Economy & Market
2015 Forging Ahead
Published
12 years agoon
By
admin
The expected higher government spending on infrastructure and a robust growth in housing sector will trigger the demand for cement in 2015, a year that is also expected to be another year of consolidation in the industry.
The Indian cement industry is the second largest market after China accounting for about eight per cent of the total global production. It had a total capacity of over 360 million tonne (mt) as of the financial year 2013-14. The industry grew at a rate in the previous decade, registering a compounded growth of about eight per cent. The housing sector is the biggest demand driver of cement, accounting for about 67 per cent of the total consumption, followed by infrastructure – 13 per cent; commercial construction – 11 per cent; and industrial construction – nine per cent. To meet the rise in demand, cement companies are expected to add 56 mt capacity over the next three years. The cement capacity in India may register a growth of eight per cent by end of next year to 395 mt from the current level of 366 mt. It may increase further to 421 mt by the end of 2017. The country?s per capita consumption stands at around 190 kg.
The market scenario
The cement production remained subdued during FY14 growing by a modest three per cent during April-March 2014 as against 7.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The cement demand remained weak primarily due to weak demand from end-user industries. Delays in environmental clearances for industrial and infrastructure projects and unavailability of sand in some states contributed to slow growth. In fact, as against year-to-date growth of three per cent, cement production registered an even lower growth of two per cent during Q3 FY14 and 1.2 per cent in Q4 FY14 which are seasonally strong quarters for the cement industry, as per a recent ICRA report.
Companies are taking steps to optimise their overhead costs, improve efficiency and lower consumption norms. They have increasingly started using pet coke and lignite instead of expensive coal as a source of fuel and utilising waste heat gases to produce power. Steps are also being taken to optimise power consumption norms and reduce the power consumed per tonne of cement. Further, companies are focusing on using higher proportion of additives such as fly ash and cement to bring down their cost of production. As a result, the power and fuel cost as well as raw material cost has seen some easing.
Growth and demand outlook
Highlighting the industry scenario, Arvind Pathak, Chief Executive Officer, Reliance Cement Company, had this to say. ?With cement capacity touching ~390 million tonne and likely demand of 275 million tonne in 2015, there is expected to be a surplus capacity of ~115 million tonne during the year. Industry is projected to operate at a rate of 70-72 per cent of capacity utilisation in 2015.?
On the expected CAGR growth, Pathak says, ?With expected pick up in GDP growth rate and considering a multiplier of 1.2, cement demand is expected to grow at the rate of 7-8 per cent during FY15-16.? On the demand front he observes, ?Demand is mostly expected to come from government-backed projects in 2015. Concretisation of roads, dedicated freight corridors, development of smart cities, metro rail projects, construction of toilets under ?Swacch Bharat Abhiyan? are the major thrust areas the government is going to focus on which will drive cement consumption from 2015 onwards. Further, with new rules on funding for infrastructure projects under 5:25 rule, and revival of many stalled projects, the overall demand is expected to be high.? He adds, ?With easing of rules for FDI in real estate sector and the likely reduction of interest rates, commercial and real estate sector are also likely to drive cement consumption.? According to him, the likely demand mix in 2015 is expected to be housing (60 per cent), infrastructure ( 22 per cent) and commercial (18 per cent).
Vinod Juneja, Managing Director, Binani Group of Industries, ups the growth curve further. According to him, with various projects and expansion plans both by the state and central governments, the cement industry will grow by 10-11 per cent in the coming financial year. The demand will also grow high in the coming years. It is estimated that infrastructure will drive demand in the coming years from airports, highways and railway activities. Juneja adds, ?The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has sought to end all its pending issues and litigation regarding land acquisition, cost over-run etc; NHAI and Airports Authority of India (AAI) have got big expansion plans both in metro and non-metro sectors, hence cement market will grow minimum 10-11 per cent.? He further adds, ?The decrease in the housing loan interest rate and the increase in the tenure of the loans repayment will further boost the cement sector leading the cement industry to a sunshine industry.?
VP Sharma, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, ABG Cement, confidently avers, ?I am bullish about cement demand going high. The important sectors which will drive the cement demand are infrastructure and housing. The various initiatives taken by the present government, particularly in the areas of concrete roads, railways, ports, smart cities, and low-cost housing will drive the demand. Towards the end of 2015, demand for cement should be close to 8-9 per cent, which will become double-digit by the end of 2015.? Sharma adds, ?The year 2015 will see excess supply of cement to the tune of 50 to 60 million tonne. But consistent increase in demand will help us to absorb excess supplies going forward.?
Sharma cements the arguments, ?From the time the present government came to power, they have emphasised on building the infrastructure, i.e., concrete roads, railways, ports and low-cost housing. This will certainly increase cement demand. Recently, the Minister for Road Transport and Highways and Shipping, Nitin Gadkari quoted that all central road projects will be done by concrete. This would result in increase in cement demand.?
