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Rerating Quarter

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It’s time to revisit mid-cap stock valuations and there are potential target upgrades over the medium to long term, says VAIBHAV AGARWAL of PhillipCapital India.

Ground checks and interactions with various stakeholders in the cement industry suggest that significant potential upsides exist for mid-cap stocks over the medium to long term. Given a favourable demand scenario, we understand cement prices have been raised across pockets by ~10 per cent and further price hikes of 3-5 per cent cannot be ruled out in May 2017.

After the monsoon arrives, cement prices are unlikely to be increased until the end of H1FY18. Even if prices drop, we expect them to remain 5-6 per cent higher than March prices. The Goods and Services (GST) tax regime is unlikely to make an unfavourable impact on cement prices; if it benefits due to GST, the industry may pass on some of those gains. EBITDA may surge in FY18/19 if robust cement price hikes sustain. Rerating of valuations is imminent for mid-cap stocks and we do not rule out potential target upgrades in the medium to long term.

Positive Volume Commentary
Even assuming flat volumes in Q1, this will be a rerating quarter for the sector. We have seen volume commentary turning positive, but volume concerns persist in a few pockets (Tamil Nadu, Kerala and parts of Central India). Despite assuming flat volume growth for the sector, Q1 earnings are likely to surprise quite positively, driven by price hikes. In a conservative scenario (0 to -5 per cent), year-on-year (y-o-y) volume growth and with the current cement prices, Q1 sectoral EBITDA/tonne is likely to improve by 20-40 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), 15-20 per cent y-o-y; absolute EBITDA could shoot up by a minimum of 15-20 per cent. With volumes turning favourable and no rollbacks in cement prices over the next two months, the potential is huge.

Mid-cap cash flows are robust and likely to accelerate debt repayments. Mid-cap stock valuations have always had the overhang of higher debt versus large caps. However, debt repayment for most mid-caps is likely to accelerate in Q1 as the sector sees robust cash generation. This will be a key rerating factor and is likely to drive valuations. We expect good sense will prevail in the sector and players will not rush in with fresh capex announcements.

Players are evolving and this makes prices more stable over the long run. Historically, price hikes have always been a call for concern (break in price discipline). We do not rule out intermittent price disturbances, but we understand that players are evolving.

Stable Pricing
Even newcomers to the industry understand the need for stable prices; they are also debt-ridden and cannot afford to operate in an unfavourable price scenario. This gives us confidence that price hikes are more sustainable than in the past. FY18 should be a turnaround year for stock valuations; we do not rule out the possibility of a partial rollback of the recent price hikes. However, even in a conservative scenario (if only 4-5 per cent price hikes sustain in FY18), EBITDA/tonne has the potential to improve by 10-15 per cent or even higher in certain cases.

Valuation gaps
The largest major of the sector trades at a per tonne valuation of $200, while most mid-caps trade at $70-120. As the scenario turns favourable and as mid-caps get rid of debt faster than expected, this valuation gap could narrow, to say, about 25 per cent discount to large-caps. The potential upsides can be huge.

We do not rule out potential target upgrades in the medium to long term; our current price targets for most mid-caps have built-in target valuations of $70-120/tonne. We see the valuation gap between mid-caps and large caps narrowing as sectoral dynamics turn favourable. We see further re-rating of mid-caps over the medium to long term.

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Concrete

Budget 2026–27 infra thrust and CCUS outlay to lift cement sector outlook

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Higher capex, city-led growth and CCUS funding improve demand visibility and decarbonisation prospects for cement

Mumbai

Cement manufacturers have welcomed the Union Budget 2026–27’s strong infrastructure thrust, with public capital expenditure increased to Rs 12.2 trillion, saying it reinforces infrastructure as the central engine of economic growth and strengthens medium-term prospects for the cement sector. In a statement, the Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) has welcomed the Union budget 2026-27 for reinforcing the ambitions for the nation’s growth balancing the aspirations of the people through inclusivity inspired by the vision of Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, for a Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Atmanirbharta.

The budget underscores India’s steady economic trajectory over the past 12 years, marked by fiscal discipline, sustained growth and moderate inflation, and offers strong demand visibility for infrastructure linked sectors such as cement.

The Budget’s strong infrastructure push, with public capital expenditure rising from Rs 11.2 trillion in fiscal year 2025–26 to Rs 12.2 trillion in fiscal year 2026–27, recognises infrastructure as the primary anchor for economic growth creating positive prospects for the Indian cement industry and improving long term visibility for the cement sector. The emphasis on Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities with populations above 5 lakh and the creation of City Economic Regions (CERs) with an allocation of Rs 50 billion per CER over five years, should accelerate construction activity across housing, transport and urban services, supporting broad based cement consumption.

