Economy & Market

Cement Outlook 2012: Not as bleak as it looks

Published

16 years ago

January 9, 2011

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Every other news that pertains to the cement sector presents a gloomy picture and leading the posse are research analysts who are not very optimistic of cement stocks with the exception of a few leading companies that have consistently performed well even under duress. Indian Cement Review checks out whether it is time to call the doctor….The Indian cement industry had witnessed a dream run in the recent past. Consumption of cement in the country had grown at a CAGR of 9.9 per cent during the period FY 06-10. The cement demand growth had surpassed the economic growth rate during the same period. In FY10, cement demand grew at 11.1 per cent recording a multiplier of 1.4 times with the economic growth rate. However, in FY11, cement demand grew at merely 5.1 per cent on YoY basis. The multiplier of cement demand growth to the GDP growth declined below one. Construction activities remained subdued in the last fiscal owing to various reasons. Prolonged monsoon, heavy winter, delay in execution of infrastructural projects due to environmental hurdles and end of construction activities related to Commonwealth Games all together led to lower cement demand growth in FY11. Slowdown in the housing sector due to rising interest rates also impacted cement off take.The long-term cement demand in the country is expected to remain intactGoing forward, cement demand will largely be driven by the increased focus of the government on the infrastructure development and promotion of low-cost affordable housing in the country. The real estate sector continues to dominate as the largest cement-consuming sector in the country. Decent economic growth, rising income levels of a growing middle class, concept of nuclear families catching pace, tax incentives and modern attitudes towards home ownership (the average age of a new homeowner has declined to 32 years compared with 45 years a decade ago) will continue to boost the housing demand and real estate related to the retail segment. The measures announced in the recent budget also indicate continued support of the government to the affordable housing segment which will help the real estate sector to continue its growth momentum and in turn cement demand. CARE Research estimates that in the next four to five years, cement demand to the tune of about 250-260 mn tonne is expected to emanate from the construction of new dwellings in the urban region alone.Infrastructure sector will need more than 600 million tonne of cement during the Twelfth Five Year PlanCement demand is expected to pick up as government expenditure on infrastructure projects catches momentum. In the recent budget, GoI has taken various initiatives to attract foreign funds towards the infrastructural sector. Such measures will help in providing the much-needed financial support to the infrastructural projects and in turn enable faster execution which will boost the cement demand. GoI has envisaged an investment of more than Rs 4000 bn for infrastructure development under the Twelfth Five Year Plan. This will augur well for the cement industry, currently almost 25 per cent of the total cement consumption in the country is contributed by the infrastructure sector. Based on the cement component in the civil construction, CARE Research has estimated that the investments planned under various sub-sectors of the infrastructure sector during the Twelfth Five Year Plan will derive a cement demand of more than 600 million tonne. The share of the infrastructure sector in the total cement consumption is estimated to reach a level of 35 per cent by the end of FY17. Cement demand which is expected to emanate on the back of the planned investments under different infrastructure sub-segments in the Twelfth five year plan is shown in the following chart: Cement demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.3 per cent during the period FY 12-14. The following table gives the overall cement demand-supply situation over next three years:Capacity utilisation rate to remain in the range of 74-76 per cent during FY 12-14In past few years, the gap between cement demand and capacity has been widening due to substantial capacity addition. The cement industry witnessed a capacity addition of about 142.2 million tonne during the period of FY05-11. Out of this, about 67 million tonne of capacity was added in last two fiscals which is almost 23 per cent of industry’s total capacity as on March 31, 2011. As a result, the overall utilisation rate of the industry dropped from the peak of 93 per cent in FY07 to 75 per cent in FY11.Cement industry is expected to add capacity of about 86 million tonne in the period FY 12-14. The industry will continue to