Zeroing on the demand scenario, Ashutosh Rampal, Vice President, Marketing, KJS Cement, Maihar, says, ?The cement demand in FY15-16 will be driven by government spending on public infrastructure, in spite of the newly elected government?s pressing need to curb fiscal deficit. This has been clearly stated policy line. Private enterprise has a low share in nation building and the much touted Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) has not gathered mass, thanks to the economic downturn and policy paralysis of the UPA government. Public infrastructure spending by the government is expected to lead the growth in cement consumption in FY15-16, till the PPP model becomes robust and the private companies start taking interest in the infra projects. Retail housing off take was sluggish last year due to high interest rates and fragile economic stability. This is expected to change for better in FY15-16 due to relaxation of land utilisation norms and easing interest rates. The ambitious NCR-Kandla industrial freight corridor is awaiting rejuvenation by Japanese funding who in turn are treading cautiously due to ambivalence of Indian Babudom. To conclude, the industry will do well subject to the government taking effective steps to rev up the system.?
Highlighting the ground reality, Rampal adds, ?The NDA government has promised government expenditure on building public infrastructure as a means to boost the income generation in the economy. In addition to this, the easing of land acquisition norms for key infrastructure projects and government focus on manufacturing and infra industry is expected to boost the demand scenario. Since no significant new capacity is coming up, the year is expected to be good for cement industry.PPP projects are stuck because of cost escalation and poor availability of long- term low-cost funds. Renegotiation of stalled PPP infra projects, especially those of NHAI and take off of Indo-Japanese NCR-Delhi-Kandla freight corridor require urgent attention to boost the cement and steel consumption across the country.? The demand outlook for FY15 remains relatively more favourable given the new government?s focus on revival of infrastructure and investment spending. The growth in FY15 will also be supported by a low base as cement production grew by merely three per cent in FY14. During April-May 2014, cement production has grown by 7.7 per cent YoY as against 3.9 per cent in the corresponding period last year. Pick-up of real estate and industrial activity, infrastructure projects and overall investment cycle will remain critical for the sector over the near-term.
As per ICRA report, the initiatives announced to promote infrastructure and housing investment in Union Budget are likely to have a positive impact on cement demand. Increased provision under Rural Housing Fund and interest deduction on housing loans will boost urban and rural housing demand and in turn, demand for cement. Further, government measures to promote investment in ports, roads, airports and other infrastructure projects are also likely to support cement demand. Cement companies are also likely to benefit from the increase in long term funding availability for infrastructure projects which is likely to facilitate more investment in these sectors.
2015: A year of further consolidation
According to Sharma, 2015 will be another year of more consolidation in the cement industry. He says, ?The bigger players will look for consolidation as we have seen in 2014 to have better price control. The prices may stabilise towards end of 2015. Our company will work towards increasing the capacity utilisation rather than any capacity addition in the present circumstances. However, based on market scenario, we may look towards end of 2015 for any capacity addition.?
Pathak also is on the same page. According to him, consolidation in cement industry will continue with non-serious and marginal players exiting the market and entry of large multinational cement players. He adds, ?Our current plan of capacity expansion of 10 million tonne is on track (5 million tonne in Maihar, Madhya Pradesh and another 5 million tonne in Yavatmal, Maharashtra). This will take our total installed capacity to 15.5 million tonne. However, immediately in 2015, there is not going to be any new capacity addition.? Pathak further adds, ?With increased focus of the government on infrastructure and real estate development, demand is expected to be better in 2015. This, coupled with slowdown in capacity additions, will enable industry to pass on cost increases and boost profitability.
Says Rampal, ?I clearly see consolidation of industry. The quality players will take over the smaller inefficient and high-cost players with weak cash flows. Ultratech Cement, Shree Cement and Bharat Dalmia Cement will straddle the space of mergers and acquisitions. Allocation of coal blocks and increased capacity utilisation of government undertakings will help reduce the manufacturing costs. FY15-16 will see a fillip in demand and the market prices. This in turn will create enterprise value and bolster balance sheets for cement companies.? He adds, ?We are planning to increase capacity to 5 mtpa shortly by adding another 2.10 mtpa clinkerisation unit at Maihar with forward grinding units in Bihar, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh. By this time, our own railway siding would be functional, thereby helping us in evacuation of cement.?
Pricing pressures
During the past two years the industry witnessed high operating costs, including all major cost heads such as raw materials, energy and freight. The steep depreciation of the rupee and hike in rail freight and diesel prices further aggravated the concerns. Cement manufacturers still continue to be under the pressure of rising input costs. According to ICRA report cement manufacturers witnessed significant increase in freight costs over the past two years, due to increase in freight rates by railways, consistent increase in diesel prices and increased dependence on costlier road transport due to shortage of railway wagons. Apart from this, the prices of key raw materials limestone and gypsum have also increased. Further, increase in domestic coal prices by CIL in May 2013, declining availability of low cost linkage coal have increased power and fuel costs. However, declining international coal and pet coke price have provided some benefits to Indian cement companies; but the extent of this benefit has partly been offset by rupee depreciation.
