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Base effect hides monthly decline

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Steel and cement sector witnessed a growth of 59.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent (YoY) respectively, which reflects the capex push provided by the Central and State governments. The decline in case of cement and steel production is mainly due to impact of the record surge in Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and the associated lockdowns on construction activity.

The Eight core sector should be read with caution again as the favourable base effect is again at play for the third consecutive month. In May 2021, core sector output rose by 16.8 per cent as against a contraction of 21.4 per cent in May 2020. On a month on month level comparison, there has been a marginal decline of 3.7 per cent which reflects the impact of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns on business activities. One should note that May has been characterised by lockdowns of varied nature in both FY21 and FY22. The localised lockdowns during May??1 did have a bearing on output of the 8-core sector to some extent while the double-digit growth can be chiefly ascribed to the low growth number in May??020. There has been an upward revision in the core sector growth data for April??1 to 60.9 per cent (previous estimate: 56 per cent).

The double-digit Y-O-Y growth has been primarily driven strong growth registered in steel, natural gas and refinery products. Month-on-month improvement has been registered in case of fertilisers (ahead of kharif season), natural gas and coal production. The monthly index for May??1 is still 6.1 per cent lower than the pre-pandemic index of February??0 and 8.2 per cent lower than May??019 (the year prior to the pandemic). So far in FY22, the core sector output has witnessed a growth of 35.8 per cent compared with a de-growth of 29.4 per cent in the corresponding month last year but this purely a baseeffect phenomenon. There could be support from government capex as the fiscal numbers for this period show higher outlay on roads.

Key highlights

Coal production was higher by 6.9 per cent in May 2021 as against -14.1 per cent in May 2021. Despite the 2nd wave of the COVID19 pandemic disrupting business activities during the month, there has been a month-on-month improvement of 3.1 per cent in coal production on the back of revival in demand from the power sector.

Crude oil production fell by 6.3 per cent in May 2021, registering the 42nd consecutive monthly decline. The decline in production can be ascribed to adverse climatic conditions created by cyclone Tauktae, which hit the Indian west coast coupled with less than planned contribution from workover wells, drilling wells and old wells. The overall production has also been lower owing to lower consumer demand, infectivity issues in few wells, workovers and water knockouts.

Natural gas production rose by 20.1 per cent in May??021 compared with contraction of 16.7 per cent in May??020 mainly due to higher output from the PSC fields. However, production in government fields were low due to reduced gas production in Western Offshore due to cyclone Taukate, delay in commencement of gas production and less offtake by consumers due to Covid-19 issues. Natural gas production by Pvt/JVs companies in the PSC (production sharing contracts) regime has almost tripled on a YoY basis. This is due to increased contributions from D-34 field of KG DWN 98/3 and wells from satellite cluster.

Refinery production rose by 15.3 per cent in May??1 as against a de-growth of 21.3 per cent in May??020. There has however been a month-on-month decline of 4.6 per cent reflective of lower consumer demand amidst the localised lockdowns during the 2nd wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Products that witnessed a rise in production were high speed diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuel and petcoke, while fuel oil and kerosene saw a fall in output during this month.

Fertiliser production declined to a 14-month low of 9.6 per cent in May 2021 compared with a high base of 7.5 per cent in May 2020. The m-o-m growth of 16.1 per cent can be ascribed fertilizer manufacturing companies increasing their production in May over April in anticipation of good demand ahead of the kharif sowing season. Along with this, the Centre increased the subsidy on fertilizers in mid-May after fertilizer producers announced their plans of increasing prices due to a surge in international feedstock prices. This hike in subsidies assuaged manufacturers??worries around a fall in demand from farmers. This is likely to have supported production too.

Steel and cement registered a growth of 59.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent (YoY) respectively which does reflect the capex push provided by the governments at both Centre and State level along with a low base effect. The m-o-m decline in case of cement and steel production highlights the impact of the record surge in Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and the associated lockdowns on construction activity. Labour shortages due to reverse migration also had a bearing on construction activities during May??021.

Electricity generation rose by 7.3 per cent in May 2021 as against a low base of 14.8 per cent in May 2020. However, there has been a month-on-month decline of 7.1 per cent as states imposed lockdowns to rein in the devastating effect of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The higher usage of electricity in residential locations during the summer season limited the monthly moderation to some extent.

CARE Ratings??View

There has been a dip in the core sector index for May??021 compared with the previous month which reflects the impact of the localised lockdowns on business activity. However, as economic activities, especially in the industrial segment were not significantly affected in June 2021, output of the core sector will witness an improvement. There has been a strong push for capex from the Government which will drive steel and cement while the advent of the kharif season will drive fertilizer production. The impact of the base-effect will continue in the next few months but will fade away subsequently. The IIP for the month of May??021 could range between 20-30 per cent though one should not read much into it.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

The article is authored by Sushant Hede, Associate Economist. He can be contacted on: Email: sushant.hede@careratings.com | Tel: 91-22-6837 4348

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Limited. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis / inferences / views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

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Concrete

NDMC Rolls Out Intensive Sanitation Drive Across Lutyens Delhi

Municipal body intensifies cleaning and monitoring across the capital

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The New Delhi Municipal Council has launched an intensive sanitation drive across Lutyens’ Delhi, aiming to raise cleanliness standards in the capital’s central precincts. The programme will combine enhanced manual sweeping with mechanised cleaning and systematic waste removal to cover parks, heritage precincts and prominent thoroughfares. Authorities described the initiative as a sustained effort to improve public hygiene and reduce environmental hazards while maintaining the area’s civic image.

