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Cement industry to witness improved demand from July 2021

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CARE Rating states that a double-digit cement volume growth seems unlikely at present for FY22, considering the uncertainty for the constantly evolving Covid situation in the country. However, it also states that the profitability for cement players expects to remain healthy during FY22, considering the factors such as expected higher volumes and continuing pricing power enjoyed by cement companies which are likely to balance the cost pressures considerably. In terms of debt, most of the cement companies will be seen to continue their focus on strengthening their balance sheet during FY22. Moreover, report says that profits for FY22 will remain moderate due to increasing input costs for pet coke, diesel, coal, and packing materials, etc.

Today, the economic conditions of our country remain volatile. Considering this into account, the unlocking process that was earlier predicted for May 2021, has now been pushed to July 2021. This has affected the overall demand for cement for Q1FY22. The second wave came with a lot of uncertainties and shattered the overall demand during the last quarter of FY21. On the one hand, we see that the supply constraints are low because of the reopening of operations for the cement manufacturing companies; however, with a higher rate of infection in the rural areas, the demand for cement from rural got weaker.

CARE Ratings expects that for FY22, the domestic cement production may grow by around 4 to 7 per cent y-o-y after two consecutive years of de-growth against the initial estimate of 11-14 per cent. Demand for cement will directly depend on factors like the government?? push and spending towards infrastructure creation and development, pent-up urban demand, and continuing rural demand. However, the severity of ongoing pandemic will have direct impact on the timelines for demand revival for the cement industry.

Looking at Q1FY21, which was severely hit by the pandemic, the industry witnessed a swift recovery wherein domestic cement production reached 88 per cent of pre-Covid levels (i.e., 88 per cent of Q2FY20, states CARE Rating report. It further reports that during Q2FY21 and for Q3FY21, production was 96 per cent of the corresponding period the previous year. Monthly domestic cement reached pre-Covid levels during March 2021 and was approximating to March 2019 levels. Overall, the domestic cement production has fallen by 12 per cent during FY21 vis-?-vis FY20 as against the initial estimate of de-growth of 25-30 per cent made in April 2020.

For FY22, CARE Ratings estimates its entire portfolio of investment-grade cement companies will report stable performance with the aggregate rated debt of around Rs 23,964 crore. Most cement companies will be focusing on strengthening their balance sheets. However, it also states that the profitability for cement players is expected to remain moderate during FY22, due to increasing input costs especially for pet coke, diesel, coal, and packing materials, etc. Furthermore, CARE Rating also states that the liquidity for a majority of the CARE-rated investment grade portfolio is likely to remain strong or adequate in FY 2022.

Some of the key drivers identified by CARE Rating are:

Positives:

  • Increased capital outlay towards infrastructure creation by 26 per cent to Rs 5.54 lakh crore

  • Enhanced outlay of Rs 1,18,101 crore for MoRTH of which Rs 1,08,230 crore is for capital.

  • Central counterpart funding to various metros aggregating to Rs 88,059 crore

  • Proposals to further incentivise and boost affordable housing.

  • Pent up urban demand and continuing rural demand.

Negatives:

  • Slow pick up of demand with ongoing Covid II

  • Increase in input costs

  • Excess capacities

Way ahead

For FY22, CARE Ratings estimates its entire portfolio of investment grade cement companies with aggregate rated debt of around Rs 23,964 crore to report stable performance. Although the profitability for cement players is expected to moderate during FY22 owing to increasing input costs especially for pet coke, diesel, coal and packing materials, etc, the impact of the same on cash accruals is envisaged to be less, backed by higher volumes and stable prices. In terms of debt, most of the cement companies are envisaged to continue their focus on strengthening their balance sheet during FY22. Furthermore, liquidity for majority of the CARE-rated investment grade portfolio is likely to remain strong or adequate for FY22 supported by high cash balances, un-utilised or minimally utilised working capital funding lines and healthy cash flows.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

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Concrete

Cement Demand Revives As Prices Decline In Q3 FY26

Nuvama reports improved volume growth after price correction

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A report by Nuvama Financial Services (Nuvama) said cement sector demand revived in the third quarter of fiscal year twenty twenty six as prices declined, supporting volume growth across regions. The note indicated that sequential price correction helped replenish demand that had been subdued by elevated pricing earlier in the year. Nuvama quantified the price decline as a sequential correction that varied across states and segments, facilitating restocking by merchants and traders.