According to Rampal, cement prices directly depend upon three parameters: the capacity expansion that disturbs the equilibrium of demand-supply in a region; the quality of players; and the difference in variable cost of production of players. He says, ?Firm prices and the capacity utilisation of 85-90 per cent in FY15-16 is expected to stay for next 2-3 years.?
Pathak explains, ?With demand picking up and rate of new capacity additions slowing down, industry would be able to pass on the cost increase to consumers and cement prices are likely to grow in the range of 5-7 per cent in 2015.?
In many regions prices have gone over Rs. 300 per bag. Says Juneja, ?Cement prices have already reached above Rs 300 per bag which includes excise, octroi, sales tax, primary and secondary transportation and handling charges.? Sharma observes, ?There will be pressure on the prices as in the past. However, focus will be to keep the current price stable and increase volumes.?
From the dealers point of view, Rahul Gandhi, Director, Mahaveer Building Material, had this to say. ?Currently, the basic issue is the price, which has gone up drastically in the last couple of months. At the same time, there is no change in sales margins. The government has to introduce some policy initiative by setting a minimum earning margin for the dealer and the margin should be according to the price, if the price is increased, the margin should be revised accordingly. This will help the dealer stay in the business in difficult times. GST will be a good initiative as the anomalies in tax structure will go and it will be uniform.? Ravi Lunawat, Partner, Lunawat Agency, supports the view. According to him, from the government, GST is a major initiative everybody is waiting for. He says, ?Last year when LBT started, it reduced the business of dealers in cities because that time the market was closed for almost two months and the builders bought cement from other markets. Once the GST starts, the price will be uniform everywhere, which will be good for us.?
SR Agarwal, Proprietor, Kirtee Enterprises is also on the same page. ?The Central government?s initiative to introduce GST is a good move for dealers,? he says. He further explains, ?Before LBT, the rate of cement in the rural area was different from city areas, which makes a difference of Rs 10-20 per bag. And now after the authorities upgraded octroi to LBT, the transport system is very fast and the material handling is also very easy. And the material is distributed at the same rate in the rural and urban areas. GST will definitely make the difference as it will benefit the complete value chain of the company, trader, transporter and the end-user. The overall procedure will be transparent.?
According to ICRA report, cement prices in North India had seen a significant hike of Rs 50 per bag during Q4 FY14, driven by temporary supply side disruptions following closure of two cement plants of Binani Cement with a total capacity of 6 mtpa in Rajasthan. The average wholesale cement price in Delhi increased from Rs 275 per bag (50 kg) in January 2014 to Rs 323 per bag in March 2014. Similarly, the average wholesale cement price in Chandigarh increased by Rs 58 per bag between January-March 2014 to Rs 334 per bag. The prices in certain parts of Western India, particularly Gujarat, were also impacted by the aforementioned shutdown. Wholesale prices in Ahmedabad market increased by Rs 47 per bag to Rs 300 per bag between January-March 2014. However, cement prices in these regions came under pressure in April-May 2014, following resumption of cement supply from Binani. Wholesale prices declined by Rs 15-30 per bag in Delhi, Ahmedabad and Chandigarh between April-June 2014. Prices in Mumbai market continued to remain under pressure and declined by Rs 20 per bag during January-May 2014 due to transfer of cement from Southern markets. However, with rise in prices in South in June 2014, the wholesale prices in Mumbai also increased by Rs 5-10 per bag in June 2014. Cement prices in Eastern markets increased by Rs 20-25 per bag during January-June 2014 as cement companies raised prices in the busy season to recover the rising costs.
South India remained the only major region which saw consistent decline in prices by about Rs 10-30 per bag during January-May 2014 due to overcapacity, disruption of production discipline and low demand during April-May 2014. However, cement companies raised prices significantly by about Rs 70 per bag in June 2014 to pass on the rising costs. However, the real estate companies and builders association have protested against such a steep price hike. During April-June 2014, the average price in Delhi was higher by 10 per cent, 22 per cent higher in Ahmedabad, 7 per cent higher in Chandigarh as compared to prices in the corresponding period of the previous year. Prices in Mumbai are flat while those in South and certain parts of East India are lower on YoY basis.
Great expectations
Rampal spells out the expectation from the government. He says, ?NDA government is already sending out message that it wants to kickstart manufacturing to facilitate the growth of labour income. Simplifying land acquisition, labour reforms and simplifying federal taxation through implementation of GST across the nation are the steps industry has already welcomed. Specifically, for the cement industry, the government spending will directly increase the cement demand, followed by take-off of retail housing and PPP infra projects. Government must analyse and find cure as to why infra companies are exiting from the BOT to EPC models. Is the policy environment or the trust missing for the private capital to consider incubating in these projects?? He adds, ?The Railways can facilitate the industry through preferential allocation of cement rakes (at the factory head) and raw material rakes (at the ports).?
