor of approximately 67.5 per cent. These traditional measures of operational excellence remain essential. However, they are no longer sufficient. Carbon now carries a measurable financial cost under India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and under European carbon markets. Future leadership will be defined by carbon-adjusted profitability, the ability to generate strong returns while systematically lowering the carbon intensity of every ton sold.
Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) offers a practical, scalable pathway to achieve this dual objective. By replacing up to 50 per cent of clinker with calcined clay and limestone, LC3 can reduce CO2 emissions by 30–40 per cent while delivering comparable or superior durability performance.
This article examines the technical foundations of LC3, European industrial practices, the emerging Indian carbon market and a concrete roadmap for Indian companies to embed carbon-adjusted metrics and LC3 into daily operations, incentives and commercial strategy.

Limits of traditional operational excellence
For many years, plant performance has been judged primarily by five indicators: specific heat consumption, specific power consumption, kiln and mill utilisation, clinker factor and overall equipment effectiveness. These metrics drove continuous improvement and helped the industry reduce energy use and increase the share of blended cement. Three structural changes have rendered them incomplete as sole measures of success.
First, carbon now carries a real or opportunity cost. Plants that improve volume or lower cash cost while raising or stagnating emissions intensity create a hidden liability that will surface as CCTS trading matures and as green procurement expands.
Second, lower-carbon products such as LC3 and high-performance blended cements are creating differentiated market segments. Customers in infrastructure, real estate and export-oriented construction are beginning to specify embodied-carbon limits.
Third, investors and lenders increasingly treat carbon intensity as a financial risk factor. Traditional KPIs can mask the divergence between short-term cash profit and long-term carbon-adjusted value.

What is carbon-adjusted profitability?
Carbon-adjusted profitability evaluates normal profit after explicit adjustment for carbon performance. A practical expression is:
Carbon-Adjusted EBITDA = Conventional EBITDA – Carbon Cost + Green Premium Income
Carbon cost may be an internal carbon price, the actual cost of purchasing Carbon Credit Certificates under CCTS, or the opportunity cost of high emissions relative to peers. Green premium income arises when customers pay more for verified lower-carbon cement or when the company sells surplus credits. Tracking both conventional and carbon-adjusted profit side-by-side gives management a clearer picture of value creation under evolving market rules.

Table 1. Traditional KPIs versus Carbon-Adjusted Leadership Metrics
Traditional Focus New Leadership Metric Why It Matters
Specific energy consumption Emissions intensity (kg CO2/t cement) Directly linked to future CCTS and CBAM costs
Kiln utilisation Carbon-adjusted contribution margin Reveals true value of incremental volume
Clinker factor Share of lower-carbon products sold (incl. LC3) Measures commercial success of the transition
Power cost per tonne Effective carbon cost per tonne sold Expose hidden liabilities
Absolute EBITDA Carbon-adjusted EBITDA + green premium Aligning profit with future market reality

LC3: Technical foundations and performance advantages
LC3 is a ternary blended cement that typically combines approximately 50 per cent clinker, 30 per cent calcined clay, 15 per cent limestone and 5 per cent gypsum (the classic LC3-50 formulation). The decisive technical advantage is that clay is calcined at 700–850 °C, far below the 1,450 °C required for clinker production. This lower temperature, together with the substantial reduction in clinker content, delivers CO2 reductions of 30–40 per cent relative to ordinary Portland cement (OPC).
Chemistry is synergistic. Calcined kaolinitic clay (metakaolin) reacts with calcium hydroxide from clinker hydration and with limestone to form additional C-A-S-H gel and carboaluminate phases. These phases densify the microstructure, reduce porosity and improve durability.
Field experience shows superior resistance to chloride ingress, sulphate attack and alkali–silica reaction. Early-age strength can match OPC with high-reactivity clays; later-age strengths routinely meet 42.5 and 52.5 grade requirements.
Importantly, LC3 does not require high-purity kaolin. Clays with 40 per cent or even lower kaolinite content can be activated successfully, expanding raw-material availability across India. Calcination can use adapted rotary kilns or dedicated flash calciners, making the technology compatible with existing plant infrastructure and far less capital-intensive than carbon capture.
Economic analyses show that LC3 can be produced at equal or lower cost than OPC in many locations because of reduced energy demand and cheaper clay. Life-cycle assessments consistently report 30–40 per cent lower embodied CO2 per tonne of cement.
Table 2. Comparative profile: OPC versus LC3-50
Parameter OPC LC3-50
Typical clinker content ~95 per cent ~50 per cent
CO2 emissions (relative) Baseline (≈0.85 t CO2/t cement process + fuel) 30–40 per cent lower
Clay calcination temperature Not applicable 700–850 °C
Key hydration products C-S-H, portlandite, ettringite C-A-S-H + carboaluminates
Chloride & sulphate resistance Good Superior
Production cost potential Baseline Equal or lower in most locations
Infrastructure compatibility Existing High (minor adaptations)

