During April-July 2020, the core sector output has contracted by 20.5 per cent as against the 3.2 per cent growth during the same months of FY20, which can be ascribed to the coronavirus pandemic induced nation-wide lockdown that brought production activities to a near standstill.
For fifth successive month, the output of eight core sectors contracted in July 2020 by 9.6 per cent when compared with the 2.6 per cent growth witnessed in the same month of the previous year. However, on a sequential basis, the output of eight core sector increased for fourth month a row and improved when compared with 12.9 per cent decline in June 2020. The partial increase in the output in the month of July 2020 can in part be ascribed to further relaxations in the lockdown restrictions permitted under Unlock 2.0. However, localised lockdowns imposed by states in certain parts have weighed on the output during the month. In the month of July 2020, barring fertilizers, all other industries have recorded a de-growth (yoy per cent).
The final index for April 2020 has been revised lower as a result of which the growth has been revised lower at -37.9 per cent as against -37 per cent (provisional). For June 2020, output growth has been revised higher to -12.9 per cent v/s -15 per cent (provisional).
During April-July 2020, the core sector output has contracted by 20.5 per cent as against the 3.2 per cent growth during the same months of FY20, which can be ascribed to the coronavirus pandemic induced nation-wide lockdown that brought production activities to a near standstill. All sectors barring fertilizers registered de-growth in industrial output during the first four month of FY21.
Key highlights:
Coal production declined by 5.7 per cent in July 2020 at a faster pace than the 1.6 per cent contraction in July 2019. However, when compared with June 2020 coal production has improved considerably (-15.5 per cent in June 2020). The partial resumption of industrial activities has led to increase in coal production. However, high inventory pile up and low pick up of coal stocks by electricity generation companies and monsoon season has weighed on coal production during the month.’
Production of crude oil contracted for the 4th successive month in July 2020 by 4.9 per cent on account of delay in production activities due to lockdown restrictions, non- availability of electric submersible pump (ESPs), delay in installation of new platforms, rise in water cut in wells & decline in total liquid production of wells, loss of oil production due to bandh/blockade by local people after the blow out at Baghjan and nearby areas.
Natural gas production declined for 16 months successively in July 2020 by 10.2 per cent as against 0.5 per cent de-growth in the same of last year. Delay in production activities due to lockdown, lower production from Vasistha/S1 wells due to surface issues and restricted/ no gas off take by consumers in onshore due to Covid-19 situation and shutdown at consumers’ end weighed on production. Refinery production, having higher weightage in eight core, contracted at a double digit pace of 13.9 per cent higher than -0.9 per cent in July 2019 owing to lower demand in domestic and global markets due to impact of Covid-19 lockdown and ongoing monsoons.
Output of steel sector decreased at a double digit rate for fifth month in a row by 16.4 per cent compared with the 8.1 per cent growth in July 2019. It can be ascribed to subdued construction activities owing to monsoon and lockdown restrictions, low demand from auto sector with high inventories and muted demand.
Cement production witnessed a dip by 13.5 per cent, a successive de-growth for fifth month, due to subdued construction activities and high inventories in the real estate sector. The increased demand seen from the rural sector too moderated as the coronavirus infections penetrated in the rural India as well.
Output of fertilizers grew by 6.9 per cent in July 2020, higher than 1.5 per cent growth in July 2019 and 4.2 per cent in June 2020 as it was less affected by the shutdown and production continued as demand from agriculture was high. This demand along with replacement of stocks in advance for the rabi sowing later in October-November has partly contributed to this increase in production.
Electricity production fell by 2.3 per cent as against the 5.2 per cent growth witnessed in July 2019. On a sequential basis, however, it was higher than the 10 per cent contraction seen in the previous month. This reflects resumption of industrial and business activity leading to pick up in commercial demand which again gets reflected in similar patterns witnessed in coal.
CARE Ratings’ View
In August 2020, further relaxation was permitted which is expected to push up the production by various key sectors during the month. The output thus may improve further in the eight core sector. Given the relationship between core sector growth and IIP growth (i.e., 40 per cent weightage of core sectors in IIP), the latter may be expected to be in the region of -12 to 14 per cent.
Courtesy: CARE Ratings
The article is authored by: Dr. Rucha Ranadive, Economist Email: rucha.ranadive@careratings.com | 91-22-68374348
Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology
India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.
According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.
Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.
The Regulatory Push Is Real
The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.
Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.
Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem
Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.
The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.
Engineering a Made-in-India Answer
At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.
Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.
Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.
The Investment Case Is Now
The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.
The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.
The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.
The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.
About The Author
Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.
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