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Cement industry to add 75 million MT capacity despite slower growth

Despite this expansion, capacity utilisation is forecasted to remain moderate.

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India’s cement industry is set to expand by 70-75 million metric tonnes (MT) over the next two years, according to ICRA. Of this, 33-37 million MT will come from clinker capacity, while grinding capacity will account for the remainder.

In FY2025, 33-35 million MT of capacity is expected to be added, with 37-39 million MT projected for FY2026. The eastern and southern regions will lead this growth, contributing 38-40 million MT collectively over the two fiscal years. Despite this expansion, capacity utilisation is forecasted to remain moderate, improving slightly to 71% in FY2025 from 70% in FY2024, driven by increased cement production.

ICRA revised its growth outlook for cement volumes in FY2025, lowering the expected year-on-year growth to 4-5% (445-450 million MT), down from the earlier estimate of 7-8%. This adjustment is attributed to a slowdown in construction activities in the housing and infrastructure sectors, following the General Elections.

However, the second half of FY2025 (H2 FY2025) is expected to see recovery, driven by strong rural consumption due to healthy monsoons, robust kharif crop output, and high reservoir levels supporting rabi sowing. Urban housing demand is also likely to support cement volumes.

Despite these positive trends, the operating profit per tonne (OPBITDA/MT) of cement companies is projected to decline by 12-15% year-on-year in FY2025, to Rs 820-850 per tonne, according to Tushar Bharambe, Assistant Vice President and Sector Head, Corporate Ratings at ICRA.

Increased government spending on infrastructure projects is anticipated to boost construction activity in H2 FY2025, offering further support to the cement sector. However, overall profitability is expected to remain under pressure for the fiscal year. (ET)

Concrete

Jefferies’ Optimism Fuels Cement Stock Rally

The industry is aiming price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

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Cement stocks surged over 5% on Monday, driven by Jefferies’ positive outlook on demand recovery, supported by increased government capital expenditure and favourable price trends.

JK Cement led the rally with a 5.3% jump, while UltraTech Cement rose 3.82%, making it the top performer on the Nifty 50. Dalmia Bharat and Grasim Industries gained over 3% each, with Shree Cement and Ambuja Cement adding 2.77% and 1.32%, respectively.

“Cement stocks have been consolidating without significant upward movement for over a year,” noted Vikas Jain, head of research at Reliance Securities. “The Jefferies report with positive price feedback prompted a revaluation of these stocks today.”

According to Jefferies, cement prices were stable in November, with earlier declines bottoming out. The industry is now targeting price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

The brokerage highlighted moderate demand growth in October and November, with recovery expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, supported by a revival in government infrastructure spending.
Analysts are optimistic about a stronger recovery in the latter half of FY25, driven by anticipated increases in government investments in infrastructure projects.
(ET)

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Concrete

Steel Ministry Proposes 25% Safeguard Duty on Steel Imports

The duty aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports.

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The Ministry of Steel has proposed a 25% safeguard duty on certain steel imports to address concerns raised by domestic producers. The proposal emerged during a meeting between Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi, attended by senior officials and executives from leading steel companies like SAIL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and AMNS India.

Following the meeting, Goyal highlighted on X the importance of steel and metallurgical coke industries in India’s development, emphasising discussions on boosting production, improving quality, and enhancing global competitiveness. Kumaraswamy echoed the sentiment, pledging collaboration between ministries to create a business-friendly environment for domestic steelmakers.

The safeguard duty proposal aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports, particularly from free trade agreement (FTA) nations. Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik noted that 62% of steel imports currently enter at zero duty under FTAs, with imports rising to 5.51 million tonnes (MT) during April-September 2024-25, compared to 3.66 MT in the same period last year. Imports from China surged significantly, reaching 1.85 MT, up from 1.02 MT a year ago.

Industry experts, including think tank GTRI, have raised concerns about FTAs, highlighting cases where foreign producers partner with Indian firms to re-import steel at concessional rates. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava also pointed to challenges like port delays and regulatory hurdles, which strain over 10,000 steel user units in India.

The government’s proposal reflects its commitment to supporting the domestic steel industry while addressing trade imbalances and promoting a self-reliant manufacturing sector.

(ET)

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India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Panel Aluminium Frames

Move boosts domestic aluminium industry, curbs low-cost imports

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The Indian government has introduced anti-dumping duties on anodized aluminium frames for solar panels and modules imported from China, a move hailed by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) as a significant step toward fostering a self-reliant aluminium sector.

The duties, effective for five years, aim to counter the influx of low-cost imports that have hindered domestic manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Finance, Chinese dumping has limited India’s ability to develop local production capabilities.

Ahead of Budget 2025, the aluminium industry has urged the government to introduce stronger trade protections. Key demands include raising import duties on primary and downstream aluminium products from 7.5% to 10% and imposing a uniform 7.5% duty on aluminium scrap to curb the influx of low-quality imports.

India’s heavy reliance on aluminium imports, which now account for 54% of the country’s demand, has resulted in an annual foreign exchange outflow of Rupees 562.91 billion. Scrap imports, doubling over the last decade, have surged to 1,825 KT in FY25, primarily sourced from China, the Middle East, the US, and the UK.

The AAI noted that while advanced economies like the US and China impose strict tariffs and restrictions to protect their aluminium industries, India has become the largest importer of aluminium scrap globally. This trend undermines local producers, who are urging robust measures to enhance the domestic aluminium ecosystem.

With India’s aluminium demand projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, industry leaders emphasize the need for stronger policies to support local production and drive investments in capacity expansion. The anti-dumping duties on solar panel components, they say, are a vital first step in building a sustainable and competitive aluminium sector.

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