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The much awaited consolidation is here for good

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Market saw two major decisions on consolidation,Vaibhav Agarwal of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. captures.
As expected, February 2016 has seen few major and historic consolidation moves. While, Birla Corp called off its proposed transaction with Lafarge India and entered into an agreement with Reliance Cement to buy-out whole of their capacity, UltraTech Cement announced an historical deal by agreeing to buy-out 22.4mn tn capacity of Jaypee Cement. In our opinion, these moves should be seen as more of a structural evolvement of the cement industry rather than just consolidation. We also believe the valuations of these deals may not be a benchmark for any future deals, especially the UltraTech-Jaypee deal, as these deals were entered more by compulsion and not by choice of the sellers. The same is true for buyers as well but UltraTech made up for the same by a good bargain on the valuation. This consolidation will mean erosion of 6% of competition from Indian cement markets and will definitely give an edge to the price stability and pricing power of cement manufacturers in the longer term. Now the only large capacity which is up for sale is the whole of assets of Lafarge India (~11mn tn capacity) and we understand CRH and JSW Cement are the two leading contenders here. Interestingly, the buy-out strategies of both these contenders appear distinct. While CRH is known to buy assets at a premium valuation, JSW Cement is unlikely to buy any asset at a premium. We need to wait and watch whether the buyers of these assets understand the urgency of Lafarge India to sell these assets and make the most of the deal, as UltraTech Cement did with Jaypee Cement. This may be probably the last leg of consolidation move in the Indian cement industry and we expect the deal flow to slow down for the next 2-3 years within the sector. Notably, these recent deals may risk Birla Corp?s long term financial viability as they may be worried of UltraTech?s central India acquisition of Jaypee Cement. Given the competition intensity in the region, post consolidation, UltraTech may turn pretty aggressive in these markets which may harm Birla Corp?s financial strength in the longer term. Barring these possibilities, the only larger transaction which may happen in the long run is consolidation of Century Textile?s Cement division with AV Birla Group / UltraTech Cement and this will again be in favor of the industry. But in our opinion, this is away for at least 2-3 years from now.

As far as Q3FY16 earnings are concerned, consolidated volumes for our coverage universe grew by 10%/7% yoy/qoq. No disappointment on volumes is the best part of Q3 and probably indicates the green-shoots of demand. Shree Cement continued its outperformance on volume growth with maximum 23%/12% yoy/qoq growth. Volume growth for large caps was muted and we understand this was mainly to protect pricing. Amongst multi-region large-caps, UltraTech outperformed peers and the maximum alignment was seen in case of Ambuja, which returned to its earlier strategy of volume calibration to ensure better pricing. Blended realisations for the sector remained down 1%/3% yoy/qoq and we did not observe any material disappointment. Ambuja Cements and Dalmia Bharat outperformed the realisation trend with flattish qoq. Maximum disappointment came from JK Cement at -6% qoq; despite this, it beat consensus? expectations. This probably also means that JK Cement has the competitive advantage to generate earnings growth higher than peers with bounce back in realisations.

Operating costs for the sector were the biggest saviours in Q3 earnings. Costs declined by 3% yoy/qoq. Power & fuel costs were the biggest contributors GCo down 18%/11% yoy/qoq. Mangalam Cement showed maximum improvement in cost structure yoy (-10%) driven by stock adjustments and high base, while JK Cement showed maximum improvement qoq (-8%) driven by savings from its Mangrol expansion. Amongst large-caps, UltraTech outperformed peers on opex by delivering 3%/6% yoy/qoq declines in opex. The opex trigger is yet to materialise in Ambuja as pet coke usage remained flattish at ~50%. Had cost savings been delivered at Ambuja, its operating results would have been the best. Ambuja could deliver on opex saving from Q1CY16.

Despite no disappointment in volumes and cost savings, EBITDA trend for the sector looks flattish qoq. Sectoral EBITDA/tonne was at Rs 705, -1%/+14% qoq/yoy. Yoy jump is largely on cost savings. EBITDA improvement is now realisation dependent.

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Steel: Shielded or Strengthened?

CW explores the impact of pro-steel policies on construction and infrastructure and identifies gaps that need to be addressed.

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Going forward, domestic steel mills are targeting capacity expansion
of nearly 40 per cent through till FY31, adding 80-85 mt, translating
into an investment pipeline of $ 45-50 billion. So, Jhunjhunwala points
out that continuing the safeguard duty will be vital to prevent a surge
in imports and protect domestic prices from external shocks. While in
FY26, the industry operating profit per tonne is expected to hold at
around $ 108, similar to last year, the industry’s earnings must
meaningfully improve from hereon to sustain large-scale investments.
Else, domestic mills could experience a significant spike in industry
leverage levels over the medium term, increasing their vulnerability to
external macroeconomic shocks.(~$ 60/tonne) over the past one month,
compressing the import parity discount to ~$ 23-25/tonne from previous
highs of ~$ 70-90/tonne, adds Jhunjhunwala. With this, he says, “the
industry can expect high resistance to further steel price increases.”

Domestic HRC prices have increased by ~Rs 5,000/tonne
“Aggressive
capacity additions (~15 mt commissioned in FY25, with 5 mt more by
FY26) have created a supply overhang, temporarily outpacing demand
growth of ~11-12 mt,” he says…

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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