Since its invention, demand for cement has been largely driven by housing and infrastructure. For countries like ours, which depend mostly on brick and mortar for building homes, home-building has traditionally been a major driver of cement consumption. It is a different matter, that gradually, the demand from housing has moved from small individual houses to organised housing complexes and mass housing projects. However, in spite of all the changes in the market and the focus on infrastructure, even today housing continues to be 65 per cent of the Indian cement market. So, it must go without saying, that if housing grows rapidly, cement demand grows in a commensurate manner, which is sweet tiding for the industry indeed.
To get a sense of the impact of housing on cement consumption, every house (built in the affordable housing category) consumes roughly about 70 bags of cement, which amounts to 3.5 tonne. If we consider 22 million houses as considered in the project, it amounts to an incremental cement demand of 77 million tonne (MT). This also tallies with the empirical formula that every square feet of construction requires 25 kg or half a bag of cement. At 70 bags, such small houses translates to just about 140 square feet (sq ft). The actual sizes of the so-called affordable houses can be larger, and therefore, this incremental demand has an upside possibility. Now, we all know that 77 MT is a rather significant chunk of potential demand that will make the industry’s mouth literally water. What is the status of affordable housing project on the ground? According to a report published in a premier Business Daily, affordable housing segment rose 27 per cent in terms of new units launched in top eight cities of the country. More than 26,000 new units have been launched in 2017 so far, data from Cushman & Wakefield revealed. Of the total new launches in affordable units, 40 per cent were in Mumbai, followed closely by Kolkata and Pune.
All in all, there is no doubt whatsoever that the government’s current focus on spends on housing/infrastructure segment augurs well for the cement sector.
Recapitalisation of PSU banks, and gradual stabilisation of RERA regime will also have a positive down stream effect on the construction sector. The numbers thrown up by various departments indicate a healthy incremental cement demand of over 100 MT (cumulative) over the next five years, which translates to a demand CAGR of over 8 per cent, which we have not seen in recent times! Housing alone is slated to consume upwards of 75 MT of cement with the government’s target to build 22 million houses in 3-5 years. Road projects can add another 25-30 MT of consumption. Thus, just housing and road construction can add 100 MT of cement demand over the next five years, which is adequate for an exciting 10 per cent growth in capacity utilisation of the industry. Construction of other infrastructure such as airports, ports, and railway network will only add further to this tally. If all this fructify, we can expect the industry utilisation to touch nearly 85 per cent over the next 3-5 years.
The irony is, besides cement, we need sand also for house building. In fact, 120 cubic feet of sand is required for construction of 100 sq ft of home. Given that sand availability has become a serious issue in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Telangana due to the ban on illegal mining in some of these regions, sand could become a serious spoilsport in this otherwise rosy story.
Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology
India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.
According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.
Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.
The Regulatory Push Is Real
The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.
Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.
Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem
Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.
The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.
Engineering a Made-in-India Answer
At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.
Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.
Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.
The Investment Case Is Now
The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.
The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.
The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.
The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.
About The Author
Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.
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