face a surplus situation. The operating rate of the industry will remain in the narrow range of 74 – 76 per cent during FY 12-14.Even though the Break-even Cushion is at comfortable level, prices to remain under pressureEven with the decline in the operating rate to a level below 80 per cent, the cement industry has been able to hold the prices on the back of high break-even cushion value.Break-even CushionBreak-even cushion is defined as the ratio of overall capacity utilisation rate of the industry to the utilisation rate at the break-even point in a particular year.Although the break-even cushion value has declined in the past three years, it is still at the comfortable level of two times. With this, cement industry is in better position to avoid substantial price cuts. However, CARE Research expects cement prices to remain under pressure in the current fiscal.(Revati Kasture, Head – Industry Research & Chaitanya Raut, Sr. Manager CARE Ratings)Operating rates will be challenged, profitability headed towards decadal lowCRISIL Research expects cement profitability to decline to its lowest level in the past 10 years by 2012-13. A huge demand-supply imbalance, fueled by supply glut, will drive cement profitability down. The supply glut will slacken cement manufacturers’ operating rates, restricting their ability to pass on a sharp rise in power and fuel costs to consumers.Over the next two years, while cement capacities rise by 60 million tonne per annum (mtpa), demand will increase by a mere 30 mtpa. Operating rates of cement manufacturers will therefore plunge to around 72 per cent in 2012-13 from an already subdued 78 per cent in 2010-11. Cost of power and fuel, a major input for cement, will increase by around 18 per cent in 2011-12, given a steep increase in coal prices by the industry’s dominant supplier, Coal India Ltd. In addition, an increase in effective excise duty rates will lower cement manufacturers’ net price realisations by 2-4 per cent."The magnitude of the demand-supply imbalance and cost escalation will halve the cement industry’s EBITDA margins from the current 20 per cent to around 10 per cent in 2012-13 – the lowest level in the past 10 years," Prasad Koparkar, Head – Industry and Customised Research, CRISIL Research said. Small-sized cement manufacturers – with capacities of less than 2 mtpa – are likely to post losses of about 2 per cent at the EBITDA level in 2012-13. Large cement manufacturers – capacities of 10 mtpa or higher, however, will fare better than the industry average, with EBITDA margins of about 12 per cent.The key reasons for the better performance of large cement manufacturers will be their greater use of captive power and their inherent economies of scale. These companies meet three-fourth of their power requirements through captive generation. Small cement companies, in contrast, meet a mere 5 per cent of their power requirements through the captive route, and source the remainder from the more expensive grid power. "Captive power can make a critical difference to cement profitability," Ajay D’souza, Head, CRISIL Research explained. "Every 10 percentage point increase in captive power consumption can improve cement companies’ EBIT DA margins by 50 basis points."An expert from the industry however dismisses the fears and says that the environment is being painted gloomier than it actually is. "If you look at some established companies they have been doing well despite the hardships and constraints. We expect the agriculture sector to grow and with the good monsoons we have had so far, we are looking at greater rural demand – NREGA spending is up. In a bid to counter global slowdown the government is already planning to boost up internal spending on infrastructure."Sumit Banerjee, CEO, Reliance Cementation, has this to say on the scenario: "Cement sector is cyclical and what we are seeing today is hopefully the bottom of the cycle. The current imbalance in the demand-supply situation is temporary and that too regional in nature. While a near equilibrium exists between demand and supply in some regions, there is excess capacity in South. With consumption growth expected to remain under pressure on account of delays in infrastructure and reality projects, rising capital cost, etc. the average all India capacity utilisation level in FY 12 is expected to touch less then 75 per cent, lowest in the past decade, and then gradually climbing back to 77 per cent in FY 13 and more than 78 per cent in FY14. However, on a longer term basis, with a GDP growth back on track, and thrust on development of physical infrastructure, we expect the growth in cement demand to be robust at around 10% in future. Moreover, with fewer limestone deposits now available to support new plants, coupled with constraints of acquiring land and getting statutory approvals, capacity