According to Pathak, for increasing demand curve post initiation of different initiatives, government should now focus on implementation of its dream projects like 100 smart cities, bullet train and metro rail projects, house for every citizen by 2022, concretisation of national highways, etc, which will drive cement consumption. He further points out, ?To attract investments in railway infrastructure, government need to review the ?Own your Wagon Scheme? and make it more attractive for the industry players. Enough focus should be given to develop inland waterways, which would reduce the burden on existing rail and road network and also bring down the logistics cost.? As far as availability of power is concerned, Pathak adds, ?The government needs to focus on resolving the issues being faced by power sector by bring in clarity on coal auctioning, land acquisition bill, etc. A lot of power projects that are stuck/stalled due to various issues should be revived.?
Tax issues
Speaking on the issues related to different tax and lack of uniform tax structure, Pathak says, ?Cement is one of the highest taxed commodities in India. The total taxes and levies include royalties and import duties on input materials, electricity duties, sales tax, and excise duties account for one-third of the overall price of cement. Taxation rates in India are almost double of China. Government needs to focus on resolving raw materials and logistics issues to help cement sector getting clarity on policies. Clear roadmap for improvement in infrastructure sector is needed to help generating cement consumption in the country. Implementation of GST should start with more clarity on tax structure. The government should also reduce some of the taxes by providing it a status of core infrastructure sector.?
Explains Rampal, ?Out of the market price of a bag of cement 35-40 per cent is taken away by VAT, excise and railway freight (cost of manufacturing and limestone being extra) putting a massive burden on the industry. In spite of being a priority sector for nation building, cement taxation in the country is at par with the prohibitive industries worldwide.? Rampal suggests, ?Reduction in excise duty by 3-4 per cent will be able to sustain the industry longer. Government should study the possibility of subsidising rail freight for food, cement and steel which will directly boost the movement and clear up all logistics bottlenecks in addition to keeping the inflation of essential commodities low.?
Juneja avers, ?Until and unless GST is implemented, there cannot be effective interstate movement due to cascading effect of multiple taxes. We are awaiting the Budget on 28 February 2015.? Sharma mirrors the observation. According to him India is one of the countries where there is higher tax structure in cement sector. Government has to rationalise excise duty, royalty and sales tax to help the sector to grow.
Raw material availability
According to Rampal, raw material availability of coal and gypsum is not a constraint. However he adds, ?The limestone availability is fast becoming a constraint as applications for mining lease for limestone are stuck either at the state level or at the central ministry level due to environmental or social impact assessment issues.
Government must speed these up through e-governance initiatives.? Says Sharma, ?I don?t see much action from the present government in this area; however, cement industry has to improve its raw material inventories, particularly limestone. Moreover, government has to speed up with coal block allotments.?
Sharma further adds, ?With increase in demand, pressure will be on logistics. We are yet to see action from the new government in this area.? As far as the availability of power is concerned, he says, ?Most of the cement plants are self-sufficient in power with captive power plants. We will require continuing import of coal due to the current uncertainties in the domestic coal supply. Cement industry is importing coal also due to favourable coal prices.
However, the industry has to focus more on alternative sources of power from waste heat etc to reduce energy cost.?
Moving forward
Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. With the Government of India providing a boost to the infrastructure and various housing projects coming up in urban as well as rural areas, the cement sector has enough scope for development in the future. The weakness in the international crude oil prices and other commodities should help bring costs under control and improve profitability of the sector. If inflation comes under control, a likely lowering of interest rates would be a big positive for the cement sector. Despite the current challenges that dent the growth of the industry, the long term drivers for growth remain intact. Higher government spending on infrastructure, robust growth in rural housing and rising per capita incomes are likely to augur well for the cement sector.
Agith G Antony
2015 is expected to be another year of market consolidation. Cement companies expected to add 56 mt capacity over the next three years. The installed capacity may increase to 421 mt by the end of 2017. Demand is expected to grow at a rate of 7-8 per cent during FY15-16. The year 2015 will see excess supply of cement to the tune of 50-60 mt.
Government needs to review the ?Own your Wagon Scheme?.
Develop inland waterways, which would reduce the burden on existing rail and road network.
GST implementation should start with more clarity on tax structure. Government has to speed up with coal block allotments.
Concrete
UltraTech Cement expands green logistics with 600+ electric truck fleet
Published
1 day agoon
September 3, 2026By
admin
The e-truck fleet will be used to transport five million MT of clinker and other key materials with potential of over 1,17,000 tonnes of net annual CO₂ reduction, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.
Mumbai
UltraTech Cement Limited, an Aditya Birla Group company and the world’s largest cement company by sales volume and capacity outside China, has announced that it will scale up its electric vehicle fleet in its logistics operations to 600+ EV trucks by December 2026.
UltraTech has signed service contracts with leading EV prime mover manufacturers including Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, IPLTech, Energy in Motion and Sany, along with their subsidiaries and other third-party logistics providers, to deploy EV trucks.
The total fleet of 600+ EV trucks will transport about five million MT of clinker and other key materials per annum across Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha. Once fully operational, this fleet of over 600 EV trucks will enable a net annual CO₂ reduction of more than 1,17,000 tonnes, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.
K C Jhanwar, Managing Director, UltraTech Cement Limited, said, “UltraTech is expanding sustainability beyond its plants by adopting greener logistics solutions. This large-scale transition to green logistics underscores our focus on decarbonising every link of our value chain and supports our commitment to achieving Net Zero.”
