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Core sectors output grew marginally by 0.1% in Jan 2021

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In January 2021, the eight core sectors output grew marginally by 0.1 per cent compared with 0.2 per cent in December 2020 and 2.2 per cent in the corresponding month last year. The growth in the last two months has been positive albeit anaemic and to some extent this reflects weakness in the physical production. There has been a broad based decline across all sectors except fertilisers, steel and electricity. The core sector output for December 2020 has been revised upwards from -1.25 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

The cumulative index of eight core sector during April-January 2021 registered a de-growth of 8.8 per cent on account of the nation-wide lockdown imposed in March which adversely impacted the industrial production compared with positive growth of 0.8 per cent in the corresponding period last year. All sectors except fertilisers contracted during this period. Double digit contraction was registered in natural gas, refinery, steel and cement.

Key highlights

Coal production contracted by 1.8 per cent registering de-growth for the first time in the last five months, primarily on account of a high base effect.

Crude oil production fell by 4.6 per cent in January 2021. Technical mishaps due to COVID-19 implications, reservoir issues and shut in of wells and delays in field development activities have led to the fall in production. Domestic production has been falling with the ageing of existing fields and muted response from the industry to take up new projects, mainly due to lack of adequate incentives. Moreover, higher import of crude oil and limitations on domestic exploration have weighed on the crude oil production.

Natural gas production contracted by 2 per cent in January 2021 mainly due to a fall in output of a major gas producer/explorer. Though it continued to remain in the negative territory there has been a sequential improvement in output compared with -7.2 per cent growth in the previous month.

Refinery production fell by 2.6 per cent in January 2021. Refinery production continued to remain in the negative territory for the 11th consecutive month. However, refinery capacity utilisation for the month was 105 per cent and it has been improving with each passing month indicating that the economy is slowly reflating and getting back to normalcy.

Fertilisers production registered a growth of 2.7 per cent in January 2021. Increase in fertilizer production can be ascribed to build-up of stocks by companies and increase in production of Complex fertilizers and DAP. The demand for these fertilizers is usually high during the rabi season.

Steel output grew by 2.6 per cent after contracting over November-December 2020. Higher automotive sales, robust demand from rural segment on the back of good monsoon and government spending on infrastructure has led to faster ramp up in production levels.

Cement output registered a de-growth of 5.9 per cent in January 2021. Slow pick up in institutional government projects is the key reason for this fall.

Electricity production grew by 5.1 per cent registering positive growth for the 5th consecutive month as a result of recovery in business sentiment and services.

CARE Ratings??view

Going ahead the growth in the eight core sectors will be conditional upon the pace of economic recovery and high base effect. However, there continues to be uncertainty over re-imposition of Covid-19 restrictions amid rising level of infections. The IIP growth for the month can be positive (but less than 1 per cent) contingent upon support by consumer oriented industries.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Akanksha Bhende, Associate Economist, CARE Ratings

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Limited. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis/inferences/views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

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Concrete

Cement Makers’ Margins To Fall Rs 50-75 Per Tonne Amid West Asia Conflict

Crisil Sees Margins Easing Despite Steady Demand

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Crisil said operating margins of Indian cement manufacturers are expected to decline by Rs 50-75 per tonne (t) this fiscal to Rs 925-950 per t due to higher input costs triggered by the West Asia conflict. The analysis covered 18 cement companies accounting for nearly 90 per cent of India’s domestic cement capacity and noted margins had improved sharply to around Rs 1,000 per t in fiscal 2026.

Crisil noted that the reduction would be driven mainly by higher power and fuel costs, which account for about 30 per cent of total costs, as petcoke and imported coal prices have surged amid geopolitical uncertainties. Freight costs, which account for about a quarter of total costs, are also expected to remain elevated because of higher diesel prices. The impact on profitability is likely to be more pronounced in the first half of the fiscal year before easing commodity prices moderate cost pressures later.

The rating agency said steady domestic demand and strong balance sheets should keep credit profiles stable despite the moderation in margins. Green energy currently accounts for 35-40 per cent of the sector’s total electricity consumption and is expected to partly cushion higher energy costs. Operating cash flows are likely to remain resilient, supported by projected 6-7 per cent growth in cement demand this fiscal.

Crisil highlighted that demand growth will be driven primarily by infrastructure spending, which meets about one-third of sector consumption, and by a nearly 18 per cent higher budgetary allocation for core ministries that should support project execution. Weaker rural housing demand amid pressure on agricultural incomes from a possible below-average monsoon may be offset by improved urban housing demand supported by favourable home-loan rates and a strong pipeline of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban projects. Ongoing capacity additions will keep capital expenditure elevated and may lift net debt to EBITDA to between 1.2 and 1.4 times from around 1.0 time last fiscal, though ratios are expected to remain healthy.

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Concrete

UltraTech Board Approves Rs 50 bn Fundraise Via NCDs

Company to issue half a million debentures for expansion plan

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UltraTech Cement’s board of directors has approved raising Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 bn) through non?convertible debentures issued in rupees.

The finance committee cleared a proposal to issue up to 500,000 fully paid, unsecured, listed, rated, redeemable, rupee?denominated, non?convertible, non?cumulative debentures of Rs 1 lakh each (Rs 0.1 mn each), aggregating to the Rs 5,000 crore programme.

As of June 2026 the firm reported net debt of Rs 15,875 crore (Rs 158.75 bn) and said its capacity expansion projects under execution are backed by capital expenditure of about Rs 17,000 crore (Rs 170 bn) over the next two to two?and?a?half years.

UltraTech spent Rs 9,500 crore (Rs 95 bn) on capital expenditure in financial year 2026 and in April the group crossed 200.1 mn tonnes per annum of domestic grey cement capacity and 205.5 mn tonnes per annum of global capacity.

The chief financial officer indicated the company would take consolidated capacity beyond 242 mn tonnes per annum, with grey cement capacity reaching 212.7 mn tonnes per annum by the end of financial year 2027. He noted the net debt?to?earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ratio stood at 0.87 times as of June 2026 and the company was confident of ending financial year 2027 with the ratio below one time.

In the first quarter of financial year 2026?27 UltraTech’s net profit attributable to owners rose 16.8 per cent year?on?year to Rs 2,599.3 crore (Rs 25.993 bn) and revenue from operations increased 15.9 per cent to Rs 24,648.20 crore (Rs 246.482 bn). The board approval is expected to complement internal cash flows as the company advances its expansion programme.

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Concrete

Lokesh Lays Stone For Rs 31 Billion Cement Unit In Kadapa

Line-2 expansion to make Kadapa a major cement hub

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Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

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