additions through new green field projects will also slacken in the coming few years. Together, both these factors are likely to result in shortening the down cycle time for the industry and 90 per cent capacity utilization level could be reached earlier than expected."On the drop of prices in the month of July he says, "The drop in cement prices in July is on expected lines due to onset of monsoon as there is an overall slowdown in construction activities. Prices are expected to remain under pressure until Oct 11 and thereafter we may see some upward correction."According to him the eastern and central regions are expected to show higher growth as compared to the other regions.Don’t call the doctor yet….Bleak as it looks, the industry has the capability to withstand the onslaught of varied negative factors and still come out a winner. Despite many analysts predicting dark days ahead for cement companies, shares of some of the larger companies have managed to hold their own while other sectors have dipped. Post the announcement of RBI on credit tightening, domestic benchmark indices have lost 12 per cent in value. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex lost 2,194.54 points, to close at 16,676.75 on August 30. But cement stocks have not only stood steady some of them have appreciated. At the time of going to press, UltraTech Cement had gained 7.1 per cent since then and Ambuja Cements was up by 1.4 per cent and ACC gained 0.4 per cent. While it may be true that the June quarter results may have something to do with their performance experts agree that it is definitely better than expected.True cement companies are facing problems that stretch from over-capacity, low price realisation to falling demand for building material, rising input costs, lack of major infrastructure projects and, a charge of cartelisation, but the days ahead still hold some hope. Comes the good news from some companies that dispatches are on the rise. Jaiprakash Associates has announced that its cement shipments in August rose 21 percent from a year earlier to 1.32 million tonne. ACC has announced that its production & despatch figures for the month of August 2011 recorded an increase in sales at 1.88 million tonne compared to 1.57 million tonne in the corresponding period. Also the production increased from 1.56 million tonne to 1.88 million tonne.With the monsoon coming to an end, demand is surely going to pick up soon. The government may also quick track many infrastructure projects to balance the global downgrade and help the economy and this also bodes well for the cement sector.10 Per cent growth, a possibilityWorldwide cement consumption is forecast to reach a record 3,859 million tonne in 2012, 17 per cent up from 2010 levels. Global cement consumption growth had slowed to 2.4 per cent in 2008, the crisis ridden year, recovered to 5.9 per cent in 2009 with volumes touching 2,998 million tonne and further to 3,294 million tonne in 2010, giving annual growth rate of 9.9 per cent. China dominates world cement statistics consuming 1,851 million tonne in 2010, almost double of 2004 levels, while India, the world’s second-largest consumer registered 212 million tonne in 2010. The United States, the third-largest consumer, saw demand fall down to 69 million tonne.What happened in India? The Indian cement industry sustained its growth rate even in the tough conditions of economic slowdown. According to FIRST Infocentre, the Indian cement industry witnessed tremendous growth on the back of continuously rising demand from the housing sector, increased activity in infrastructure, and construction boom. Recent industry developments and the government supportive policies are attracting global cement giants and sparking off a spate of mergers and acquisitions to spur growth. Numerous domestic and international cement companies are striving hard to establish their production base in the country.Majority of the cement companies expanded their installed capacity against the backdrop of government backed infrastructure construction projects as these projects created strong demand for cement. With the growth in real estate activities and boom in the development of infrastructure, cement industry was on a roll in India.Before venturing into forecast for 2012, it would be necessary to dwell into the base year, 2011. After growing by less than 5 per cent in 2010, cement consumption is projected to grow by 11 per cent to 240 million tonne in 2011.Cement consumption has a very strong correlation with the economic growth as construction activities pick-up with the rise income levels. Construction GDP is projected to grow 10 per cent.FIRST Infocentre provides three scenarios for cement consumption forecast for 2012 based on the correlation of past drivers, challenges, and opportunities for expansion;