UltraTech has been a pioneer in advancing sustainable transport in the cement sector, being the first cement company to deploy heavy-duty electric trucks for long-haul transport of clinker and other materials at scale. The company was among the first in India to introduce green logistics, deploying CNG trucks in 2021 and electric trucks in 2024. UltraTech currently operates 850+ trucks as part of its green logistics operations, including CNG and electric trucks.
UltraTech, with a grey cement capacity of over 200 MTPA in India, operates one of the country’s most complex logistics networks. Its electrification strategy covers the entire supply chain—from mine-to-plant movement to inter-plant transport of clinker and other key materials.
The $ 10 billion UltraTech, the cement flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, has a total Grey Cement capacity of 205.5 MTPA and White Cement/Putty capacity of 3.2 MTPA. It is a signatory to the GCCA Climate Ambition 2050 and has committed to the Net Zero Concrete roadmap announced by GCCA.
In a research-backed article, Dr SB Hegde examines why carbon-adjusted profitability and LC3 will decide the next set of winners in cement manufacturing.
The Indian cement industry has achieved world-class operational efficiency through lower specific energy consumption, high plant utilisation and a reduced average clinker factor of approximately 67.5 per cent. These traditional measures of operational excellence remain essential. However, they are no longer sufficient. Carbon now carries a measurable financial cost under India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and under European carbon markets. Future leadership will be defined by carbon-adjusted profitability, the ability to generate strong returns while systematically lowering the carbon intensity of every ton sold.
Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) offers a practical, scalable pathway to achieve this dual objective. By replacing up to 50 per cent of clinker with calcined clay and limestone, LC3 can reduce CO2 emissions by 30–40 per cent while delivering comparable or superior durability performance.
This article examines the technical foundations of LC3, European industrial practices, the emerging Indian carbon market and a concrete roadmap for Indian companies to embed carbon-adjusted metrics and LC3 into daily operations, incentives and commercial strategy.
Limits of traditional operational excellence
For many years, plant performance has been judged primarily by five indicators: specific heat consumption, specific power consumption, kiln and mill utilisation, clinker factor and overall equipment effectiveness. These metrics drove continuous improvement and helped the industry reduce energy use and increase the share of blended cement. Three structural changes have rendered them incomplete as sole measures of success.
First, carbon now carries a real or opportunity cost. Plants that improve volume or lower cash cost while raising or stagnating emissions intensity create a hidden liability that will surface as CCTS trading matures and as green procurement expands.
Second, lower-carbon products such as LC3 and high-performance blended cements are creating differentiated market segments. Customers in infrastructure, real estate and export-oriented construction are beginning to specify embodied-carbon limits.
Third, investors and lenders increasingly treat carbon intensity as a financial risk factor. Traditional KPIs can mask the divergence between short-term cash profit and long-term carbon-adjusted value.
What is carbon-adjusted profitability?
Carbon-adjusted profitability evaluates normal profit after explicit adjustment for carbon performance. A practical expression is:
Carbon-Adjusted EBITDA = Conventional EBITDA – Carbon Cost + Green Premium Income
Carbon cost may be an internal carbon price, the actual cost of purchasing Carbon Credit Certificates under CCTS, or the opportunity cost of high emissions relative to peers. Green premium income arises when customers pay more for verified lower-carbon cement or when the company sells surplus credits. Tracking both conventional and carbon-adjusted profit side-by-side gives management a clearer picture of value creation under evolving market rules.
Table 1. Traditional KPIs versus Carbon-Adjusted Leadership Metrics
Traditional Focus New Leadership Metric Why It Matters
Specific energy consumption Emissions intensity (kg CO2/t cement) Directly linked to future CCTS and CBAM costs
Kiln utilisation Carbon-adjusted contribution margin Reveals true value of incremental volume
Clinker factor Share of lower-carbon products sold (incl. LC3) Measures commercial success of the transition
Power cost per tonne Effective carbon cost per tonne sold Expose hidden liabilities
Absolute EBITDA Carbon-adjusted EBITDA + green premium Aligning profit with future market reality
LC3: Technical foundations and performance advantages
LC3 is a ternary blended cement that typically combines approximately 50 per cent clinker, 30 per cent calcined clay, 15 per cent limestone and 5 per cent gypsum (the classic LC3-50 formulation). The decisive technical advantage is that clay is calcined at 700–850 °C, far below the 1,450 °C required for clinker production. This lower temperature, together with the substantial reduction in clinker content, delivers CO2 reductions of 30–40 per cent relative to ordinary Portland cement (OPC).
Chemistry is synergistic. Calcined kaolinitic clay (metakaolin) reacts with calcium hydroxide from clinker hydration and with limestone to form additional C-A-S-H gel and carboaluminate phases. These phases densify the microstructure, reduce porosity and improve durability.
Field experience shows superior resistance to chloride ingress, sulphate attack and alkali–silica reaction. Early-age strength can match OPC with high-reactivity clays; later-age strengths routinely meet 42.5 and 52.5 grade requirements.
