Prices across markets and regions have fallen between Rs 10 and Rs 30 a 50-kg bag, compared to November, with northern India seeing the biggest decline.
At the current price of Rs 180-200 a bag, the larger companies? ratio of operating earnings a tonne are low and the smaller ones are making losses. The current trends in cement demand and prices across a majority of markets in the country remain weak. In fact, things could remain subdued for quite some time.
?Our discussions with dealers across cities suggest continued weakness in demand still persists due to subdued government investment, poor housing demand and a weak monsoon hurting rural demand,? said Mihir Jhaveri and Siddharth Vora of Religare Institutional Research. Consequently, prices across markets and regions have fallen between Rs 10 and Rs 30 a 50-kg bag, compared to November, with northern India seeing the biggest decline. Weak demand from Punjab and Haryana agri markets and subdued construction activity are key reasons.
Excess supply in Rajasthan have, in fact, forced players to push sales in the nearby western market of Gujarat. While east India has also seen higher price declines, the southern markets have seen the least, as no new entities have entered the fray and disrupted the factors in recent months.
The reason for South India prices declining by a lesser margin is the better pricing discipline among producers. Since most of them are laden with debt, the companies seem to realise the need to maintain pricing discipline. However, ?prices in north India have been fairly volatile. They were cut sharply during April-July, followed by steep hikes over August-September and cut again during November-December, to previous lows,? said Nitin Bhasin and Achint Bhagat, analysts at Ambit Capital, in a recent note.
There is also another story waiting to unfold, which could have a significant bearing on demand. ?The impact of crackdown in organised residential real estate construction in the urban cities is yet to hit the bottom, since multiple projects are still under implementation. High unsold inventory, stagnating land prices and low liquidity due to a clamp on black money will curtail future investments by developers in organised real estate, which could affect demand growth after completion of the under-construction projects,? the analysts said.
For investors, the advice from Ambit?s analysts is: ?Cement is indeed a credible play on infrastructure recovery in India but as the magnitude of demand recovery is uncertain, we opine that investors should be averse to paying expensive valuations for hopeful growth.?
While the consensus is bullish on cement stocks, the smaller ones could see a higher upside, going by target prices of analysts polled by Bloomberg. For the bigger ones, the upside is mostly seen in single digits. But, if indeed the demand recovery takes a longer time to pick up, share prices of cement companies could see pressure, as they have outperformed the S&P BSE Sensex by a good margin in the past one year.
Source: Business Standard
The demand environment continued to remain dismal mainly due to absence of pickup in private investment cycle, labour and water issues in many pockets, negligible pickup in real estate activities, and delay in regulatory clearances across the country, according to Binod Modi, Analyst, Reliance Securities Research. Average cement prices declined sharply by 7.3 per cent in December 2015, compared to the same month in the previous year. The cement price currently ruling Rs 285-290 per bag, compared to an average price of Rs 308 per bag in December 2014, the report by Reliance Securities said.
Prices in the western region corrected significantly by 7 per cent month-on-month basis, as most pockets have witnessed a severe correction owing to low activity and volume push, it said Notably, prices remained resilient in the southern markets barring Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, despite poor construction activities. The region has witnessed marginal 1.4 per cent jump in prices from Rs 345/bag in December 2014 to Rs 350/bag in December 2015, the report adds.
Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology
India is simultaneously grappling with two crises: a mounting waste emergency and an urgent need to decarbonise its most carbon-intensive industries. The cement sector, the second-largest in the world and the backbone of the nation’s infrastructure ambitions, sits at the centre of both. It consumes enormous quantities of fossil fuel, and it has the technical capacity to consume something else entirely: the waste our cities cannot get rid of.
According to CPCB and NITI Aayog projections, India generates approximately 62.4 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, with that figure expected to reach 165 million tonnes by 2030. Much of this waste is energy-rich and non-recyclable. At the same time, cement kilns operate at material temperatures of approximately 1,450 degrees Celsius, with gas temperatures reaching 2,000 degrees. This high-temperature environment is ideal for co-processing, ensuring the complete thermal destruction of organic compounds without generating toxic residues. The physics are in our favour. The infrastructure is not.
Pre-processing is not the support act for co-processing. It is the main event. Get the particle size wrong, get the moisture wrong, get the calorific value wrong and your kiln thermal stability will suffer the consequences.
The Regulatory Push Is Real
The Solid Waste Management (SWM) Rules 2026 mandate that cement plants progressively replace solid fossil fuels with Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), starting at a 5 per cent baseline and scaling to 15 per cent within six years. NITI Aayog’s 2026 Roadmap for Cement Sector Decarbonisation targets 20 to 25 per cent Thermal Substitution Rate (TSR) by 2030. Beyond compliance, every tonne of coal replaced by RDF generates measurable carbon reductions which is monetisable under India’s emerging Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS). TSR is no longer a sustainability metric. It is a financial lever.