The worst-case scenario forecast pegs cement consumption growth at 8 per cent in 2012 if real GDP grows by 6.5 per cent and prices of fuel inputs rise faster than in 2011.
The most likely scenario is around 10 per cent increase in cement consumption, wherein, the GDP will grow by 8 per cent and fuel costs move up moderately in line with the general inflation rate.
The optimistic projection pegs consumption growth at 12.2 per cent, assuming GDP grows 9.5 per cent and fuel prices rise slower than the general inflation rate.

Thoroughly examining all emerging trends and drivers fueling growth in the cement industry, the regional cement demand-supply dynamics varies from state to state. The Twelfth Five Year Plan is expected to spend over US$1 trillion on infrastructure sector over the five year period beginning 2012-13. During the first year, more of spill over projects will be targeted for completion, along with the addition of new plan projects. This will boost demand for cement in states that attract more investment projects. For example, Orissa has been seeing number of projects increasing rapidly.Courtesy: FIRST Infocentre

Concrete

UltraTech Cement expands green logistics with 600+ electric truck fleet

Published

2 weeks ago

September 3, 2026

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The e-truck fleet will be used to transport five million MT of clinker and other key materials with potential of over 1,17,000 tonnes of net annual CO₂ reduction, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.

Mumbai

UltraTech Cement Limited, an Aditya Birla Group company and the world’s largest cement company by sales volume and capacity outside China, has announced that it will scale up its electric vehicle fleet in its logistics operations to 600+ EV trucks by December 2026.

UltraTech has signed service contracts with leading EV prime mover manufacturers including Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, IPLTech, Energy in Motion and Sany, along with their subsidiaries and other third-party logistics providers, to deploy EV trucks.

The total fleet of 600+ EV trucks will transport about five million MT of clinker and other key materials per annum across Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha. Once fully operational, this fleet of over 600 EV trucks will enable a net annual CO₂ reduction of more than 1,17,000 tonnes, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.

K C Jhanwar, Managing Director, UltraTech Cement Limited, said, “UltraTech is expanding sustainability beyond its plants by adopting greener logistics solutions. This large-scale transition to green logistics underscores our focus on decarbonising every link of our value chain and supports our commitment to achieving Net Zero.”

UltraTech has been a pioneer in advancing sustainable transport in the cement sector, being the first cement company to deploy heavy-duty electric trucks for long-haul transport of clinker and other materials at scale. The company was among the first in India to introduce green logistics, deploying CNG trucks in 2021 and electric trucks in 2024. UltraTech currently operates 850+ trucks as part of its green logistics operations, including CNG and electric trucks.

UltraTech, with a grey cement capacity of over 200 MTPA in India, operates one of the country’s most complex logistics networks. Its electrification strategy covers the entire supply chain—from mine-to-plant movement to inter-plant transport of clinker and other key materials.

The $ 10 billion UltraTech, the cement flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, has a total Grey Cement capacity of 205.5 MTPA and White Cement/Putty capacity of 3.2 MTPA. It is a signatory to the GCCA Climate Ambition 2050 and has committed to the Net Zero Concrete roadmap announced by GCCA.

Concrete

Protect Your Margins

Published

3 weeks ago

August 28, 2026

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In a research-backed article, Dr SB Hegde examines why carbon-adjusted profitability and LC3 will decide the next set of winners in cement manufacturing.

The Indian cement industry has achieved world-class operational efficiency through lower specific energy consumption, high plant utilisation and a reduced average clinker factor of approximately 67.5 per cent. These traditional measures of operational excellence remain essential. However, they are no longer sufficient. Carbon now carries a measurable financial cost under India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and under European carbon markets. Future leadership will be defined by carbon-adjusted profitability, the ability to generate strong returns while systematically lowering the carbon intensity of every ton sold.
Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) offers a practical, scalable pathway to achieve this dual objective. By replacing up to 50 per cent of clinker with calcined clay and limestone, LC3 can reduce CO2 emissions by 30–40 per cent while delivering comparable or superior durability performance.
This article examines the technical foundations of LC3, European industrial practices, the emerging Indian carbon market and a concrete roadmap for Indian companies to embed carbon-adjusted metrics and LC3 into daily operations, incentives and commercial strategy.

Limits of traditional operational excellence
For many years, plant performance has been judged primarily by five indicators: specific heat consumption, specific power consumption, kiln and mill utilisation, clinker factor and overall equipment effectiveness. These metrics drove continuous improvement and helped the industry reduce energy use and increase the share of blended cement. Three structural changes have rendered them incomplete as sole measures of success.
First, carbon now carries a real or opportunity cost. Plants that improve volume or lower cash cost while raising or stagnating emissions intensity create a hidden liability that will surface as CCTS trading matures and as green procurement expands.
Second, lower-carbon products such as LC3 and high-performance blended cements are creating differentiated market segments. Customers in infrastructure, real estate and export-oriented construction are beginning to specify embodied-carbon limits.
Third, investors and lenders increasingly treat carbon intensity as a financial risk factor. Traditional KPIs can mask the divergence between short-term cash profit and long-term carbon-adjusted value.

