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Cement Volume Set to Rise to 450MT by FY25 with Rising Infrastructure

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As the infrastructure and real estate industry is set to upcycle, CareEdge reports a boost in demand for cement and shares its projection on expected growth.

The cement industry has benefitted from high volume growth, majorly driven by a revival in demand from the housing sectors, upcoming infrastructure projects such as the construction of roads, railways, and highways as well as generous rural demand. The cement sector remains one of the key beneficiaries of economic growth as there is a positive correlation between GDP growth rate & cement demand growth. In the 9MFY23, the overall cement demand registered 11 per cent growth over last year and on a full year basis CareEdge expects 8 per cent to 9 per cent growth.
The central government continues to focus on increasing capex outlay to spur growth in light of the 2024 general elections. The capex for 2023-24 (Budget Estimate) at Rs 10 lakh crore is almost 3 times of the capital expenditure in FY2019-20. The capex spree also augurs well with the central government’s aim to make growth more inclusive as investment in infrastructure and productive capacity have a multiplier effect. The public sector capex has focused on improving the connectivity inside the country and gradually the allocation for highways and railways have surged from 35 per cent in FY18 to 43 per cent in FY23. The Union Budget 2024 also increased outlay on railways and plans for 50 new airports.


The combined effect of increasing infrastructure spends, real estate upcycle, low per capita consumption and the expected increase in private sector capex well supports the demand growth for cement in FY24-FY25. CareEdge expects the sales volume for the cement industry to grow by 8-9 per cent in FY23 to 380-385 MT and to 440-450 MT by FY25 year-end with Central and eastern regions witnessing more lucrative demand. Given the demand is expected to remain robust in upcoming years, the cement players have also announced additional capacity to keep up with the growth pace.
The cement industry is concentrated with the top 10 players having more than 68 per cent of the installed capacity share. Going forward as well the capacity expansion during FY23-FY25 is expected to be predominantly undertaken by the top players and hence the consolidated nature of the sector is likely to continue. “The sector may also witness acquisition of mid or smaller-sized players by the top players amid the prolonged margin pressure which the sector is witnessing. This will lead to further consolidation in the sector and better pricing discipline amongst remaining players,” said Ravleen Sethi, Associate Director, CareEdge.

Concrete

Jefferies’ Optimism Fuels Cement Stock Rally

The industry is aiming price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

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Cement stocks surged over 5% on Monday, driven by Jefferies’ positive outlook on demand recovery, supported by increased government capital expenditure and favourable price trends.

JK Cement led the rally with a 5.3% jump, while UltraTech Cement rose 3.82%, making it the top performer on the Nifty 50. Dalmia Bharat and Grasim Industries gained over 3% each, with Shree Cement and Ambuja Cement adding 2.77% and 1.32%, respectively.

“Cement stocks have been consolidating without significant upward movement for over a year,” noted Vikas Jain, head of research at Reliance Securities. “The Jefferies report with positive price feedback prompted a revaluation of these stocks today.”

According to Jefferies, cement prices were stable in November, with earlier declines bottoming out. The industry is now targeting price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

The brokerage highlighted moderate demand growth in October and November, with recovery expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, supported by a revival in government infrastructure spending.
Analysts are optimistic about a stronger recovery in the latter half of FY25, driven by anticipated increases in government investments in infrastructure projects.
(ET)

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Steel Ministry Proposes 25% Safeguard Duty on Steel Imports

The duty aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports.

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The Ministry of Steel has proposed a 25% safeguard duty on certain steel imports to address concerns raised by domestic producers. The proposal emerged during a meeting between Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi, attended by senior officials and executives from leading steel companies like SAIL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and AMNS India.

Following the meeting, Goyal highlighted on X the importance of steel and metallurgical coke industries in India’s development, emphasising discussions on boosting production, improving quality, and enhancing global competitiveness. Kumaraswamy echoed the sentiment, pledging collaboration between ministries to create a business-friendly environment for domestic steelmakers.

The safeguard duty proposal aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports, particularly from free trade agreement (FTA) nations. Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik noted that 62% of steel imports currently enter at zero duty under FTAs, with imports rising to 5.51 million tonnes (MT) during April-September 2024-25, compared to 3.66 MT in the same period last year. Imports from China surged significantly, reaching 1.85 MT, up from 1.02 MT a year ago.

Industry experts, including think tank GTRI, have raised concerns about FTAs, highlighting cases where foreign producers partner with Indian firms to re-import steel at concessional rates. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava also pointed to challenges like port delays and regulatory hurdles, which strain over 10,000 steel user units in India.

The government’s proposal reflects its commitment to supporting the domestic steel industry while addressing trade imbalances and promoting a self-reliant manufacturing sector.

(ET)

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India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Panel Aluminium Frames

Move boosts domestic aluminium industry, curbs low-cost imports

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The Indian government has introduced anti-dumping duties on anodized aluminium frames for solar panels and modules imported from China, a move hailed by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) as a significant step toward fostering a self-reliant aluminium sector.

The duties, effective for five years, aim to counter the influx of low-cost imports that have hindered domestic manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Finance, Chinese dumping has limited India’s ability to develop local production capabilities.

Ahead of Budget 2025, the aluminium industry has urged the government to introduce stronger trade protections. Key demands include raising import duties on primary and downstream aluminium products from 7.5% to 10% and imposing a uniform 7.5% duty on aluminium scrap to curb the influx of low-quality imports.

India’s heavy reliance on aluminium imports, which now account for 54% of the country’s demand, has resulted in an annual foreign exchange outflow of Rupees 562.91 billion. Scrap imports, doubling over the last decade, have surged to 1,825 KT in FY25, primarily sourced from China, the Middle East, the US, and the UK.

The AAI noted that while advanced economies like the US and China impose strict tariffs and restrictions to protect their aluminium industries, India has become the largest importer of aluminium scrap globally. This trend undermines local producers, who are urging robust measures to enhance the domestic aluminium ecosystem.

With India’s aluminium demand projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, industry leaders emphasize the need for stronger policies to support local production and drive investments in capacity expansion. The anti-dumping duties on solar panel components, they say, are a vital first step in building a sustainable and competitive aluminium sector.

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