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Core sectors output growth remain negative for Nov 2020

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In November 2020, the eight core sectors output growth remained in a negative trajectory for the ninth successive month. Rather after showing an improvement in September 2020, it has been deteriorated persistently in October 2020 and November 2020. During the month, the eight core sectors output contracted by 2.6 per cent year on year as against the 0.7 per cent growth in the same month of last year. The output growth during the month was also lower than the 0.6 per cent de-growth in October 2020. The decline in growth can be ascribed to persistent fall in crude oil, refineries, natural gas, steel output.

For October 2020, the core sector growth has been revised upwards from -2.5 per cent (prov.) to -0.9 per cent (first revision) on account of improved production in steel, cement and electricity sector.

The cumulative index of eight core sector during April ??November 2020 contracted by 11.4 per cent indicative of the adverse impact on industrial production during the lockdown period compared with the 0.3 per cent growth in the corresponding period of last year. There was a broad based contraction across sectors during this period barring fertilizer, the output of which grew by 3.8 per cent due to favourable monsoon and sowing season this year.

Key highlights:

  • Coal production growth slowed in November 2020 and the output grew by 2.9 per cent at a four month low (11.7 per cent growth in October 2020). However, it was better when compared with the 3.5 per cent contraction in the same month of FY20. Revival in demand for power post easing in lockdown and resumption of industrial activities has along with favourable base has led to increase in output in coal.

  • Crude oil production contracted for three successive years. In November the crude oil production declined at a slower 4.9 per cent compared with the 6 per cent de-growth in November 2020. Fall in production can be ascribed to low realisations due to Covid restrictions/lockdown, technical mishaps due to Covid-19 implications, reservoir issues and shut in of wells and reduced off take.

  • Natural gas production also declined for nearly 2 years. In November 2020, the natural gas output contracted by 9.3 per cent, higher than the 6.4 per cent decline in November 2019. Closure of Gas wells in western offshore due to Hazira Plant shutdown, low upliftment/demand of gas by the major customers like power plants, bandhs/blockade by local people and associations, etc. after the Baghjan Blowout among others weighed on overall production during the month.

  • Refinery production, having high weightage in eight core (28 per cent), contracted for successive 9 months in a row. However, the pace of contraction moderated in November 2020 to -4.8 per cent compared with the -17 per cent de-growth in the previous month. In November 2019, however, the refinery output had grown by 3.1 per cent. Low capacity utilisation and low product demand due to Covid impact led to decline in production during the month.

  • Fertilizer output, grew by 1.6 per cent in November 2020, lower than the 13.6 per cent growth in November 2019 and 6.3 per cent in October 2020. Expected increase in demand during the ongoing Rabi season might have supported the growth during the month.

  • Output of steel sector contracted for the first time in the past 4 months in November 2020 by 4.4 per cent as against the 7 per cent growth in November 2019 and 4 per cent growth in October 2020. Low demand from automobile sector, high raw material costs and relatively muted construction activities with lockdown imposition in parts of the country must have weighed on the steel production.

  • After witnessing a revival in October 2020, the cement production took a hit in November 2020 and contracted by 7.1 per cent compared with the 4.3 per cent growth in November 2019 on account of likely muted construction activities with resurgence in infection cases and subsequent restrictions on activities.

  • Electricity production grew by 2.2 per cent albeit at a slower pace by 2.2 per cent in November 2020 than the 11.2 per cent growth in the previous month but was better than the 4.9 per cent contraction in the same month of last year.

CARE Ratings??View

Going ahead, the eight core sectors growth would be contingent on the ease in restrictions along with high base effect. On account of fall in eight core sector growth the IIP growth for this month could see only marginal improvement between 0 to 1 per cent.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Rucha Ranadive, Economist, CARE Ratings. Can be contacted at: rucha.ranadive@careratings.com | Tel: +91-22-6837 43406

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Ltd. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis/inferences/views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

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Concrete

Cement Prices To Hold Steady Amid Monsoon Slump

Centrum report says demand weakness will limit hikes

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Centrum, a financial services firm, has reported that cement prices are likely to remain largely unchanged in July as weak demand during the monsoon season constrains pricing power. The report noted that construction activity remained subdued in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 owing to labour shortages and slower execution of government projects. While June showed some volume recovery driven by delayed monsoons and quarter end sales, dealers are cautious about sustaining any price increases.

