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Core sector output rose to 32-months high in March 2021

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The eight core sector output rose to 32-months high of 6.8 per cent in March 2021 chiefly on account of a negative base of -8.5 per cent in the corresponding month of the previous year. Therefore, one needs to read the core sector growth number with caution. The pick-up observed in March 2021 has been on account of significant double-digit growths witnessed in steel, cement, electricity and natural gas, where the production activity had seen a sharp decline in March 2020 on the back of the imposition of the nation-wide lockdown. The contraction witnessed in the month of February 2021 has been revised upwards to -3.8 per cent as against the previous estimate of 4.6 per cent.

For the full fiscal FY21, the core sector has contracted by 7 per cent compared with a subdued pace of 0.4 per cent in FY20. This is the first time in the last eight years when core sector output has declined. In 8 of out the 12 months during the fiscal, core sector output has seen a contraction, reflective of the adverse impact of the pandemic and the consequent lockdowns on the production activities of the 8-core sector. During the year, there has been a broad-based decline across almost all the sectors with the impact being sharp in refinery products, steel and cement sector. Fertiliser has been the only sector which has seen positive growth, which reflects unabated performance of the agriculture sector despite the lockdown while the impact on electricity production has been relatively lower as resumption of economic activities in the second half of the fiscal pushing up the growth number.

Key highlights:

  • Coal production recorded its sharpest contraction in the new series with the base year 2011-12. The de-growth of 21.7 per cent in March 2021 has come against a positive base of 3.7 per cent in March 2020 and it also reflects high level of coal inventories with coal producers. However, there has been a sequential improvement owing to healthy demand from the power steel and cement sector.

  • Crude oil production fell by 3.1 per cent in March 2021 compared with a decline of 5.5 per cent in March 2020 and this is the 40th consecutive month of negative growth for the sector. This decline can be ascribed to delays in installation of new platforms due to COVID-19 restrictions, localised lockdowns and lower planned contribution from work-over, drilling and old wells. Natural gas production rose sharply by 12.3 per cent in March 2021, its highest growth in the new series with the base year 2011-12. This is the first time the segment has recorded positive growth after 21 consecutive months of deceleration. The positive growth has been on account of a low base (-15 per cent in March 2020) coupled with production commencement of natural gas from one of the key players in the private sector.

  • Refinery production declined by 0.7 per cent in March 2021 compared with 0.5 per cent in March 2020, recording the 13th consecutive month of decline in production. Although there has been a sequential improvement, the fall can be ascribed to lower demand for petroleum products and annual maintenance and installation shutdown for some plants.

  • Fertiliser production continued to decline for the second consecutive month. The fall in production has been sharper in March 2021 by 5 per cent compared with 3.7 per cent in February 2021 but is better than 11.8 per cent decline in March 2020. The YoY decline is the sharpest in the last one year.

  • Steel (23 per cent), cement (32.5 per cent) and electricity (21.6 per cent) have registered positive growth of above 20 per cent during March 2021 and is primarily on account of a statistical base effect. However, year-end phenomenon of infrastructure projects being on track coupled with State governments and Central government expediting capex plans have provided the impetus and the same is reflected in the numbers. Sequentially too all three sectors have registered a notable pickup. In case of steel, producers ramped up production backed by higher export demand and realisations.

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The March, April and May 2021 growth numbers for core sector and industrial growth was expected to be high on the back of sharp declines registered last year. The core sector growth numbers for the next two months are likely to be elevated as the decline in April and May 2020 were sharper than March 2020. Hence, we must be cautious in reading the growth numbers for the next two months also as the theme of March 2021 is likely to carry forward. IIP growth for March 2021 is likely to be closer to double-digit mark given the decline of 16.7 per cent last year.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

The article is authored by Sushant Hedem who is Associate Economist with CARE Ratings. He can be contacted at: sushant.hede@careratings.com | +91-22-6837 4348.

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Limited. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis / inferences / views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

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Concrete

Cement Makers’ Margins To Fall Rs 50-75 Per Tonne Amid West Asia Conflict

Crisil Sees Margins Easing Despite Steady Demand

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Crisil said operating margins of Indian cement manufacturers are expected to decline by Rs 50-75 per tonne (t) this fiscal to Rs 925-950 per t due to higher input costs triggered by the West Asia conflict. The analysis covered 18 cement companies accounting for nearly 90 per cent of India’s domestic cement capacity and noted margins had improved sharply to around Rs 1,000 per t in fiscal 2026.

Crisil noted that the reduction would be driven mainly by higher power and fuel costs, which account for about 30 per cent of total costs, as petcoke and imported coal prices have surged amid geopolitical uncertainties. Freight costs, which account for about a quarter of total costs, are also expected to remain elevated because of higher diesel prices. The impact on profitability is likely to be more pronounced in the first half of the fiscal year before easing commodity prices moderate cost pressures later.

The rating agency said steady domestic demand and strong balance sheets should keep credit profiles stable despite the moderation in margins. Green energy currently accounts for 35-40 per cent of the sector’s total electricity consumption and is expected to partly cushion higher energy costs. Operating cash flows are likely to remain resilient, supported by projected 6-7 per cent growth in cement demand this fiscal.

Crisil highlighted that demand growth will be driven primarily by infrastructure spending, which meets about one-third of sector consumption, and by a nearly 18 per cent higher budgetary allocation for core ministries that should support project execution. Weaker rural housing demand amid pressure on agricultural incomes from a possible below-average monsoon may be offset by improved urban housing demand supported by favourable home-loan rates and a strong pipeline of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban projects. Ongoing capacity additions will keep capital expenditure elevated and may lift net debt to EBITDA to between 1.2 and 1.4 times from around 1.0 time last fiscal, though ratios are expected to remain healthy.

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UltraTech Board Approves Rs 50 bn Fundraise Via NCDs

Company to issue half a million debentures for expansion plan

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UltraTech Cement’s board of directors has approved raising Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 bn) through non?convertible debentures issued in rupees.

The finance committee cleared a proposal to issue up to 500,000 fully paid, unsecured, listed, rated, redeemable, rupee?denominated, non?convertible, non?cumulative debentures of Rs 1 lakh each (Rs 0.1 mn each), aggregating to the Rs 5,000 crore programme.

As of June 2026 the firm reported net debt of Rs 15,875 crore (Rs 158.75 bn) and said its capacity expansion projects under execution are backed by capital expenditure of about Rs 17,000 crore (Rs 170 bn) over the next two to two?and?a?half years.

UltraTech spent Rs 9,500 crore (Rs 95 bn) on capital expenditure in financial year 2026 and in April the group crossed 200.1 mn tonnes per annum of domestic grey cement capacity and 205.5 mn tonnes per annum of global capacity.

The chief financial officer indicated the company would take consolidated capacity beyond 242 mn tonnes per annum, with grey cement capacity reaching 212.7 mn tonnes per annum by the end of financial year 2027. He noted the net debt?to?earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ratio stood at 0.87 times as of June 2026 and the company was confident of ending financial year 2027 with the ratio below one time.

In the first quarter of financial year 2026?27 UltraTech’s net profit attributable to owners rose 16.8 per cent year?on?year to Rs 2,599.3 crore (Rs 25.993 bn) and revenue from operations increased 15.9 per cent to Rs 24,648.20 crore (Rs 246.482 bn). The board approval is expected to complement internal cash flows as the company advances its expansion programme.

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Lokesh Lays Stone For Rs 31 Billion Cement Unit In Kadapa

Line-2 expansion to make Kadapa a major cement hub

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Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

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