In India, commercial adoption has begun in earnest. JK Cement commenced the first commercial production of LC3 in the Indian subcontinent at its Mangrol plant in Rajasthan in 2025 under BIS standard IS 18189.
By early 2026, approximately 2,000 tonnes had been produced and sold, avoiding an estimated 500 tonnes of CO2. JK Lakshmi Cement followed with commercial launch of its Green PRO LC3 grade from the Jaykaypuram plant. As of mid-2026, two producers are supplying LC3 to the market. The first large-scale infrastructure application is the Noida International Airport (Jewar), where LC3 was used in the runway and a building complex, demonstrating full constructability and performance under demanding conditions. These early volumes are still small relative to national cement demand, but they mark the critical transition from pilot to commercial reality. Companies that scale capacity now will be positioned to capture both CCTS credits and emerging green-procurement demand.

Why the shift is accelerating
According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, direct carbon pricing now covers nearly 30 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions and generated more than US$107 billion in public revenue in 2025. The average global carbon price stands at approximately US$21 per tonne, although regional prices vary widely.
In Europe, the EU ETS price has traded near €80–85 per tonen in mid-2026. Free allocation for cement is being withdrawn in parallel with CBAM. European producers therefore face a clear signal: every tonne of avoided CO2 improves both compliance and competitiveness. Holcim has scaled calcined-clay production, including Europe’s first dedicated line at Saint-Pierre-la-Cour (France) and a second line in the Czech Republic (2026). Heidelberg Materials, Cementir (FUTURECEM) and others have commercialised low-clinker calcined-clay blends across multiple markets, showing that carbon-adjusted profitability is already reshaping capital allocation in the world’s most mature carbon market.India’s CCTS is now operational. Binding emission intensity targets apply to 186 cement facilities for FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27. Average required reductions for integrated plants are modest (around 2.7 per cent by FY 2027), yet the direction is clear.
Trading of Carbon Credit Certificates is expected in the second half of 2026, with early prices likely in the `800–1,500 per tonne range. Plants that outperform targets can sell credits; those that underperform must buy them or face compensation. Cement is well positioned to be a net supplier of credits if clinker factor continues to fall through LC3 and other low-clinker systems.

Way forward for India
India starts from a strong baseline, world-class energy efficiency and a clinker factor already lower than the global average. The next competitive frontier is the deliberate reduction of process emissions through clinker substitution at scale. LC3 is uniquely suited to Indian conditions because suitable clays are widely distributed, the technology fits existing kiln and grinding infrastructure, and the resulting product can meet the performance demands of both infrastructure and building construction.
A practical national pathway contains five interlocking elements:

Standards and acceptance: Accelerated finalisation and promotion of BIS specifications for calcined-clay and limestone–calcined-clay cements will remove a key barrier to commercial uptake. Alignment with European practice (EN 197-5) can facilitate knowledge transfer and export readiness.
Supply-chain development: Investment in flash calcination capacity and systematic characterisation of regional clay deposits will secure reliable, low-cost feedstock. Existing rotary kilns can be adapted for initial volumes while dedicated calciners are built.
Incentive alignment: Part of variable compensation for plant managers, sales teams and senior leadership should be linked to emissions intensity reduction and to the volume of lower-carbon products (including LC3) sold. Without this link, traditional volume and cost targets will continue to dominate behaviour.
Product-level carbon accounting: Reliable measurement of emissions intensity at the individual cement grade level, supported by third-party verification where required, is essential for both CCTS compliance and credible green claims.
Demand-side pull: Green public procurement policies that specify maximum embodied-carbon thresholds for major infrastructure projects will create a predictable market for LC3 and other low-carbon cements, accelerating scale and cost reduction.
Companies that treat LC3 as a strategic product line rather than a niche offering will be better positioned to generate surplus Carbon Credit Certificates, capture any emerging green premium, and protect margins as carbon costs rise.

Organisational changes required
Technical capability alone is insufficient. Three organisational shifts are required.
Daily management: Emissions intensity must appear on the same daily and monthly dashboards as heat consumption, power consumption and utilization. Plant reviews should examine both conventional and carbon-adjusted results.
Incentives: A meaningful portion of bonuses for plant heads, technical teams and sales leadership should be tied to lower emissions intensity and successful commercialisation of LC3 and other low-carbon grades.
Commercial approach: Sales teams need clear volume and pricing targets for lower-carbon products, supported by technical service that helps customers specify and place the material correctly. Without commercial pull, excellent technical performance remains under-utilised.

