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PCA cement to depend heavily congressional fiscal cliff action

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Although cement consumption and overall U.S. construction activity increased significantly more than expected in 2012, these gains would be immediately erased in 2013 if the fiscal cliff is not resolved in a timely manner.A forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) expects a 7.5 per cent jump in cement consumption in 2012, up 50 basis points from its summer forecast. However, the instability of the political landscape makes projecting 2013 consumption more challenging.The "fiscal cliff" came about from dual economic objectives reflecting the need to inject fiscal stimulus into an inert economy and the need to deal with burgeoning federal debt. Packaged together as the Budget Control Act of 2011, tax increases of $ 400 billion coupled with $ 200 billion in federal spending cuts are scheduled to go into effect January 1, 2013.If Congress resolves the fiscal cliff during its lame duck session in 2012, PCA expects the economy to continue to grow and cement consumption in 2013 to increase 6 per cent. Adversely, even if Congress addresses the policies by the first quarter of 2013, this delay will cause significant economic harm and cause a 2.7 per cent drop in cement consumption. "Because we believe the odds for either outcome are even, we have adopted a forecasting approach that minimises up and downside risk," Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist, PCA said. "Our baseline scenario blends the two possible outcomes and projects a 1.8 per cent increase in cement consumption in 2013." Sullivan also reported that the longer.Congress delays in addressing the fiscal cliff, the greater the adve-rse effect on economic growth and construction activity in particular. "If no action is taken by mid-2013, the country could be headed into a severe recession." According to the PCA report, cement consumption through September 2012 had increased 10 per cent compared to last year.

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Concrete

Steel: Shielded or Strengthened?

CW explores the impact of pro-steel policies on construction and infrastructure and identifies gaps that need to be addressed.

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Going forward, domestic steel mills are targeting capacity expansion
of nearly 40 per cent through till FY31, adding 80-85 mt, translating
into an investment pipeline of $ 45-50 billion. So, Jhunjhunwala points
out that continuing the safeguard duty will be vital to prevent a surge
in imports and protect domestic prices from external shocks. While in
FY26, the industry operating profit per tonne is expected to hold at
around $ 108, similar to last year, the industry’s earnings must
meaningfully improve from hereon to sustain large-scale investments.
Else, domestic mills could experience a significant spike in industry
leverage levels over the medium term, increasing their vulnerability to
external macroeconomic shocks.(~$ 60/tonne) over the past one month,
compressing the import parity discount to ~$ 23-25/tonne from previous
highs of ~$ 70-90/tonne, adds Jhunjhunwala. With this, he says, “the
industry can expect high resistance to further steel price increases.”

Domestic HRC prices have increased by ~Rs 5,000/tonne
“Aggressive
capacity additions (~15 mt commissioned in FY25, with 5 mt more by
FY26) have created a supply overhang, temporarily outpacing demand
growth of ~11-12 mt,” he says…

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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