The report suggested that improved affordability after the price correction encouraged housing and infrastructure activity, with developers and contractors adjusting procurement plans. It added that regional dynamics varied, with some markets showing faster recovery while others remained reliant on seasonal construction cycles. Housing demand was driven by both affordable and mid segment projects, while infrastructure segment recovery was contingent on timely execution of public works.

Analysts at Nuvama assessed that the price moderation eased inventory pressures for manufacturers and distributors and supported margin stabilisation at several producers. Demand improvement was visible in both urban and rural segments, although the pace of recovery differed by state and trade channel. Producers were seen balancing price realisations with volume targets and managing input cost volatility through operational efficiencies.

The report recommended that investors monitor volumes and realisations closely as market equilibrium emerges in the coming quarters, noting that sustainability of recovery would depend on monsoon patterns and government infrastructure outlays. Overall, the assessment pointed to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the cement industry as price correction translated into tangible volume gains. Market participants were advised to track early signs of demand broadening beyond core construction hubs to assess the depth of the rebound.

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Concrete

Refractory demands in our kiln have changed

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Radha Singh, Senior Manager (P&Q), Shree Digvijay Cement, points out why performance, predictability and life-cycle value now matter more than routine replacement in cement kilns.

As Indian cement plants push for higher throughput, increased alternative fuel usage and tighter shutdown cycles, refractory performance in kilns and pyro-processing systems is under growing pressure. In this interview, Radha Singh, Senior Manager (P&Q), Shree Digvijay Cement, shares how refractory demands have evolved on the ground and how smarter digital monitoring is improving kiln stability, uptime and clinker quality.

How have refractory demands changed in your kiln and pyro-processing line over the last five years?
Over the last five years, refractory demands in our kiln and pyro line have changed. Earlier, the focus was mostly on standard grades and routine shutdown-based replacement. But now, because of higher production loads, more alternative fuels and raw materials (AFR) usage and greater temperature variation, the expectation from refractory has increased.
In our own case, the current kiln refractory has already completed around 1.5 years, which itself shows how much more we now rely on materials that can handle thermal shock, alkali attack and coating fluctuations. We have moved towards more stable, high-performance linings so that we don’t have to enter the kiln frequently for repairs.
Overall, the shift has been from just ‘installation and run’ to selecting refractories that give longer life, better coating behaviour and more predictable performance under tougher operating conditions.

What are the biggest refractory challenges in the preheater, calciner and cooler zones?
• Preheater: Coating instability, chloride/sulphur cycles and brick erosion.
• Calciner: AFR firing, thermal shock and alkali infiltration.
• Cooler: Severe abrasion, red-river formation and mechanical stress on linings.
Overall, the biggest challenge is maintaining lining stability under highly variable operating conditions.

How do you evaluate and select refractory partners for long-term performance?
In real plant conditions, we don’t select a refractory partner just by looking at price. First, we see their past performance in similar kilns and whether their material has actually survived our operating conditions. We also check how strong their technical support is during shutdowns, because installation quality matters as much as the material itself.
Another key point is how quickly they respond during breakdowns or hot spots. A good partner should be available on short notice. We also look at their failure analysis capability, whether they can explain why a lining failed and suggest improvements.
On top of this, we review the life they delivered in the last few campaigns, their supply reliability and their willingness to offer plant-specific custom solutions instead of generic grades. Only a partner who supports us throughout the life cycle, which includes selection, installation, monitoring and post-failure analysis, fits our long-term requirement.

Can you share a recent example where better refractory selection improved uptime or clinker quality?
Recently, we upgraded to a high-abrasion basic brick at the kiln outlet. Earlier we had frequent chipping and coating loss. With the new lining, thermal stability improved and the coating became much more stable. As a result, our shutdown interval increased and clinker quality remained more consistent. It had a direct impact on our uptime.

How is increased AFR use affecting refractory behaviour?
Increased AFR use is definitely putting more stress on the refractory. The biggest issue we see daily is the rise in chlorine, alkalis and volatiles, which directly attack the lining, especially in the calciner and kiln inlet. AFR firing is also not as stable as conventional fuel, so we face frequent temperature fluctuations, which cause more thermal shock and small cracks in the lining.
Another real problem is coating instability. Some days the coating builds too fast, other days it suddenly drops, and both conditions impact refractory life. We also notice more dust circulation and buildup inside the calciner whenever the AFR mix changes, which again increases erosion.
Because of these practical issues, we have started relying more on alkali-resistant, low-porosity and better thermal shock–resistant materials to handle the additional stress coming from AFR.