Logistics and connectivity measures announced in the budget are particularly significant for the cement industry. The announcement of new dedicated freight corridors, the operationalisation of 20 additional National Waterways over the next five years, the launch of the Coastal Cargo Promotion Scheme to raise the modal share of waterways and coastal shipping from 6 per cent to 12 per cent by 2047, and the development of ship repair ecosystems should enhance multimodal freight efficiency, reduce logistics costs and improve the sector’s carbon footprint. The announcement of seven high speed rail corridors as growth corridors can be expected to further stimulate regional development and construction demand.

Commenting on the budget, Parth Jindal, President, Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA), said, “As India advances towards a Viksit Bharat, the three kartavya articulated in the Union Budget provide a clear context for the Nation’s growth and aspirations, combining economic momentum with capacity building and inclusive progress. The Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) appreciates the Union Budget 2026-27 for the continued emphasis on manufacturing competitiveness, urban development and infrastructure modernisation, supported by over 350 reforms spanning GST simplification, labour codes, quality control rationalisation and coordinated deregulation with States. These reforms, alongside the Budget’s focus on Youth Power and domestic manufacturing capacity under Atmanirbharta, stand to strengthen the investment environment for capital intensive sectors such as Cement. The Union Budget 2026-27 reflects the Government’s focus on infrastructure led development emerging as a structural pillar of India’s growth strategy.”

He added, “The Rs 200 billion CCUS outlay for various sectors, including Cement, fundamentally alters the decarbonisation landscape for India’s emissions intensive industries. CCUS is a significant enabler for large scale decarbonisation of industries such as Cement and this intervention directly addresses the technology and cost requirements of the Cement sector in context. The Cement Industry, fully aligned with the Government of India’s Net Zero commitment by 2070, views this support as critical to enabling the adoption and scale up of CCUS technologies while continuing to meet the Country’s long term infrastructure needs.”

Dr Raghavpat Singhania, Vice President, CMA, said, “The government’s sustained infrastructure push supports employment, regional development and stronger local supply chains. Cement manufacturing clusters act as economic anchors across regions, generating livelihoods in construction, logistics and allied sectors. The budget’s focus on inclusive growth, execution and system level enablers creates a supportive environment for responsible and efficient expansion offering opportunities for economic growth and lending momentum to the cement sector. The increase in public capex to Rs 12.2 trillion, the focus on Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, and the creation of City Economic Regions stand to strengthen the growth of the cement sector. We welcome the budget’s emphasis on tourism, cultural and social infrastructure, which should broaden construction activity across regions. Investments in tourism facilities, heritage and Buddhist circuits, regional connectivity in Purvodaya and North Eastern States, and the strengthening of emergency and trauma care infrastructure in district hospitals reinforce the cement sector’s role in enabling inclusive growth.”

CMA also noted the Government’s continued commitment to fiscal discipline, with the fiscal deficit estimated at 4.3 per cent of GDP in FY27, reinforcing macroeconomic stability and investor confidence.

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Concrete

JK Cement Crosses 31 MTPA Capacity with Commissioning of Buxar Plant in Bihar

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JK Cement has commissioned a 3 MTPA Grey Cement plant in Buxar, Bihar, taking its total capacity to 31.26 MTPA and placing it among India’s top five grey cement producers. The ₹500 crore investment strengthens the company’s national footprint while supporting Bihar’s infrastructure growth and local economic development.

JK Cement Ltd., one of India’s leading cement manufacturers, has announced the commissioning of its new state-of-the-art Grey Cement plant in Buxar, Bihar, marking a significant milestone in the company’s growth trajectory. With the commissioning of this facility, JK Cement’s total production capacity has increased to 31.26 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), enabling the company to cross the 30 MTPA threshold.

This expansion positions JK Cement among the top five Grey Cement manufacturers in India, strengthening its national footprint and reinforcing its long-term growth strategy.

Commenting on the strategic achievement, Dr Raghavpat Singhania, Managing Director, JK Cement, said, “Crossing 31 MTPA is a significant turning point in JK Cement’s expansion and demonstrates the scale, resilience, and aspirations of our company. In addition to making a significant contribution to Bihar’s development vision, the commissioning of our Buxar plant represents a strategic step towards expanding our national footprint. We are committed to developing top-notch manufacturing capabilities that boost India’s infrastructure development and generate long-term benefits for local communities.”

