India’s GDP growth rates are consistently falling every quarter through calendar 2018, and the forecast for the fourth quarter of FY19 is a further drop. Mint says that eight of the 16 high-frequency macroeconomic indicators are in the red and only four in green, (indicating that) the Indian economy continues to remain weak. The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2011-12 for the month of December 2018 stood at 133.7, which is a measly 2.4 per cent growth as compared to the level in the month of December 2017. This shows that manufacturing sector is still limping along. The Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy (CMIE), a much respected think tank, reported that 11 million jobs were lost in 2018 alone. India’s jobless rate shot up to 45-year high during 2017-2018, according to a report of National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO). NSSO, an autonomous government institution, which is much acclaimed globally for its statistical expertise, showed unemployment rate at 6.1 per cent, the highest since 1972-73. Accordingly, all agencies have watered down growth forecasts for the last quarter, as well as for the full year 2018-19, to varying degrees. Among highly divergent data and views being expressed on the realty sector (one of the largest consumers of cement), one thing emerges as a consensus: no silver linings visible yet in the sector, other than perhaps the introduction of our first ever Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). In fact, the first month of 2019 saw growth in the eight core sectors of the economy crash to a 19-month low at 1.8 per cent, slipping below even the dismal 2.8 per cent growth recorded in December 2018.
But it is not all gloom and doom, at least not for the cement industry. It continues to outshine its many of its core sector cousins, having trotted up a highly impressive 11 per cent growth year on year for the month of January 2019. And this showing comes back to back with a very good despatch growth numbers notched up in the previous month as well. Analysts and observers of the sector are projecting a very healthy 10 per cent growth for the cement industry in FY 19, as against 8.5 per cent last financial year (which also happened to be on an anaemic low base). The forecast for 2019-20 is now around 7 per cent on the higher base, and one can easily see that these pleasing numbers, caused mostly due to pre-election spends and infrastructure boost from the central as well as state governments, would result in higher capacity utilisation. Inspired by the immediate and the medium term prospects, many cement companies have increased prices significantly. Some say prices have increased by Rs 25 per bag on an average, and some other reports talk about Rs 77 per bag! This price rise has in turn triggered angry reactions from some stakeholders, such as CREDAI, and some governments, among them the Andhra Pradesh State Government, are already responding in one way or the other, given that this matter could become sensitive with elections round the corner.
For the investor community, the price rises together with lower costs of energy/fuel, can only mean better margins for the sector, and therefore, all round ?buy? suggestions are coming up.
Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology
India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.
According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.
Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.
The Regulatory Push Is Real
The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.
Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.
Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem
Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.
The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.
Engineering a Made-in-India Answer
At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.
Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.
Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.
The Investment Case Is Now
The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.
The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.
The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.
The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.
About The Author
Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.
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