What is carbon-adjusted profitability?
Carbon-adjusted profitability evaluates normal profit after explicit adjustment for carbon performance. A practical expression is:
Carbon-Adjusted EBITDA = Conventional EBITDA – Carbon Cost + Green Premium Income
Carbon cost may be an internal carbon price, the actual cost of purchasing Carbon Credit Certificates under CCTS, or the opportunity cost of high emissions relative to peers. Green premium income arises when customers pay more for verified lower-carbon cement or when the company sells surplus credits. Tracking both conventional and carbon-adjusted profit side-by-side gives management a clearer picture of value creation under evolving market rules.

Table 1. Traditional KPIs versus Carbon-Adjusted Leadership Metrics
Traditional Focus New Leadership Metric Why It Matters
Specific energy consumption Emissions intensity (kg CO2/t cement) Directly linked to future CCTS and CBAM costs
Kiln utilisation Carbon-adjusted contribution margin Reveals true value of incremental volume
Clinker factor Share of lower-carbon products sold (incl. LC3) Measures commercial success of the transition
Power cost per tonne Effective carbon cost per tonne sold Expose hidden liabilities
Absolute EBITDA Carbon-adjusted EBITDA + green premium Aligning profit with future market reality

LC3: Technical foundations and performance advantages
LC3 is a ternary blended cement that typically combines approximately 50 per cent clinker, 30 per cent calcined clay, 15 per cent limestone and 5 per cent gypsum (the classic LC3-50 formulation). The decisive technical advantage is that clay is calcined at 700–850 °C, far below the 1,450 °C required for clinker production. This lower temperature, together with the substantial reduction in clinker content, delivers CO2 reductions of 30–40 per cent relative to ordinary Portland cement (OPC).
Chemistry is synergistic. Calcined kaolinitic clay (metakaolin) reacts with calcium hydroxide from clinker hydration and with limestone to form additional C-A-S-H gel and carboaluminate phases. These phases densify the microstructure, reduce porosity and improve durability.
Field experience shows superior resistance to chloride ingress, sulphate attack and alkali–silica reaction. Early-age strength can match OPC with high-reactivity clays; later-age strengths routinely meet 42.5 and 52.5 grade requirements.
Importantly, LC3 does not require high-purity kaolin. Clays with 40 per cent or even lower kaolinite content can be activated successfully, expanding raw-material availability across India. Calcination can use adapted rotary kilns or dedicated flash calciners, making the technology compatible with existing plant infrastructure and far less capital-intensive than carbon capture.
Economic analyses show that LC3 can be produced at equal or lower cost than OPC in many locations because of reduced energy demand and cheaper clay. Life-cycle assessments consistently report 30–40 per cent lower embodied CO2 per tonne of cement.
Table 2. Comparative profile: OPC versus LC3-50
Parameter OPC LC3-50
Typical clinker content ~95 per cent ~50 per cent
CO2 emissions (relative) Baseline (≈0.85 t CO2/t cement process + fuel) 30–40 per cent lower
Clay calcination temperature Not applicable 700–850 °C
Key hydration products C-S-H, portlandite, ettringite C-A-S-H + carboaluminates
Chloride & sulphate resistance Good Superior
Production cost potential Baseline Equal or lower in most locations
Infrastructure compatibility Existing High (minor adaptations)

In India, commercial adoption has begun in earnest. JK Cement commenced the first commercial production of LC3 in the Indian subcontinent at its Mangrol plant in Rajasthan in 2025 under BIS standard IS 18189.
By early 2026, approximately 2,000 tonnes had been produced and sold, avoiding an estimated 500 tonnes of CO2. JK Lakshmi Cement followed with commercial launch of its Green PRO LC3 grade from the Jaykaypuram plant. As of mid-2026, two producers are supplying LC3 to the market. The first large-scale infrastructure application is the Noida International Airport (Jewar), where LC3 was used in the runway and a building complex, demonstrating full constructability and performance under demanding conditions. These early volumes are still small relative to national cement demand, but they mark the critical transition from pilot to commercial reality. Companies that scale capacity now will be positioned to capture both CCTS credits and emerging green-procurement demand.