What role does digital monitoring or thermal profiling play in your refractory strategy?
Digital tools like kiln shell scanners, IR imaging and thermal profiling help us detect weakening areas much earlier. This reduces unplanned shutdowns, helps identify hotspots accurately and allows us to replace only the critical sections. Overall, our maintenance has shifted from reactive to predictive, improving lining life significantly.

How do you balance cost, durability and installation speed during refractory shutdowns?
We focus on three points:
• Material quality that suits our thermal profile and chemistry.
• Installation speed, in fast turnarounds, we prefer monolithic.
• Life-cycle cost—the cheapest material is not the most economical. We look at durability, future downtime and total cost of ownership.
This balance ensures reliable performance without unnecessary expenditure.

What refractory or pyro-processing innovations could transform Indian cement operations?
Some promising developments include:
• High-performance, low-porosity and nano-bonded refractories
• Precast modular linings to drastically reduce shutdown time
• AI-driven kiln thermal analytics
• Advanced coating management solutions
• More AFR-compatible refractory mixes

These innovations can significantly improve kiln stability, efficiency and maintenance planning across the industry.

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Concrete

Digital supply chain visibility is critical

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MSR Kali Prasad, Chief Digital and Information Officer, Shree Cement, discusses how data, discipline and scale are turning Industry 4.0 into everyday business reality.

Over the past five years, digitalisation in Indian cement manufacturing has moved decisively beyond experimentation. Today, it is a strategic lever for cost control, operational resilience and sustainability. In this interview, MSR Kali Prasad, Chief Digital and Information Officer, Shree Cement, explains how integrated digital foundations, advanced analytics and real-time visibility are helping deliver measurable business outcomes.

How has digitalisation moved from pilot projects to core strategy in Indian cement manufacturing over the past five years?
Digitalisation in Indian cement has evolved from isolated pilot initiatives into a core business strategy because outcomes are now measurable, repeatable and scalable. The key shift has been the move away from standalone solutions toward an integrated digital foundation built on standardised processes, governed data and enterprise platforms that can be deployed consistently across plants and functions.
At Shree Cement, this transition has been very pragmatic. The early phase focused on visibility through dashboards, reporting, and digitisation of critical workflows. Over time, this has progressed into enterprise-level analytics and decision support across manufacturing and the supply chain,
with clear outcomes in cost optimisation, margin protection and revenue improvement through enhanced customer experience.
Equally important, digital is no longer the responsibility of a single function. It is embedded into day-to-day operations across planning, production, maintenance, despatch and customer servicing, supported by enterprise systems, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) data platforms, and a structured approach to change management.

Which digital interventions are delivering the highest ROI across mining, production and logistics today?
In a capital- and cost-intensive sector like cement, the highest returns come from digital interventions that directly reduce unit costs or unlock latent capacity without significant capex.
Supply chain and planning (advanced analytics): Tools for demand forecasting, S&OP, network optimisation and scheduling deliver strong returns by lowering logistics costs, improving service levels, and aligning production with demand in a fragmented and regionally diverse market.
Mining (fleet and productivity analytics): Data-led mine planning, fleet analytics, despatch discipline, and idle-time reduction improve fuel efficiency and equipment utilisation, generating meaningful savings in a cost-heavy operation.
Manufacturing (APC and process analytics): Advanced Process Control, mill optimisation, and variability reduction improve thermal and electrical efficiency, stabilise quality and reduce rework and unplanned stoppages.
Customer experience and revenue enablement (digital platforms): Dealer and retailer apps, order visibility and digitally enabled technical services improve ease of doing business and responsiveness. We are also empowering channel partners with transparent, real-time information on schemes, including eligibility, utilisation status and actionable recommendations, which improves channel satisfaction and market execution while supporting revenue growth.
Overall, while Artificial Intelligence (AI) and IIoT are powerful enablers, it is advanced analytics anchored in strong processes that typically delivers the fastest and most reliable ROI.

