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ICRA Flags Margin Pressure Despite Steel Demand Growth

FY26 demand seen up 8 per cent, but prices to cap profitability

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Domestic steel demand in India is expected to grow by around 8 per cent in FY26, although softer steel prices are likely to keep profitability under pressure for producers, according to ICRA.

In a recent report, the rating agency projected the industry’s operating margin to remain largely flat at about 12.5 per cent in FY26, lower than its earlier expectation of an improvement. It noted that while demand growth remains healthy, incremental capacity additions have created a temporary surplus, resulting in continued pressure on steel prices.

“Although steel demand growth is projected at 8 per cent for FY26, additional supply has led to a near-term surplus, weighing on prices,” said Girishkumar Kadam, Senior Vice-President and Group Head, Corporate Sector Ratings, ICRA.

Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, which had risen to Rs 52,850 per tonne in April 2025 following the imposition of a safeguard duty, corrected to around Rs 46,000 per tonne in November and are currently trading below import parity. At a global level, structural headwinds in China have pushed its steel exports to an all-time high of 88 million tonnes in the first nine months of calendar year 2025, further weighing on international prices.

Chinese HRC export prices averaged about USD 465 per tonne during the first seven months of FY26, compared with USD 496 per tonne in the corresponding period a year earlier. While India’s finished steel imports have declined sharply by around 33 per cent year-on-year in the current financial year, ICRA stressed that the continuation of the safeguard duty remains critical to prevent a resurgence in imports.

Under its base-case scenario, the agency expects domestic HRC prices to average around Rs 50,500 per tonne in FY26. Operating profit per tonne of steel production is estimated at USD 108, marginally lower than the USD 110 per tonne recorded in FY25. The overall sector outlook has been maintained at ‘Stable’.

ICRA also highlighted execution and balance-sheet risks linked to the industry’s large capacity expansion plans. Domestic steel producers are targeting capacity additions of 80–85 million tonnes over FY26–31, involving investments of USD 45–50 billion. However, the agency cautioned that unless earnings improve meaningfully, such large-scale investments could lead to a sharp rise in industry leverage over the medium term.

On green steel, Kadam said its share in India’s total steel demand is expected to rise from about 2 per cent, or roughly 4 million tonnes, in FY30 to nearly 40 per cent, or around 150 million tonnes, by FY50. However, he added that the economics remain challenging, with widespread adoption unlikely until green hydrogen prices decline to around USD 1.5–1.6 per kg, a level not expected in the near to medium term.

Concrete

Lokesh Lays Stone For Rs 31 Billion Cement Unit In Kadapa

Line-2 expansion to make Kadapa a major cement hub

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Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

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Cement Prices to Stay Flat in Q2 FY27 as Costs Squeeze Margins

HDFC Securities warns monsoon slowdown and higher fuel costs

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HDFC Securities has said the cement industry is unlikely to register a sequential increase in prices in Q2 FY27 as monsoon-related demand moderation coincides with rising fuel and packaging costs that will squeeze margins. The brokerage observed that price gains remained modest, with increases of two to three per cent quarter-on-quarter across regions, and noted subdued offtake in May with improvement in June as a delayed monsoon supported construction activity. The brokerage added that modest pricing gains so far have been insufficient to offset the input cost escalation.

The report stated that input cost pressures intensified in Q1 FY27 owing to the West Asia conflict, which pushed up coal and pet coke prices and is expected to keep fuel costs elevated, with a likely peak in Q2 FY27. It assessed that total variable costs, including packing, could rise by around Rs 150 per t quarter-on-quarter and that lower offtake and seasonal operating deleverage could further raise operating expenditure by about Rs 50 per t quarter-on-quarter.

Overall, cement prices were estimated to remain flat in Q2 FY27 as monsoon-led demand weakness offsets limited upside in realisation, and rising fuel costs alongside seasonal deleverage were expected to compress industry margins by over Rs 100 per t quarter-on-quarter to below Rs 880 per t. The brokerage indicated that the combined impact of energy inflation and higher packing expenditure would be the principal drivers of margin contraction in the near term. HDFC Securities projected a recovery in margins in H2 FY27 should the West Asia turmoil subside and energy and packing costs cool off.

The brokerage expressed optimism on long-term demand fundamentals and said improving realisation together with an anticipated cost cool-off should support a margin rebound from H2 FY27 onward, underpinning favourable industry prospects over the medium term. Its outlook rests on monsoon normalisation and a decline in imported fuel prices in the second half of the fiscal year.

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Dalmia Bharat Begins Rs 31 Bn Green Cement Unit in Kadapa

New Andhra Pradesh plant to add 9.6 MTPA cement capacity by FY28

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Dalmia Bharat Limited recently laid the foundation stone for its second manufacturing unit at Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh. The company will invest Rs 31 billion in developing the next-generation integrated cement manufacturing facility.
The foundation-laying ceremony was attended by Nara Lokesh, Andhra Pradesh Minister for Information Technology, Electronics and Communications, Real-Time Governance and Human Resources Development, along with Puneet Dalmia, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Dalmia Bharat, senior government officials and company representatives.
Scheduled to be commissioned by the third quarter of FY28, the Kadapa unit will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated manufacturing facility in southern India. It will have a clinker production capacity of 6.1 million tonnes per annum and a cement manufacturing capacity of 9.6 million tonnes per annum.
The facility is designed to produce what the company describes as one of the world’s greenest cements. It is also expected to generate approximately 1,000 direct and indirect employment opportunities while supporting local MSMEs, transporters, contractors and service providers.
Lokesh said the investment reflected Dalmia Bharat’s confidence in Andhra Pradesh and aligned with the state’s objective of promoting sustainable industrialisation, job creation and technology-led economic growth.
Puneet Dalmia said the project represented the company’s long-term vision of developing low-carbon cement manufacturing assets. He added that the facility would establish new benchmarks in operational efficiency and sustainability while supporting India’s infrastructure and environmental goals.
Dalmia Bharat will also expand its regional community development programmes in education, healthcare, skill development and welfare through its DIKSHa and Gram Parivartan initiatives.
The company currently has an installed cement manufacturing capacity of 54.7 million tonnes across 19 manufacturing units in 12 states. It is also the first cement company globally to commit to the RE100, EP100 and EV100 initiatives.

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