Why the shift is accelerating
According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, direct carbon pricing now covers nearly 30 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions and generated more than US$107 billion in public revenue in 2025. The average global carbon price stands at approximately US$21 per tonne, although regional prices vary widely.
In Europe, the EU ETS price has traded near €80–85 per tonen in mid-2026. Free allocation for cement is being withdrawn in parallel with CBAM. European producers therefore face a clear signal: every tonne of avoided CO2 improves both compliance and competitiveness. Holcim has scaled calcined-clay production, including Europe’s first dedicated line at Saint-Pierre-la-Cour (France) and a second line in the Czech Republic (2026). Heidelberg Materials, Cementir (FUTURECEM) and others have commercialised low-clinker calcined-clay blends across multiple markets, showing that carbon-adjusted profitability is already reshaping capital allocation in the world’s most mature carbon market.India’s CCTS is now operational. Binding emission intensity targets apply to 186 cement facilities for FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27. Average required reductions for integrated plants are modest (around 2.7 per cent by FY 2027), yet the direction is clear.
Trading of Carbon Credit Certificates is expected in the second half of 2026, with early prices likely in the `800–1,500 per tonne range. Plants that outperform targets can sell credits; those that underperform must buy them or face compensation. Cement is well positioned to be a net supplier of credits if clinker factor continues to fall through LC3 and other low-clinker systems.

Way forward for India
India starts from a strong baseline, world-class energy efficiency and a clinker factor already lower than the global average. The next competitive frontier is the deliberate reduction of process emissions through clinker substitution at scale. LC3 is uniquely suited to Indian conditions because suitable clays are widely distributed, the technology fits existing kiln and grinding infrastructure, and the resulting product can meet the performance demands of both infrastructure and building construction.
A practical national pathway contains five interlocking elements:

Standards and acceptance: Accelerated finalisation and promotion of BIS specifications for calcined-clay and limestone–calcined-clay cements will remove a key barrier to commercial uptake. Alignment with European practice (EN 197-5) can facilitate knowledge transfer and export readiness.
Supply-chain development: Investment in flash calcination capacity and systematic characterisation of regional clay deposits will secure reliable, low-cost feedstock. Existing rotary kilns can be adapted for initial volumes while dedicated calciners are built.
Incentive alignment: Part of variable compensation for plant managers, sales teams and senior leadership should be linked to emissions intensity reduction and to the volume of lower-carbon products (including LC3) sold. Without this link, traditional volume and cost targets will continue to dominate behaviour.
Product-level carbon accounting: Reliable measurement of emissions intensity at the individual cement grade level, supported by third-party verification where required, is essential for both CCTS compliance and credible green claims.
Demand-side pull: Green public procurement policies that specify maximum embodied-carbon thresholds for major infrastructure projects will create a predictable market for LC3 and other low-carbon cements, accelerating scale and cost reduction.
Companies that treat LC3 as a strategic product line rather than a niche offering will be better positioned to generate surplus Carbon Credit Certificates, capture any emerging green premium, and protect margins as carbon costs rise.

Organisational changes required
Technical capability alone is insufficient. Three organisational shifts are required.
Daily management: Emissions intensity must appear on the same daily and monthly dashboards as heat consumption, power consumption and utilization. Plant reviews should examine both conventional and carbon-adjusted results.
Incentives: A meaningful portion of bonuses for plant heads, technical teams and sales leadership should be tied to lower emissions intensity and successful commercialisation of LC3 and other low-carbon grades.
Commercial approach: Sales teams need clear volume and pricing targets for lower-carbon products, supported by technical service that helps customers specify and place the material correctly. Without commercial pull, excellent technical performance remains under-utilised.

Table 3. Three-stage roadmap to carbon-adjusted profitability
Time Horizon Priority Actions Expected Outcome
Next 12 months Add emissions intensity to plant dashboards; establish internal carbon price; initiate LC3 pilot production and customer trials Visibility and early organisational learning
12–24 months Revise incentive systems; scale LC3 and other low-carbon grades to key accounts; secure third-party verification capability People and sales aligned with carbon goals
24–36 months Embed carbon-adjusted metrics in board reporting and capital allocation; expand calcined-clay capacity Full system integration and competitive advantage

Questions senior leaders should ask
Boards can accelerate the transition by insisting on answers to a short list of questions:
• Is our carbon-adjusted profit improving, stable or declining relative to conventional EBITDA?
• Did recent volume growth improve or worsen our emissions intensity?
• What share of sales already comes from lower-carbon products, including LC3, and what is the trajectory?
• How exposed is our capital expenditure plan to rising carbon costs under CCTS and potential CBAM-related requirements?
• Do our incentive systems still reward only volume and cost, or have they been updated to include carbon performance?
Treating carbon with the same seriousness as energy cost or kiln utilization does not diminish operational excellence; it expands the definition of excellence to match the new competitive reality.