Operational teams have been instructed to prioritise drain clearing and litter hotspots, with special attention to markets and transit nodes that attract heavy footfall. Coordination with city utilities and waste processing units will be stepped up to ensure timely collection and disposal, and supervisory rounds will monitor adherence to cleaning schedules. Officials also intend to use data-driven planning to deploy resources efficiently and to identify recurring problem areas.

The council plans to engage resident welfare associations and business stakeholders to foster community participation in maintaining cleanliness and to support behavioural change campaigns. Public communication will be amplified through notices and outreach to encourage responsible waste handling and to inform residents about collection timings and segregation norms. Enforcement measures for littering and unauthorised dumping will be reinforced as part of a broader strategy to deter violations and sustain cleanliness gains.

The move reflects a focus on urban sanitation that officials link to public health priorities and to the city administration’s commitment to maintaining civic amenities. Monitoring mechanisms will include regular reporting and inspections to review outcomes and to recalibrate operations where necessary, according to municipal sources. The council emphasised that continued community cooperation will be essential for the drive to deliver lasting improvements in the appearance and hygiene of the capital’s core areas.

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Concrete

UltraTech Appoints Jayant Dua As MD-Designate For 2027

Executive named to succeed current managing director in 2027

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UltraTech Cement has appointed Jayant Dua as managing director (MD) designate who will take charge in 2027, the company announced. The appointment signals a planned leadership transition at one of the country’s largest cement manufacturers. The board has set a clear timeline for the handover and has framed the move as part of a structured succession plan.

Jayant Dua will be referred to as MD after assuming the role and will be responsible for overseeing operations, strategy and growth initiatives across the company’s network. The company said the designation follows established governance norms and aims to ensure continuity in executive leadership. The appointment is expected to allow a phased transfer of responsibilities ahead of the formal changeover.

The decision is intended to provide strategic stability as UltraTech Cement navigates domestic infrastructure demand and evolving market dynamics. Management will continue to focus on operational efficiency, capacity utilisation and cost management while aligning investments with long term objectives. The board will monitor the transition and provide further information on leadership responsibilities closer to the effective date.

Investors and market observers will have time to assess the implications of the announcement before the change is effected, and analysts will review the company’s outlook in the context of the succession. The company indicated that it will communicate any additional executive appointments or organisational changes as they are finalised. Shareholders were advised to refer to formal filings and company releases for definitive details on governance or remuneration.

The leadership change will be managed with attention to stakeholder interests and operational continuity, and the company reiterated its commitment to delivery on ongoing projects and customer obligations. Senior management will engage with employees and partners to ensure a smooth handover while maintaining focus on safety and compliance. Further updates will be provided through official investor communications in due course.

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Concrete

Merlin Prime Spaces Acquires 13,185 Sq M Land Parcel In Pune

Rs 273 crore purchase broadens the developer’s Pune presence

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Merlin Prime Spaces (MPS) has acquired a 13,185 sq m land parcel in Pune for Rs 273 crore, marking a notable expansion of its footprint in the city.

The transaction value converts to Rs 2,730 mn or Rs 2.73 bn.

The parcel is located in a strategic area of Pune and the firm described the acquisition as aligned with its growth objectives.

The deal follows recent activity in the region and will be watched by investors and developers.

MPS said the acquisition will support its planned development pipeline and enable delivery of commercial and residential space to meet local demand.

The company expects the site to provide flexibility in product design and phased development to respond to market conditions.

The move reflects an emphasis on land ownership in key suburban markets.

The emphasis on land acquisition reflects a strategy to secure inventory ahead of demand cycles.

The purchase follows a period of sustained investor interest in Pune real estate, driven by expanding office ecosystems and residential demand from professionals.

MPS will integrate the new holding into its existing portfolio and plans to engage with local authorities and stakeholders to progress approvals and infrastructure readiness.

No financial partners were disclosed in the announcement.

The firm indicated that timelines will depend on approvals and prevailing market conditions.

Analysts note that strategic land acquisitions at scale can help developers manage costs and timelines while preserving optionality for future projects.

MPS will now hold an enlarged land bank in the region as it pursues growth, and the acquisition underlines continued corporate appetite for measured expansion in second tier cities.

The company intends to move forward with detailed planning in the coming months.

Stakeholders will assess how the site is positioned relative to existing infrastructure and connectivity.

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