How is real-time data helping plants shift from reactive maintenance to predictive and prescriptive operations?
Real-time and near real-time data is driving a more proactive and disciplined maintenance culture, beginning with visibility and progressively moving toward prediction and prescription.
At Shree Cement, we have implemented a robust SAP Plant Maintenance framework to standardise maintenance workflows. This is complemented by IIoT-driven condition monitoring, ensuring consistent capture of equipment health indicators such as vibration, temperature, load, operating patterns and alarms.
Real-time visibility enables early detection of abnormal conditions, allowing teams to intervene before failures occur. As data quality improves and failure histories become structured, predictive models can anticipate likely failure modes and recommend timely interventions, improving MTBF and reducing downtime. Over time, these insights will evolve into prescriptive actions, including spares readiness, maintenance scheduling, and operating parameter adjustments, enabling reliability optimisation with minimal disruption.
A critical success factor is adoption. Predictive insights deliver value only when they are embedded into daily workflows, roles and accountability structures. Without this, they remain insights without action.

In a cost-sensitive market like India, how do cement companies balance digital investment with price competitiveness?
In India’s intensely competitive cement market, digital investments must be tightly linked to tangible business outcomes, particularly cost reduction, service improvement, and faster decision-making.
This balance is achieved by prioritising high-impact use cases such as planning efficiency, logistics optimisation, asset reliability, and process stability, all of which typically deliver quick payback. Equally important is building scalable and governed digital foundations that reduce the marginal cost of rolling out new use cases across plants.
Digitally enabled order management, live despatch visibility, and channel partner platforms also improve customer centricity while controlling cost-to-serve, allowing service levels to improve without proportionate increases in headcount or overheads.
In essence, the most effective digital investments do not add cost. They protect margins by reducing variability, improving planning accuracy, and strengthening execution discipline.

How is digitalisation enabling measurable reductions in energy consumption, emissions, and overall carbon footprint?
Digitalisation plays a pivotal role in improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions and lowering overall carbon intensity.
Real-time monitoring and analytics enable near real-time tracking of energy consumption and critical operating parameters, allowing inefficiencies to be identified quickly and corrective actions to be implemented. Centralised data consolidation across plants enables benchmarking, accelerates best-practice adoption, and drives consistent improvements in energy performance.
Improved asset reliability through predictive maintenance reduces unplanned downtime and process instability, directly lowering energy losses. Digital platforms also support more effective planning and control of renewable energy sources and waste heat recovery systems, reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
Most importantly, digitalisation enables sustainability progress to be tracked with greater accuracy and consistency, supporting long-term ESG commitments.

What role does digital supply chain visibility play in managing demand volatility and regional market dynamics in India?
Digital supply chain visibility is critical in India, where demand is highly regional, seasonality is pronounced, and logistics constraints can shift rapidly.
At Shree Cement, planning operates across multiple horizons. Annual planning focuses on capacity, network footprint and medium-term demand. Monthly S&OP aligns demand, production and logistics, while daily scheduling drives execution-level decisions on despatch, sourcing and prioritisation.
As digital maturity increases, this structure is being augmented by central command-and-control capabilities that manage exceptions such as plant constraints, demand spikes, route disruptions and order prioritisation. Planning is also shifting from aggregated averages to granular, cost-to-serve and exception-based decision-making, improving responsiveness, lowering logistics costs and strengthening service reliability.

How prepared is the current workforce for Industry 4.0, and what reskilling strategies are proving most effective?
Workforce preparedness for Industry 4.0 is improving, though the primary challenge lies in scaling capabilities consistently across diverse roles.
The most effective approach is to define capability requirements by role and tailor enablement accordingly. Senior leadership focuses on digital literacy for governance, investment prioritisation, and value tracking. Middle management is enabled to use analytics for execution discipline and adoption. Frontline sales and service teams benefit from
mobile-first tools and KPI-driven workflows, while shop-floor and plant teams focus on data-driven operations, APC usage, maintenance discipline, safety and quality routines.
Personalised, role-based learning paths, supported by on-ground champions and a clear articulation of practical benefits, drive adoption far more effectively than generic training programmes.

Which emerging digital technologies will fundamentally reshape cement manufacturing in the next decade?
AI and GenAI are expected to have the most significant impact, particularly when combined with connected operations and disciplined processes.
Key technologies likely to reshape the sector include GenAI and agentic AI for faster root-cause analysis, knowledge access, and standardisation of best practices; industrial foundation models that learn patterns across large sensor datasets; digital twins that allow simulation of process changes before implementation; and increasingly autonomous control systems that integrate sensors, AI, and APC to maintain stability with minimal manual intervention.
Over time, this will enable more centralised monitoring and management of plant operations, supported by strong processes, training and capability-building.

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