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A volatile market leads to hedging of price

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Jatin Shah, Chief Technical Officer and Managing Director, TDD, Colliers India, discusses the various aspects of the construction business that are getting affected by the fluctuations in cement prices and input costs.

How has the rise in cement and building materials costs impacted your business?
Cement price as per last report has risen by about 9 per cent in October 2022 compared to March 2022. Other components like steel, aluminium, copper etc., which are significant contributors
also remain volatile. The construction cost has gone up due to various factors like labour cost and cost of transport coupled with material
price volatility. This remains a concern for the developer, contractors and will continue to impact the industry.

As the costs are expected to remain volatile for a few more months, is there any change in your strategy or approach towards the launch of new projects?
The volatile market will impact developers.
The launch of projects by grade A developers will not be impacted as these developers do command a premium. However, the projects in tier II cities and grade B developers will witness a restraint unless there is some stability in the market, since they operate on thin margins. Apart from on-going Russian-Ukraine conditions, we may observe challenges due to a new surge in Covid-19 infections in some countries.

Tell us about the impact on the timely delivery of developer projects.
Developers (grade A) will continue to deliver their projects. Thanks to RERA and incremental involvement of end buyers and investment from funds, projects will be delivered with only small delays. The impact, as mentioned earlier, will mostly be on the grade B developers or the projects planned in tier II cities where possibly a wait and watch policy may happen.
How has consumer behaviour changed with a change in property costs? Do you expect the demand to decrease?
The residential sector has seen a good run
since the pandemic. Sales momentum has remained intact despite the rise in construction costs and property prices, led by robust demand for home ownership and schemes offered by developers during the festive season. However, led by increased property prices and rise in interest rates, we might see some moderation in demand in the short term. The demand might see a drop in affordable and mid-segment, while the demand for the luxury segment is expected to remain firm.

What is the major challenge that you have come across with the rising costs and how are you combating the same?
A volatile market leads to hedging of prices.
We recommend the developers to remain watchful for bulk procurement and approach projects with just-in-time approach, tweak contracts to bring in more materials linked to basic prices and take contractors into confidence. The transparency between developer and contractors at this stage will insulate both from the issues of fluctuating prices. Additionally, the selection of material, of suppliers and vendors should be reviewed holistically and not only be driven by the ‘lowest price’ concept.

How do you envision the future of real estate development and consumer behaviour with the rising cost of cement and other construction materials?
Real estate investments will continue to remain in focus and a preferred investment vehicle. Focus may shift to investments in grade A assets or projects by grade A developers where end buyer / user has the confidence on projects being
completed in time and with quality. While developers are expected to step ahead with caution, consumers might also adopt a wait and watch approach for decision making.

-Kanika Mathur

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Concrete

Cement Prices To Hold Steady Amid Monsoon Slump

Centrum report says demand weakness will limit hikes

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Centrum, a financial services firm, has reported that cement prices are likely to remain largely unchanged in July as weak demand during the monsoon season constrains pricing power. The report noted that construction activity remained subdued in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 owing to labour shortages and slower execution of government projects. While June showed some volume recovery driven by delayed monsoons and quarter end sales, dealers are cautious about sustaining any price increases.

The analysis suggested that seasonal slowdown related to monsoon will prolong demand and pricing challenges through the second quarter. Dealers saw most recent attempts at price hikes as protective measures rather than genuine shifts in market fundamentals. They signalled that pockets of demand in select regions could prompt isolated adjustments but that broad based increases were unlikely while construction activity remained weak. Market participants therefore expected a cautious stance on pricing.

The report highlighted that despite intermittent recovery in shipments during June, the underlying demand trajectory remained muted as monsoon hampered site level activity and logistics. Commercial builders and retail dealers both reported constrained order books and slower payment cycles, which in turn reduced room for margin expansion among manufacturers. Analysts noted that unless government project execution accelerates markedly, demand improvement would be gradual. Price setters were thus likely to focus on protecting market shares rather than pursuing aggressive increases.

Market watchers said the near term outlook would be shaped by monsoon progress and fiscal spending patterns, with any acceleration in public works offering the most tangible support. Traders expected that regional variations would persist and that trade flows between surplus and deficit centres would determine local price movements. The report concluded that stakeholders should prepare for a period of subdued pricing until demand signals strengthen.

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Concrete

Cement Prices Set To Stay Under Pressure In July

Monsoon and weak demand keep prices under strain

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A report by Centrum said cement prices are expected to remain largely flat in July as the monsoon and weak demand weigh on the sector. The report said demand during the first quarter of FY27 remained range-bound and below expectations, with dealers across markets pointing to subdued construction activity, labour shortages, elections, heatwaves and slower execution of government projects as key reasons. It noted that some recovery was witnessed in June due to delayed onset of the monsoon and quarter-end volume push.\n\nDealers across most markets do not expect any meaningful price increases in July, the report said, adding that attempts to raise prices in some markets are aimed at defending existing levels rather than achieving significant gains. The sharp correction following the rollback of April hikes has largely played out across most regions, limiting scope for further immediate increases. Seasonal slowdown in construction activity during the monsoon is expected to continue affecting demand and pricing in the coming months.\n\nCentrum indicated that pricing pressure is likely to persist through the second quarter of FY27 as monsoon-related softness continues. Dealers remain cautious about sustainability of any price rise attempts and do not rule out further weakness during the peak monsoon period. The combination of subdued demand and seasonal factors is likely to constrain the industry’s ability to raise prices in the near term. While June saw some improvement in volumes because of delayed rains and quarter-end sales efforts, the broader demand environment remains challenging.\n\nCement companies are therefore expected to focus on maintaining current price levels rather than pursuing aggressive increases as the sector navigates weak demand and seasonal headwinds. The report suggested that unless demand conditions improve significantly, limited scope will exist for meaningful price recovery. Market participants remain watchful for any shifts in execution of infrastructure projects or construction activity that could alter the outlook.

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Concrete

TARIL Secures Ultra Mega Transformer Order From PGCIL

Order for manufacturing transformers to be delivered in 30 months

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Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited has received Notifications of Awards from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) for multiple contracts to manufacture transformers and undertake associated works. The company submitted the disclosure to BSE and the National Stock Exchange under Regulation 30 of the SEBI Listing Regulations. The submission cited security code 532928 and trading symbol TARIL, and the filings cite the award reference and confirm execution in accordance with the terms and conditions stipulated in the notifications.

The contracts are described as an Ultra Mega Order under the company classification, indicating a value at or above Rs 10 billion (bn) on conversion. The filing identifies the contracts as domestic orders and specifies a scheduled delivery period of 30 months. The scope covers manufacturing of transformers of various ratings together with all associated work. The order size places it in the highest project classification defined in the company’s disclosure.

The disclosure states that the promoter group and group companies have no interest in the awarding entity and that the contracts do not constitute related party transactions. The company noted that the awards will be executed in the normal course of business and not fall within related party transactions. The document reiterates that the company is committed to delivering high quality products and services and has established itself as a leading manufacturer of transformers in the country over time.

Chief Financial Officer Mehul Shah authorised the filing and requested the exchanges to take the information on record, with the company providing the requisite filing reference in its submission. The company indicated that the orders will be executed as per the notifications of awards and the applicable regulatory framework. The original filing is available on the stock exchange portal at the provided link.

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