Looking ahead
By 2030 the gap between leading and lagging cement companies will not be decided by who records the lowest specific heat consumption. It will be decided by who delivers the strongest carbon-adjusted profits.
Absolute emissions may still rise as national production grows. That is not the issue. Companies that reduce intensity year after year and successfully sell cleaner products will pull ahead in both domestic and export markets. Those that do not will fall behind, even if their traditional efficiency numbers look strong.
Operational excellence built the Indian cement industry. It remains the foundation. It is no longer the complete picture. Carbon-adjusted profitability is the clearer measure of success.
LC3 is not a distant technology. It is available now. It cuts CO3 by 30–40 per cent, works with existing plants, and is already in commercial production in India. Companies that treat it as a strategic product, not a pilot, will protect their margins and generate tradable credits.
Leaders who act now will place carbon metrics on daily dashboards, link incentives to intensity reduction and LC3 sales, invest in calcined-clay capacity, and build commercial capability to sell lower-carbon products. They will shape the next chapter of the industry.

References

World Bank. (2026). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP). (2026). India Carbon Credit Trading Scheme – Status and Coverage. Berlin: ICAP.
Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change / Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025). Greenhouse Gases Emission Intensity Target Rules, 2025. New Delhi: Government of India.
Scrivener, K., Martirena, F., Bishnoi, S., & Maity, S. (2018). Calcined clay limestone cements (LC3). Cement and Concrete Research, 114, 49–56.
RMI. (2024). The Business Case for LC3. Rocky Mountain Institute.
European Commission. (2026). EU Emissions Trading System – Allowance Price Data and Free Allocation Phase-out Schedule. Brussels.
Holcim. (2025–2026). Scaling Calcined Clay for Sustainable Building – Corporate Updates on European and Latin American Capacity. Zurich: Holcim Ltd.
LC3 Project / EPFL. (2026). LC3 – A Guide to Best Practices for Scalable, Affordable and Sustainable Low-Carbon Building. Lausanne: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
Business Today / Industry Reports. (2026). First Large-Scale LC3 Application at Noida International Airport, Jewar. New Delhi.
NITI Aayog / Industry Analyses. (2026). Roadmap and Baseline Performance Indicators for the Indian Cement Sector. New Delhi.
Springer / Innovative Infrastructure Solutions. (2026). LC3 Systems: A Review of Chemistry, Performance, Durability and Sustainability toward Market Adoption.
Cementir Holding / Industry Sources. (2025–2026). FUTURECEM and Related Low-Clinker Technologies in Europe.
Climate Risk Horizons & Independent Analyses. (2026). Assessment of Emission Intensity Targets under India’s CCTS for Cement and Other Hard-to-Abate Sectors.
GCCA / TERI. (Various years). Decarbonization Roadmaps for the Indian Cement Industry.
EN 197-5:2021. Cement – Part 5: Portland-composite cement CEM II/C-M and Composite cement CEM VI. European Committee for Standardization.

Concrete

More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe

Published

3 weeks ago

August 28, 2026

admin

Dijam Panigrahi makes a counterintuitive but data-backed argument that routing every sensor alert through human approval does not make cement plants safer.

India’s cement industry has spent the last two years wiring kilns, mills and coolers with sensors and automated control systems, and the safety case for doing so is strong on paper. Contract workers still make up the majority of the industry’s workforce, and fatal accidents remain a recurring problem. The Indian National Cement Workers Federation has noted that around 83 per cent of workers in the sector hold precarious positions, a fact that resurfaced after an oxygen cylinder explosion killed three contract workers at a plant in Chhattisgarh.
Industry tallies compiled by IndustriALL found cement plants recorded at least seventeen accidents in one year with 21 workers killed, and ten accidents the following year with nine killed, most of them contract staff. Automated monitoring, in theory, closes that gap. A sensor never gets complacent and never skips a check because a shift is short staffed.
However, plants that respond by routing every anomaly reading to a person for approval are quietly building a system that fails the same way understaffing does. When operators receive dozens of flagged deviations a shift, most of them minor, they learn a simple lesson: the fastest way through the queue is to approve without reading closely. The safety benefit disappears, not because the technology failed, but because the humans supervising it adapted to the volume.