Table 3. Three-stage roadmap to carbon-adjusted profitability
Time Horizon Priority Actions Expected Outcome
Next 12 months Add emissions intensity to plant dashboards; establish internal carbon price; initiate LC3 pilot production and customer trials Visibility and early organisational learning
12–24 months Revise incentive systems; scale LC3 and other low-carbon grades to key accounts; secure third-party verification capability People and sales aligned with carbon goals
24–36 months Embed carbon-adjusted metrics in board reporting and capital allocation; expand calcined-clay capacity Full system integration and competitive advantage

Questions senior leaders should ask
Boards can accelerate the transition by insisting on answers to a short list of questions:
• Is our carbon-adjusted profit improving, stable or declining relative to conventional EBITDA?
• Did recent volume growth improve or worsen our emissions intensity?
• What share of sales already comes from lower-carbon products, including LC3, and what is the trajectory?
• How exposed is our capital expenditure plan to rising carbon costs under CCTS and potential CBAM-related requirements?
• Do our incentive systems still reward only volume and cost, or have they been updated to include carbon performance?
Treating carbon with the same seriousness as energy cost or kiln utilization does not diminish operational excellence; it expands the definition of excellence to match the new competitive reality.

Looking ahead
By 2030 the gap between leading and lagging cement companies will not be decided by who records the lowest specific heat consumption. It will be decided by who delivers the strongest carbon-adjusted profits.
Absolute emissions may still rise as national production grows. That is not the issue. Companies that reduce intensity year after year and successfully sell cleaner products will pull ahead in both domestic and export markets. Those that do not will fall behind, even if their traditional efficiency numbers look strong.
Operational excellence built the Indian cement industry. It remains the foundation. It is no longer the complete picture. Carbon-adjusted profitability is the clearer measure of success.
LC3 is not a distant technology. It is available now. It cuts CO3 by 30–40 per cent, works with existing plants, and is already in commercial production in India. Companies that treat it as a strategic product, not a pilot, will protect their margins and generate tradable credits.
Leaders who act now will place carbon metrics on daily dashboards, link incentives to intensity reduction and LC3 sales, invest in calcined-clay capacity, and build commercial capability to sell lower-carbon products. They will shape the next chapter of the industry.

References

World Bank. (2026). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP). (2026). India Carbon Credit Trading Scheme – Status and Coverage. Berlin: ICAP.
Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change / Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025). Greenhouse Gases Emission Intensity Target Rules, 2025. New Delhi: Government of India.
Scrivener, K., Martirena, F., Bishnoi, S., & Maity, S. (2018). Calcined clay limestone cements (LC3). Cement and Concrete Research, 114, 49–56.
RMI. (2024). The Business Case for LC3. Rocky Mountain Institute.
European Commission. (2026). EU Emissions Trading System – Allowance Price Data and Free Allocation Phase-out Schedule. Brussels.
Holcim. (2025–2026). Scaling Calcined Clay for Sustainable Building – Corporate Updates on European and Latin American Capacity. Zurich: Holcim Ltd.
LC3 Project / EPFL. (2026). LC3 – A Guide to Best Practices for Scalable, Affordable and Sustainable Low-Carbon Building. Lausanne: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
Business Today / Industry Reports. (2026). First Large-Scale LC3 Application at Noida International Airport, Jewar. New Delhi.
NITI Aayog / Industry Analyses. (2026). Roadmap and Baseline Performance Indicators for the Indian Cement Sector. New Delhi.
Springer / Innovative Infrastructure Solutions. (2026). LC3 Systems: A Review of Chemistry, Performance, Durability and Sustainability toward Market Adoption.
Cementir Holding / Industry Sources. (2025–2026). FUTURECEM and Related Low-Clinker Technologies in Europe.
Climate Risk Horizons & Independent Analyses. (2026). Assessment of Emission Intensity Targets under India’s CCTS for Cement and Other Hard-to-Abate Sectors.
GCCA / TERI. (Various years). Decarbonization Roadmaps for the Indian Cement Industry.
EN 197-5:2021. Cement – Part 5: Portland-composite cement CEM II/C-M and Composite cement CEM VI. European Committee for Standardization.

Concrete

More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe

Published

3 days ago

August 28, 2026

admin

Dijam Panigrahi makes a counterintuitive but data-backed argument that routing every sensor alert through human approval does not make cement plants safer.