Importantly, LC3 does not require high-purity kaolin. Clays with 40 per cent or even lower kaolinite content can be activated successfully, expanding raw-material availability across India. Calcination can use adapted rotary kilns or dedicated flash calciners, making the technology compatible with existing plant infrastructure and far less capital-intensive than carbon capture.
Economic analyses show that LC3 can be produced at equal or lower cost than OPC in many locations because of reduced energy demand and cheaper clay. Life-cycle assessments consistently report 30–40 per cent lower embodied CO2 per tonne of cement.
Table 2. Comparative profile: OPC versus LC3-50
Parameter OPC LC3-50
Typical clinker content ~95 per cent ~50 per cent
CO2 emissions (relative) Baseline (≈0.85 t CO2/t cement process + fuel) 30–40 per cent lower
Clay calcination temperature Not applicable 700–850 °C
Key hydration products C-S-H, portlandite, ettringite C-A-S-H + carboaluminates
Chloride & sulphate resistance Good Superior
Production cost potential Baseline Equal or lower in most locations
Infrastructure compatibility Existing High (minor adaptations)
In India, commercial adoption has begun in earnest. JK Cement commenced the first commercial production of LC3 in the Indian subcontinent at its Mangrol plant in Rajasthan in 2025 under BIS standard IS 18189.
By early 2026, approximately 2,000 tonnes had been produced and sold, avoiding an estimated 500 tonnes of CO2. JK Lakshmi Cement followed with commercial launch of its Green PRO LC3 grade from the Jaykaypuram plant. As of mid-2026, two producers are supplying LC3 to the market. The first large-scale infrastructure application is the Noida International Airport (Jewar), where LC3 was used in the runway and a building complex, demonstrating full constructability and performance under demanding conditions. These early volumes are still small relative to national cement demand, but they mark the critical transition from pilot to commercial reality. Companies that scale capacity now will be positioned to capture both CCTS credits and emerging green-procurement demand.
Why the shift is accelerating
According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, direct carbon pricing now covers nearly 30 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions and generated more than US$107 billion in public revenue in 2025. The average global carbon price stands at approximately US$21 per tonne, although regional prices vary widely.
In Europe, the EU ETS price has traded near €80–85 per tonen in mid-2026. Free allocation for cement is being withdrawn in parallel with CBAM. European producers therefore face a clear signal: every tonne of avoided CO2 improves both compliance and competitiveness. Holcim has scaled calcined-clay production, including Europe’s first dedicated line at Saint-Pierre-la-Cour (France) and a second line in the Czech Republic (2026). Heidelberg Materials, Cementir (FUTURECEM) and others have commercialised low-clinker calcined-clay blends across multiple markets, showing that carbon-adjusted profitability is already reshaping capital allocation in the world’s most mature carbon market.India’s CCTS is now operational. Binding emission intensity targets apply to 186 cement facilities for FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27. Average required reductions for integrated plants are modest (around 2.7 per cent by FY 2027), yet the direction is clear.
Trading of Carbon Credit Certificates is expected in the second half of 2026, with early prices likely in the `800–1,500 per tonne range. Plants that outperform targets can sell credits; those that underperform must buy them or face compensation. Cement is well positioned to be a net supplier of credits if clinker factor continues to fall through LC3 and other low-clinker systems.
Way forward for India
India starts from a strong baseline, world-class energy efficiency and a clinker factor already lower than the global average. The next competitive frontier is the deliberate reduction of process emissions through clinker substitution at scale. LC3 is uniquely suited to Indian conditions because suitable clays are widely distributed, the technology fits existing kiln and grinding infrastructure, and the resulting product can meet the performance demands of both infrastructure and building construction.
A practical national pathway contains five interlocking elements:
- Standards and acceptance: Accelerated finalisation and promotion of BIS specifications for calcined-clay and limestone–calcined-clay cements will remove a key barrier to commercial uptake. Alignment with European practice (EN 197-5) can facilitate knowledge transfer and export readiness.
- Supply-chain development: Investment in flash calcination capacity and systematic characterisation of regional clay deposits will secure reliable, low-cost feedstock. Existing rotary kilns can be adapted for initial volumes while dedicated calciners are built.
- Incentive alignment: Part of variable compensation for plant managers, sales teams and senior leadership should be linked to emissions intensity reduction and to the volume of lower-carbon products (including LC3) sold. Without this link, traditional volume and cost targets will continue to dominate behaviour.
- Product-level carbon accounting: Reliable measurement of emissions intensity at the individual cement grade level, supported by third-party verification where required, is essential for both CCTS compliance and credible green claims.
- Demand-side pull: Green public procurement policies that specify maximum embodied-carbon thresholds for major infrastructure projects will create a predictable market for LC3 and other low-carbon cements, accelerating scale and cost reduction.
Companies that treat LC3 as a strategic product line rather than a niche offering will be better positioned to generate surplus Carbon Credit Certificates, capture any emerging green premium, and protect margins as carbon costs rise.