Why alerts get ignored
A study cited by manufacturing technology publisher Applied SmartFactory found more than 95 per cent of alarms in a semiconductor fab were low priority, and only about 4 per cent ever triggered an action, with just 100 out of 5,000 alarms accounting for 70 per cent of all alarm activity. The mechanism is the same whether the trigger is a vibration sensor or an AI model flagging a kiln temperature swing. Once the ratio of noise to signal crosses a threshold, workers stop treating the system as a decision aid and start treating it as a formality to clear.
The scale of AI deployment underway makes this more than a theoretical risk. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index Report found organisational adoption of AI has reached 88 per cent, even as documented AI incidents rose to 362 in 2025, up sharply from 233 the year before, according to analysis of the report. The Index also found only about a third of organisations have adopted a formal governance framework, with NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework cited by 33 per cent and ISO/IEC 42001 cited by 36 per cent.
Most manufacturers are deploying monitoring systems faster than they are building the judgment for when a flagged event actually needs a person’s attention. In India, plants run by JK Cement have begun pairing CCTV feeds with AI to define safe zones around heavy machinery, a promising direction that still depends on operators trusting and reading the alerts the system generates.

A three-tier model for cement plant
The fix is not less monitoring or more monitoring. It is classifying decisions by risk and by novelty, rather than treating human oversight as a single switch that is either on or off. A workable model sorts factory floor events into three tiers.
The first tier, proceed, covers deviations the plant has seen before that fall within known safe bounds, such as a kiln feed rate adjustment within an established range. These should run without a stop for approval, because routing them to a person only trains that person to click through.
The second tier, pause, covers events that are unusual but not yet dangerous, such as a vibration reading trending toward a limit or a fuel blend shifting outside its typical mix. These warrant a brief human check before the system proceeds, giving an operator the chance to apply judgment the model does not yet have.
The third tier, escalate, covers events that are both high risk and unfamiliar, such as a pressure reading combined with a temperature spike that has no close precedent in the plant’s history. These should stop the process entirely and require a decision from someone with the authority to shut down a line.

Who should set the threshold
Where these tiers get drawn matters as much as the framework itself. Threshold setting is frequently handed to the vendor supplying the monitoring software or to a plant’s IT department, both of which understand the technology but not the specific tolerances of a given kiln, mill or line. Operations staff, who know that a particular grinding unit runs hotter under monsoon humidity or that a calciner behaves differently after a refractory reline, are better positioned to calibrate what counts as routine on their own equipment.
Handing threshold ownership to operations does not remove IT or vendors from the process, but it puts the calibration decision closest to the people who live with its consequences on the floor.

Signals that oversight is actually working
A few concrete indicators reveal whether a monitoring setup is functioning as intended or simply providing the appearance of safety. The escalation rate over time is the first: a rate that stays flat or climbs slowly as operations mature is healthy, while one that spikes and then falls sharply often means operators have started overriding the system rather than engaging with it. Time to resolution is the second: escalations that take progressively longer to close suggest fatigue or confusion about ownership, not diligence. The third, and most telling, is how accurate the system’s own uncertainty estimates turn out to be, meaning whether events flagged as high risk actually correlated with real incidents, and whether events waved through stayed incident free. A system whose escalations do not track with actual outcomes trains operators toward the same complacency that unmonitored equipment produces.
None of this argues against automation in Indian cement manufacturing, where a labor structure built on contract work and a track record of serious accidents make better monitoring an urgent need. It argues for treating human oversight as a design problem with three distinct settings, rather than a single
dial turned up whenever a plant wants to look safer on paper.

About the author:
Dijam Panigrahi, Co-founder and COO, GridRaster, is a spatial computing platform for industrial enterprises and manufacturers.