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Cement industry to witness improved demand from July 2021

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According to CARE Ratings, the demand for cement will improve in a calibrated manner from July 2021 onwards. CARE Rating states that a double-digit cement volume growth seems unlikely at present for FY22, considering the uncertainty for the constantly evolving covid situation in the country. However, it also states that the profitability for cement players expects to remain healthy during FY22, considering the factors such as expected higher volumes and continuing pricing power enjoyed by cement companies which are likely to balance the cost pressures considerably. In terms of debt, most of the cement companies will be seen to continue their focus on strengthening their balance sheet during FY22. Moreover, report says that profits for FY22 will remain moderate due to increasing input costs for pet coke, diesel, coal, and packing materials, etc.

Today, the economic conditions of our country remain volatile. Considering this into account, the unlocking process that was earlier predicted for May 2021, has now been pushed to July 2021. This has affected the overall demand for cement for Q1FY22. The second wave came with a lot of uncertainties and shattered the overall demand during the last quarter of FY21. On the one hand, we see that the supply constraints are low because of the reopening of operations for the cement manufacturing companies; however, with a higher rate of infection in the rural areas, the demand for cement from rural got weaker.

CARE Ratings expects that for FY22, the domestic cement production may grow by around 4%-7% y-o-y after two consecutive years of de-growth against the initial estimate of 11%-14%. Demand for cement will directly depend on factors like the government?? push and spending towards infrastructure creation and development, pent-up urban demand, and continuing rural demand. However, the severity of ongoing pandemic will have direct impact on the timelines for demand revival for the cement industry.

Looking at Q1FY21, which was severely hit by the pandemic, the industry witnessed a swift recovery wherein domestic cement production reached 88% of pre-Covid levels (i.e., 88% of Q2FY20, states CARE Rating report. It further reports that during Q2FY21 and for Q3FY21, production was 96% of the corresponding period the previous year. Monthly domestic cement reached pre-Covid levels during March 2021 and was approximating to March 2019 levels. Overall, the domestic cement production has fallen by 12% during FY21 vis-?-vis FY20 as against the initial estimate of de-growth of 25%-30% made in April 2020.

For FY22, CARE Ratings estimates its entire portfolio of investment-grade cement companies will report stable performance with the aggregate rated debt of around Rs.23,964 crore. Most cement companies will be focusing on strengthening their balance sheets. However, it also states that the profitability for cement players is expected to remain moderate during FY22, due to increasing input costs especially for pet coke, diesel, coal, and packing materials, etc. Furthermore, CARE Rating also states that the liquidity for a majority of the CARE-rated investment grade portfolio is likely to remain strong or adequate in FY 2022.

Some of the key drivers identified by CARE Rating are-

Positives

  • Increased capital outlay towards infrastructure creation by 26% to Rs.5.54 lakh crore

  • Enhanced outlay of Rs.1,18,101 crore for MoRTH of which Rs. 1,08,230 crore is for capital.

  • Central Counterpart Funding to various metros aggregating to Rs.88,059 crore

  • Proposals to further incentivize and boost affordable housing.

  • Pent up urban demand and continuing rural demand.

Negative

  • Slow pick up of demand with ongoing Covid II

  • Increase in input costs

  • Excess capacities

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Concrete

Lokesh Lays Stone For Rs 31 Billion Cement Unit In Kadapa

Line-2 expansion to make Kadapa a major cement hub

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Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

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Concrete

Cement Prices to Stay Flat in Q2 FY27 as Costs Squeeze Margins

HDFC Securities warns monsoon slowdown and higher fuel costs

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HDFC Securities has said the cement industry is unlikely to register a sequential increase in prices in Q2 FY27 as monsoon-related demand moderation coincides with rising fuel and packaging costs that will squeeze margins. The brokerage observed that price gains remained modest, with increases of two to three per cent quarter-on-quarter across regions, and noted subdued offtake in May with improvement in June as a delayed monsoon supported construction activity. The brokerage added that modest pricing gains so far have been insufficient to offset the input cost escalation.

The report stated that input cost pressures intensified in Q1 FY27 owing to the West Asia conflict, which pushed up coal and pet coke prices and is expected to keep fuel costs elevated, with a likely peak in Q2 FY27. It assessed that total variable costs, including packing, could rise by around Rs 150 per t quarter-on-quarter and that lower offtake and seasonal operating deleverage could further raise operating expenditure by about Rs 50 per t quarter-on-quarter.

Overall, cement prices were estimated to remain flat in Q2 FY27 as monsoon-led demand weakness offsets limited upside in realisation, and rising fuel costs alongside seasonal deleverage were expected to compress industry margins by over Rs 100 per t quarter-on-quarter to below Rs 880 per t. The brokerage indicated that the combined impact of energy inflation and higher packing expenditure would be the principal drivers of margin contraction in the near term. HDFC Securities projected a recovery in margins in H2 FY27 should the West Asia turmoil subside and energy and packing costs cool off.

The brokerage expressed optimism on long-term demand fundamentals and said improving realisation together with an anticipated cost cool-off should support a margin rebound from H2 FY27 onward, underpinning favourable industry prospects over the medium term. Its outlook rests on monsoon normalisation and a decline in imported fuel prices in the second half of the fiscal year.

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Concrete

Dalmia Bharat Begins Rs 31 Bn Green Cement Unit in Kadapa

New Andhra Pradesh plant to add 9.6 MTPA cement capacity by FY28

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Dalmia Bharat Limited recently laid the foundation stone for its second manufacturing unit at Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh. The company will invest Rs 31 billion in developing the next-generation integrated cement manufacturing facility.
The foundation-laying ceremony was attended by Nara Lokesh, Andhra Pradesh Minister for Information Technology, Electronics and Communications, Real-Time Governance and Human Resources Development, along with Puneet Dalmia, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Dalmia Bharat, senior government officials and company representatives.
Scheduled to be commissioned by the third quarter of FY28, the Kadapa unit will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated manufacturing facility in southern India. It will have a clinker production capacity of 6.1 million tonnes per annum and a cement manufacturing capacity of 9.6 million tonnes per annum.
The facility is designed to produce what the company describes as one of the world’s greenest cements. It is also expected to generate approximately 1,000 direct and indirect employment opportunities while supporting local MSMEs, transporters, contractors and service providers.
Lokesh said the investment reflected Dalmia Bharat’s confidence in Andhra Pradesh and aligned with the state’s objective of promoting sustainable industrialisation, job creation and technology-led economic growth.
Puneet Dalmia said the project represented the company’s long-term vision of developing low-carbon cement manufacturing assets. He added that the facility would establish new benchmarks in operational efficiency and sustainability while supporting India’s infrastructure and environmental goals.
Dalmia Bharat will also expand its regional community development programmes in education, healthcare, skill development and welfare through its DIKSHa and Gram Parivartan initiatives.
The company currently has an installed cement manufacturing capacity of 54.7 million tonnes across 19 manufacturing units in 12 states. It is also the first cement company globally to commit to the RE100, EP100 and EV100 initiatives.

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