Organisational changes required
Technical capability alone is insufficient. Three organisational shifts are required.
Daily management: Emissions intensity must appear on the same daily and monthly dashboards as heat consumption, power consumption and utilization. Plant reviews should examine both conventional and carbon-adjusted results.
Incentives: A meaningful portion of bonuses for plant heads, technical teams and sales leadership should be tied to lower emissions intensity and successful commercialisation of LC3 and other low-carbon grades.
Commercial approach: Sales teams need clear volume and pricing targets for lower-carbon products, supported by technical service that helps customers specify and place the material correctly. Without commercial pull, excellent technical performance remains under-utilised.
Table 3. Three-stage roadmap to carbon-adjusted profitability
Time Horizon Priority Actions Expected Outcome
Next 12 months Add emissions intensity to plant dashboards; establish internal carbon price; initiate LC3 pilot production and customer trials Visibility and early organisational learning
12–24 months Revise incentive systems; scale LC3 and other low-carbon grades to key accounts; secure third-party verification capability People and sales aligned with carbon goals
24–36 months Embed carbon-adjusted metrics in board reporting and capital allocation; expand calcined-clay capacity Full system integration and competitive advantage
Questions senior leaders should ask
Boards can accelerate the transition by insisting on answers to a short list of questions:
• Is our carbon-adjusted profit improving, stable or declining relative to conventional EBITDA?
• Did recent volume growth improve or worsen our emissions intensity?
• What share of sales already comes from lower-carbon products, including LC3, and what is the trajectory?
• How exposed is our capital expenditure plan to rising carbon costs under CCTS and potential CBAM-related requirements?
• Do our incentive systems still reward only volume and cost, or have they been updated to include carbon performance?
Treating carbon with the same seriousness as energy cost or kiln utilization does not diminish operational excellence; it expands the definition of excellence to match the new competitive reality.
Looking ahead
By 2030 the gap between leading and lagging cement companies will not be decided by who records the lowest specific heat consumption. It will be decided by who delivers the strongest carbon-adjusted profits.
Absolute emissions may still rise as national production grows. That is not the issue. Companies that reduce intensity year after year and successfully sell cleaner products will pull ahead in both domestic and export markets. Those that do not will fall behind, even if their traditional efficiency numbers look strong.
Operational excellence built the Indian cement industry. It remains the foundation. It is no longer the complete picture. Carbon-adjusted profitability is the clearer measure of success.
LC3 is not a distant technology. It is available now. It cuts CO3 by 30–40 per cent, works with existing plants, and is already in commercial production in India. Companies that treat it as a strategic product, not a pilot, will protect their margins and generate tradable credits.
Leaders who act now will place carbon metrics on daily dashboards, link incentives to intensity reduction and LC3 sales, invest in calcined-clay capacity, and build commercial capability to sell lower-carbon products. They will shape the next chapter of the industry.
References
- World Bank. (2026). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
- International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP). (2026). India Carbon Credit Trading Scheme – Status and Coverage. Berlin: ICAP.
- Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change / Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025). Greenhouse Gases Emission Intensity Target Rules, 2025. New Delhi: Government of India.
- Scrivener, K., Martirena, F., Bishnoi, S., & Maity, S. (2018). Calcined clay limestone cements (LC3). Cement and Concrete Research, 114, 49–56.
- RMI. (2024). The Business Case for LC3. Rocky Mountain Institute.
- European Commission. (2026). EU Emissions Trading System – Allowance Price Data and Free Allocation Phase-out Schedule. Brussels.
- Holcim. (2025–2026). Scaling Calcined Clay for Sustainable Building – Corporate Updates on European and Latin American Capacity. Zurich: Holcim Ltd.
- LC3 Project / EPFL. (2026). LC3 – A Guide to Best Practices for Scalable, Affordable and Sustainable Low-Carbon Building. Lausanne: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
- Business Today / Industry Reports. (2026). First Large-Scale LC3 Application at Noida International Airport, Jewar. New Delhi.
- NITI Aayog / Industry Analyses. (2026). Roadmap and Baseline Performance Indicators for the Indian Cement Sector. New Delhi.
- Springer / Innovative Infrastructure Solutions. (2026). LC3 Systems: A Review of Chemistry, Performance, Durability and Sustainability toward Market Adoption.
- Cementir Holding / Industry Sources. (2025–2026). FUTURECEM and Related Low-Clinker Technologies in Europe.
- Climate Risk Horizons & Independent Analyses. (2026). Assessment of Emission Intensity Targets under India’s CCTS for Cement and Other Hard-to-Abate Sectors.
- GCCA / TERI. (Various years). Decarbonization Roadmaps for the Indian Cement Industry.
- EN 197-5:2021. Cement – Part 5: Portland-composite cement CEM II/C-M and Composite cement CEM VI. European Committee for Standardization.
Concrete
More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe
Published
7 days agoon
August 28, 2026By
admin
Dijam Panigrahi makes a counterintuitive but data-backed argument that routing every sensor alert through human approval does not make cement plants safer.