India’s cement industry has spent the last two years wiring kilns, mills and coolers with sensors and automated control systems, and the safety case for doing so is strong on paper. Contract workers still make up the majority of the industry’s workforce, and fatal accidents remain a recurring problem. The Indian National Cement Workers Federation has noted that around 83 per cent of workers in the sector hold precarious positions, a fact that resurfaced after an oxygen cylinder explosion killed three contract workers at a plant in Chhattisgarh.
Industry tallies compiled by IndustriALL found cement plants recorded at least seventeen accidents in one year with 21 workers killed, and ten accidents the following year with nine killed, most of them contract staff. Automated monitoring, in theory, closes that gap. A sensor never gets complacent and never skips a check because a shift is short staffed.
However, plants that respond by routing every anomaly reading to a person for approval are quietly building a system that fails the same way understaffing does. When operators receive dozens of flagged deviations a shift, most of them minor, they learn a simple lesson: the fastest way through the queue is to approve without reading closely. The safety benefit disappears, not because the technology failed, but because the humans supervising it adapted to the volume.

Why alerts get ignored
A study cited by manufacturing technology publisher Applied SmartFactory found more than 95 per cent of alarms in a semiconductor fab were low priority, and only about 4 per cent ever triggered an action, with just 100 out of 5,000 alarms accounting for 70 per cent of all alarm activity. The mechanism is the same whether the trigger is a vibration sensor or an AI model flagging a kiln temperature swing. Once the ratio of noise to signal crosses a threshold, workers stop treating the system as a decision aid and start treating it as a formality to clear.
The scale of AI deployment underway makes this more than a theoretical risk. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index Report found organisational adoption of AI has reached 88 per cent, even as documented AI incidents rose to 362 in 2025, up sharply from 233 the year before, according to analysis of the report. The Index also found only about a third of organisations have adopted a formal governance framework, with NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework cited by 33 per cent and ISO/IEC 42001 cited by 36 per cent.
Most manufacturers are deploying monitoring systems faster than they are building the judgment for when a flagged event actually needs a person’s attention. In India, plants run by JK Cement have begun pairing CCTV feeds with AI to define safe zones around heavy machinery, a promising direction that still depends on operators trusting and reading the alerts the system generates.

A three-tier model for cement plant
The fix is not less monitoring or more monitoring. It is classifying decisions by risk and by novelty, rather than treating human oversight as a single switch that is either on or off. A workable model sorts factory floor events into three tiers.
The first tier, proceed, covers deviations the plant has seen before that fall within known safe bounds, such as a kiln feed rate adjustment within an established range. These should run without a stop for approval, because routing them to a person only trains that person to click through.
The second tier, pause, covers events that are unusual but not yet dangerous, such as a vibration reading trending toward a limit or a fuel blend shifting outside its typical mix. These warrant a brief human check before the system proceeds, giving an operator the chance to apply judgment the model does not yet have.
The third tier, escalate, covers events that are both high risk and unfamiliar, such as a pressure reading combined with a temperature spike that has no close precedent in the plant’s history. These should stop the process entirely and require a decision from someone with the authority to shut down a line.

Who should set the threshold
Where these tiers get drawn matters as much as the framework itself. Threshold setting is frequently handed to the vendor supplying the monitoring software or to a plant’s IT department, both of which understand the technology but not the specific tolerances of a given kiln, mill or line. Operations staff, who know that a particular grinding unit runs hotter under monsoon humidity or that a calciner behaves differently after a refractory reline, are better positioned to calibrate what counts as routine on their own equipment.
Handing threshold ownership to operations does not remove IT or vendors from the process, but it puts the calibration decision closest to the people who live with its consequences on the floor.

Signals that oversight is actually working
A few concrete indicators reveal whether a monitoring setup is functioning as intended or simply providing the appearance of safety. The escalation rate over time is the first: a rate that stays flat or climbs slowly as operations mature is healthy, while one that spikes and then falls sharply often means operators have started overriding the system rather than engaging with it. Time to resolution is the second: escalations that take progressively longer to close suggest fatigue or confusion about ownership, not diligence. The third, and most telling, is how accurate the system’s own uncertainty estimates turn out to be, meaning whether events flagged as high risk actually correlated with real incidents, and whether events waved through stayed incident free. A system whose escalations do not track with actual outcomes trains operators toward the same complacency that unmonitored equipment produces.
None of this argues against automation in Indian cement manufacturing, where a labor structure built on contract work and a track record of serious accidents make better monitoring an urgent need. It argues for treating human oversight as a design problem with three distinct settings, rather than a single
dial turned up whenever a plant wants to look safer on paper.

About the author:
Dijam Panigrahi, Co-founder and COO, GridRaster, is a spatial computing platform for industrial enterprises and manufacturers.