Yet our own field assessments across multiple Indian cement plants reveal a sobering reality: the primary barrier to scaling AFR adoption is not waste availability. It is the fragmented and under-engineered pre-processing ecosystem that sits between the waste and the kiln.
Why Indian Waste Is a Different Engineering Problem
Indian municipal solid waste is not the material that imported shredding equipment was designed for. Our waste streams frequently exceed 40 per cent to 50 per cent moisture content, particularly during monsoon cycles, saturated with abrasive inerts including sand, glass, and stone. Plants relying on imported OEM equipment face months of downtime awaiting proprietary spare parts. Machines built for segregated, low-moisture waste fail quickly and disrupt the entire pre-processing operation in Indian conditions.
The two most common failures we observe are what I call the biting teeth problem and the chewing teeth problem. Plants relying solely on a primary shredder reduce bulk waste to large fractions, but the output remains too coarse for stable kiln combustion. Others attempt to use a secondary shredder as a standalone unit without a primary stage to pre-size the feed, leading to catastrophic mechanical failure. When both stages are present but mismatched in throughput capacity, the system becomes a bottleneck. Achieving the 40 to 70 tonnes per hour required for meaningful coal displacement demands a precisely coordinated two-stage process.
Engineering a Made-in-India Answer
At Fornnax, our response to these challenges is grounded in one principle: Indian waste demands Indian engineering. Our systems are built around feedstock homogeneity, the holy grail of kiln stability. Consistent particle size and predictable calorific value are the foundation of stable kiln combustion. Without them, no TSR target is achievable at scale.
Our SR-MAX2500 Dual Shaft Primary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive) processes raw, baled, or loosely mixed MSW, C&I waste, bulky waste, and plastics, reducing them to approximately 150 mm fractions at throughputs of up to 40 tonnes per hour. The R-MAX 3300 Single Shaft Secondary Shredder (Hydraulic Drive), introduced in 2025, takes that primary output and produces RDF fractions in the 30 to 80 mm range at up to 30 tonnes per hour, specifically optimised for consistent kiln feeding. We have also introduced electric drive configurations under the SR-100 HD series, with capacities between 5 and 40 tonnes per hour, already operational at a leading Indian waste-processing facility.
Looking ahead, Fornnax is expanding its portfolio with the upcoming SR-MAX3600 Hydraulic Drive primary shredder at up to 70 tonnes per hour and the R-MAX2100 Hydraulic drive secondary shredder at up to 20 tonnes per hour, designed specifically for the large-scale throughput that higher TSR ambitions require.
The Investment Case Is Now
The 2070 Net-Zero target is not a distant goal for India’s cement sector. It starts today, with decisions being made on the plant floor.
The SWM Rules 2026 are already in effect, requiring cement plants to replace coal with RDF. Carbon credit markets are opening up, and coal prices are not going to get cheaper. Every tonne of coal a cement plant replaces with waste-derived fuel saves money on one side and generates carbon credit revenue on the other. Pre-processing infrastructure is no longer just a compliance requirement. It is a business investment with a measurable return.
The good news is that nothing is missing. The technology works. The waste is available in every Indian city. The government has provided the policy direction. The only thing standing between where the industry is today and where it needs to be is the commitment to build the right infrastructure.
The cement companies that move now will not just meet the regulations. They will be ahead of every competitor that waits.
About The Author
Jignesh Kundaria is the Director and CEO of Fornnax Technology. Over an experience spanning more than two decades in the recycling industry, he has established himself as one of India’s foremost voices on waste-to-fuel technology and alternative fuel infrastructure.
The World Cement Association (WCA) has announced SiloConnect as its newest associate corporate member, expanding its network of technology providers supporting digitalisation in the cement industry. SiloConnect offers smart sensor technology that provides real-time visibility of cement inventory levels at customer silos, enabling producers to monitor stock remotely and plan deliveries more efficiently. The solution helps companies move from reactive to proactive logistics, improving delivery planning, operational efficiency and safety by reducing manual inspections. The technology is already used by major cement producers such as Holcim, Cemex and Heidelberg Materials and is deployed across more than 30 countries worldwide.
TotalEnergies and Holcim have commissioned a floating solar power plant in Obourg, Belgium, built on a rehabilitated former chalk quarry that has been converted into a lake. The project has a generation capacity of 31 MW and produces around 30 GWh of renewable electricity annually, which will be used to power Holcim’s nearby industrial operations. The project is currently the largest floating solar installation in Europe dedicated entirely to industrial self-consumption. To ensure minimal impact on the surrounding landscape, more than 700 metres of horizontal directional drilling were used to connect the solar installation to the electrical substation. The project reflects ongoing collaboration between the two companies to support industrial decarbonisation through renewable energy solutions and innovative infrastructure development.