The Buxar plant has a capacity of 3 MTPA and is spread across 100 acres. Strategically located on the Patna–Buxar highway, the facility enables faster and more efficient distribution across Bihar and adjoining regions. While JK Cement entered the Bihar market last year through supplies from its Prayagraj plant, the Buxar facility will now allow the company to serve the state locally, with deliveries possible within 24 hours across Bihar.

Sharing his views on the expansion, Madhavkrishna Singhania, Joint Managing Director & CEO, JK Cement, said, “JK Cement is now among India’s top five producers of grey cement after the Buxar plant commissioning. Our capacity to serve Bihar locally, more effectively, and on a larger scale is strengthened by this facility. Although we had already entered the Bihar market last year using Prayagraj supplies, local manufacturing now enables us to be nearer to our clients and significantly raise service standards throughout the state. Buxar places us at the center of this chance to promote sustainable growth for both the company and the region in Bihar, a high-growth market with strong infrastructure momentum.”

The new facility represents a strategic step in supporting Bihar’s development vision by ensuring faster access to superior quality cement for infrastructure, housing, and commercial projects. JK Cement has invested approximately ₹500 crore in the project. Construction began in March 2025, and commercial production commenced on January 29, 2026.

In addition to strengthening JK Cement’s regional presence, the Buxar plant is expected to generate significant direct and indirect employment opportunities and attract ancillary industries, thereby contributing to the local economy and the broader industrial ecosystem.

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Economy & Market

From Vision to Action: Fornnax Global Growth Strategy for 2026

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Jignesh Kundaria, Director & CEO, Fornnax Recycling Technology

As 2026 begins, Fornnax is accelerating its global growth through strategic expansion, large-scale export-led installations, and technology-driven innovation across multiple recycling streams. Backed by manufacturing scale-up and a strong people-first culture, the company aims to lead sustainable, high-capacity recycling solutions worldwide.

As 2026 begins, Fornnax stands at a pivotal stage in its growth journey. Over the past few years, the company has built a strong foundation rooted in engineering excellence, innovation, and a firm commitment to sustainable recycling. The focus ahead is clear: to grow faster, stronger, and on a truly global scale.

“Our 2026 strategy is driven by four key priorities,” explains Mr. Jignesh Kundaria, Director & CEO of Fornnax.

First, Global Expansion

We will strengthen our presence in major markets such as Europe, Australia, and the GCC, while continuing to grow across our existing regions. By aligning with local regulations and customer requirements, we aim to establish ourselves as a trusted global partner for advanced recycling solutions.

A major milestone in this journey will be export-led global installations. In 2026, we will commission Europe’s highest-capacity shredding line, reinforcing our leadership in high-capacity recycling solutions.

Second, Product Innovation and Technology Leadership

Innovation remains at the heart of our vision to become a global leader in recycling technology by 2030. Our focus is on developing solutions that are state-of-the-art, economical, efficient, reliable, and environmentally responsible.

Building on a decade-long legacy in tyre recycling, we have expanded our portfolio into new recycling applications, including municipal solid waste (MSW), e-waste, cable, and aluminium recycling. This diversification has already created strong momentum across the industry, marked by key milestones scheduled to become operational this year, such as:

  • Installation of India’s largest e-waste and cable recycling line.
  • Commissioning of a high-capacity MSW RDF recycling line.

“Sustainable growth must be scalable and profitable,” emphasizes Mr. Kundaria. In 2026, Fornnax will complete Phase One of our capacity expansion by establishing the world’s largest shredding equipment manufacturing facility. This 23-acre manufacturing unit, scheduled for completion in July 2026, will significantly enhance our production capability and global delivery capacity.

Alongside this, we will continue to improve efficiency across manufacturing, supply chain, and service operations, while strengthening our service network across India, Australia, and Europe to ensure faster and more reliable customer support.

Finally: People and Culture

“People remain the foundation of Fornnax’s success. We will continue to invest in talent, leadership development, and a culture built on ownership, collaboration, and continuous improvement,” states Mr. Kundaria.

With a strong commitment to sustainability in everything we do, our ambition is not only to grow our business, but also to actively support the circular economy and contribute to a cleaner, more sustainable future.

Guided by a shared vision and disciplined execution, 2026 is set to be a defining year for us, driven by innovation across diverse recycling applications, large-scale global installations, and manufacturing excellence.

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