India’s cement industry has spent the last two years wiring kilns, mills and coolers with sensors and automated control systems, and the safety case for doing so is strong on paper. Contract workers still make up the majority of the industry’s workforce, and fatal accidents remain a recurring problem. The Indian National Cement Workers Federation has noted that around 83 per cent of workers in the sector hold precarious positions, a fact that resurfaced after an oxygen cylinder explosion killed three contract workers at a plant in Chhattisgarh.
Industry tallies compiled by IndustriALL found cement plants recorded at least seventeen accidents in one year with 21 workers killed, and ten accidents the following year with nine killed, most of them contract staff. Automated monitoring, in theory, closes that gap. A sensor never gets complacent and never skips a check because a shift is short staffed.
However, plants that respond by routing every anomaly reading to a person for approval are quietly building a system that fails the same way understaffing does. When operators receive dozens of flagged deviations a shift, most of them minor, they learn a simple lesson: the fastest way through the queue is to approve without reading closely. The safety benefit disappears, not because the technology failed, but because the humans supervising it adapted to the volume.
Why alerts get ignored
A study cited by manufacturing technology publisher Applied SmartFactory found more than 95 per cent of alarms in a semiconductor fab were low priority, and only about 4 per cent ever triggered an action, with just 100 out of 5,000 alarms accounting for 70 per cent of all alarm activity. The mechanism is the same whether the trigger is a vibration sensor or an AI model flagging a kiln temperature swing. Once the ratio of noise to signal crosses a threshold, workers stop treating the system as a decision aid and start treating it as a formality to clear.
The scale of AI deployment underway makes this more than a theoretical risk. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index Report found organisational adoption of AI has reached 88 per cent, even as documented AI incidents rose to 362 in 2025, up sharply from 233 the year before, according to analysis of the report. The Index also found only about a third of organisations have adopted a formal governance framework, with NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework cited by 33 per cent and ISO/IEC 42001 cited by 36 per cent.
Most manufacturers are deploying monitoring systems faster than they are building the judgment for when a flagged event actually needs a person’s attention. In India, plants run by JK Cement have begun pairing CCTV feeds with AI to define safe zones around heavy machinery, a promising direction that still depends on operators trusting and reading the alerts the system generates.
A three-tier model for cement plant
The fix is not less monitoring or more monitoring. It is classifying decisions by risk and by novelty, rather than treating human oversight as a single switch that is either on or off. A workable model sorts factory floor events into three tiers.
The first tier, proceed, covers deviations the plant has seen before that fall within known safe bounds, such as a kiln feed rate adjustment within an established range. These should run without a stop for approval, because routing them to a person only trains that person to click through.
The second tier, pause, covers events that are unusual but not yet dangerous, such as a vibration reading trending toward a limit or a fuel blend shifting outside its typical mix. These warrant a brief human check before the system proceeds, giving an operator the chance to apply judgment the model does not yet have.
The third tier, escalate, covers events that are both high risk and unfamiliar, such as a pressure reading combined with a temperature spike that has no close precedent in the plant’s history. These should stop the process entirely and require a decision from someone with the authority to shut down a line.
Who should set the threshold
Where these tiers get drawn matters as much as the framework itself. Threshold setting is frequently handed to the vendor supplying the monitoring software or to a plant’s IT department, both of which understand the technology but not the specific tolerances of a given kiln, mill or line. Operations staff, who know that a particular grinding unit runs hotter under monsoon humidity or that a calciner behaves differently after a refractory reline, are better positioned to calibrate what counts as routine on their own equipment.
Handing threshold ownership to operations does not remove IT or vendors from the process, but it puts the calibration decision closest to the people who live with its consequences on the floor.
Signals that oversight is actually working
A few concrete indicators reveal whether a monitoring setup is functioning as intended or simply providing the appearance of safety. The escalation rate over time is the first: a rate that stays flat or climbs slowly as operations mature is healthy, while one that spikes and then falls sharply often means operators have started overriding the system rather than engaging with it. Time to resolution is the second: escalations that take progressively longer to close suggest fatigue or confusion about ownership, not diligence. The third, and most telling, is how accurate the system’s own uncertainty estimates turn out to be, meaning whether events flagged as high risk actually correlated with real incidents, and whether events waved through stayed incident free. A system whose escalations do not track with actual outcomes trains operators toward the same complacency that unmonitored equipment produces.
None of this argues against automation in Indian cement manufacturing, where a labor structure built on contract work and a track record of serious accidents make better monitoring an urgent need. It argues for treating human oversight as a design problem with three distinct settings, rather than a single
dial turned up whenever a plant wants to look safer on paper.
About the author:
Dijam Panigrahi, Co-founder and COO, GridRaster, is a spatial computing platform for industrial enterprises and manufacturers.
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More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe
UltraTech to Deploy 600+ Electric Trucks by Dec 2026
UltraTech Cement expands green logistics with 600+ electric truck fleet
CarbonStrong Raises Rs 125 Million To Scale Low Carbon Cement Tech
Protect Your Margins