The analysis suggested that seasonal slowdown related to monsoon will prolong demand and pricing challenges through the second quarter. Dealers saw most recent attempts at price hikes as protective measures rather than genuine shifts in market fundamentals. They signalled that pockets of demand in select regions could prompt isolated adjustments but that broad based increases were unlikely while construction activity remained weak. Market participants therefore expected a cautious stance on pricing.

The report highlighted that despite intermittent recovery in shipments during June, the underlying demand trajectory remained muted as monsoon hampered site level activity and logistics. Commercial builders and retail dealers both reported constrained order books and slower payment cycles, which in turn reduced room for margin expansion among manufacturers. Analysts noted that unless government project execution accelerates markedly, demand improvement would be gradual. Price setters were thus likely to focus on protecting market shares rather than pursuing aggressive increases.

Market watchers said the near term outlook would be shaped by monsoon progress and fiscal spending patterns, with any acceleration in public works offering the most tangible support. Traders expected that regional variations would persist and that trade flows between surplus and deficit centres would determine local price movements. The report concluded that stakeholders should prepare for a period of subdued pricing until demand signals strengthen.

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Concrete

Cement Prices Set To Stay Under Pressure In July

Monsoon and weak demand keep prices under strain

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A report by Centrum said cement prices are expected to remain largely flat in July as the monsoon and weak demand weigh on the sector. The report said demand during the first quarter of FY27 remained range-bound and below expectations, with dealers across markets pointing to subdued construction activity, labour shortages, elections, heatwaves and slower execution of government projects as key reasons. It noted that some recovery was witnessed in June due to delayed onset of the monsoon and quarter-end volume push.\n\nDealers across most markets do not expect any meaningful price increases in July, the report said, adding that attempts to raise prices in some markets are aimed at defending existing levels rather than achieving significant gains. The sharp correction following the rollback of April hikes has largely played out across most regions, limiting scope for further immediate increases. Seasonal slowdown in construction activity during the monsoon is expected to continue affecting demand and pricing in the coming months.\n\nCentrum indicated that pricing pressure is likely to persist through the second quarter of FY27 as monsoon-related softness continues. Dealers remain cautious about sustainability of any price rise attempts and do not rule out further weakness during the peak monsoon period. The combination of subdued demand and seasonal factors is likely to constrain the industry’s ability to raise prices in the near term. While June saw some improvement in volumes because of delayed rains and quarter-end sales efforts, the broader demand environment remains challenging.\n\nCement companies are therefore expected to focus on maintaining current price levels rather than pursuing aggressive increases as the sector navigates weak demand and seasonal headwinds. The report suggested that unless demand conditions improve significantly, limited scope will exist for meaningful price recovery. Market participants remain watchful for any shifts in execution of infrastructure projects or construction activity that could alter the outlook.

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Concrete

TARIL Secures Ultra Mega Transformer Order From PGCIL

Order for manufacturing transformers to be delivered in 30 months

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Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited has received Notifications of Awards from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) for multiple contracts to manufacture transformers and undertake associated works. The company submitted the disclosure to BSE and the National Stock Exchange under Regulation 30 of the SEBI Listing Regulations. The submission cited security code 532928 and trading symbol TARIL, and the filings cite the award reference and confirm execution in accordance with the terms and conditions stipulated in the notifications.

The contracts are described as an Ultra Mega Order under the company classification, indicating a value at or above Rs 10 billion (bn) on conversion. The filing identifies the contracts as domestic orders and specifies a scheduled delivery period of 30 months. The scope covers manufacturing of transformers of various ratings together with all associated work. The order size places it in the highest project classification defined in the company’s disclosure.

The disclosure states that the promoter group and group companies have no interest in the awarding entity and that the contracts do not constitute related party transactions. The company noted that the awards will be executed in the normal course of business and not fall within related party transactions. The document reiterates that the company is committed to delivering high quality products and services and has established itself as a leading manufacturer of transformers in the country over time.

Chief Financial Officer Mehul Shah authorised the filing and requested the exchanges to take the information on record, with the company providing the requisite filing reference in its submission. The company indicated that the orders will be executed as per the notifications of awards and the applicable regulatory framework. The original filing is available on the stock exchange portal at the provided link.

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