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Cement companies tide over demonetisation woes

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Cement companies have recovered from the shock of demonetisation much earlier than expected. Management commentary and results for the December-ended quarter show that the impact of demonetisation was not as severe as anticipated.

UltraTech Cement Ltd’s December-quarter results showed its volumes were marginally affected – domestic sales volumes declined 2 per cent at 11.01 million tonnes (MT), less than estimated by analysts.

ACC Ltd said that the slowdown seen after demonetisation has eased and that increased government allocation in the Union Budget for infrastructure development, housing, roads, and railways is expected to boost demand for the cement and concrete industry during 2017.

HM Bangur, Managing Director of Shree Cement Ltd said, ‘Sales have been definitely down and demand is lower by 10-11 per cent in the markets we operate in, which is both east and north India. In fact, it should be very positive in the next three months,’ adding that the sector typically grows 5-6 per cent every year. Shree Cement reported a rise in both standalone net profit and sales for the third quarter ended 31 December.

JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd said that despite the lowering of demand due to demonetisation, its production and sales grew 6 per cent and 4 per cent respectively in the quarter ended 31 December.

‘The housing sector had immediate impact, but the dealers were fast in adopting non-cash methods of payment. However, it may still take a few more months for things to fully stabilise,’ said Dr. Shailendra Chouksey, Whole-time Director, JK Lakshmi Cement. Chouksey said activity in the infrastructure sector has slowed due to migration of labourers and labour contractors, but the recovery in this segment will be faster than other sectors.

According to HDFC Securities Analyst Ankur Kulshrestha, the sector was initially expected to take a debilitating hit, but companies seem to have handled it well. ‘We expect companies in our coverage universe to register only 2.5 per cent de-growth in volumes, while realisations are expected to remain flat year-on-year,’ Kulshrestha wrote in a 10th January note to clients.

According to brokerage firm PhillipCapital, cement manufacturers in the southern states are expected to report high double-digit growth in the third quarter ended December 2016. However, companies selling in other markets are likely to report weak results, it said.

‘As per our dealers’ check, the north and central regions are most impacted due to demonetization, while the southern region is least impacted (because of fewer cash transactions in south India versus north/central),’ Karvy Stock Broking said in a January report.

The Indian cement industry is estimated to have a capacity of about 420 MT. ACC, Ambuja Cement Ltd, UltraTech and Dalmia Cement Ltd command about 40 per cent of the market. The majority of output – about 60 per cent – goes into housing, followed by the infrastructure and commercial sectors.

Centre gives a push to cement transport via waterways
In keeping with the objective of the government to make cargo movement on National Waterway 1 (NW-1) Ganga a regular feature, an Inland Waterways Authority of India (IWAI) vessel MV Zakir Hussain set sail from Haldia to Patna carrying 350 tonnes of cement consignment of Dalmia Bharat Cement on February 5, 2017.

Other cement majors like Shree Ultra, UltraTech, Jaypee, Ramco and ACC have also shown interest in transporting their cargo through NW-1, which is being developed under the Jal Marg Vikas Project with technical and financial assistance of the World Bank at an estimated cost of Rs 5,369 crore. The project will provide for commercial navigation of vessels with capacity of 1,500-2,000 tonnes.

‘Dalmia Bharat Cement has assured 1.20 lakh tonnes of cement to be transported from its plant at Salboni in East Midnapore district to various destinations on NW-1 in Jharkhand and Bihar,’ IWAI said. Phase-I of the project covers the Haldia-Varanasi stretch.

Inland waterways present a very cost-effective, environment-friendly and congestion-free mode of transport.

The project includes development of fairways and three multimodal terminals – in Varanasi, Haldia, and Sahibganj – strengthening of the river navigation system, conservancy works, modern River Information System (RIS), Digital Global Positioning System (DGPS), night navigation facilities, modern methods of channel marking and construction of a navigation lock at Farakka.

Entry of new players can depress cement prices
The entry and expansion of new cement players into larger markets is likely to increase competition. While new entrant Emami Cement Ltd will focus on Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, JSW Cement Ltd has aggressive expansion plans for the west and south regions. Meanwhile, Vadraj Cement Ltd, formerly called ABG Cement Ltd, will enter the western markets of Gujarat and Maharashtra. All three entrants will put pressure on prices and increase competition.

With Vadraj Cement and JSW Cement together adding a combined 6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by FY2020, capacity utilisation in the industry may remain around 80 per cent or below. ‘With virtually no change expected in pan-India utilisation levels in FY18 (versus FY17) and only modest improvement in FY19, we see little scope for margin-accretive cement price hikes. We believe the hikes, at best, will be to pass along cost pressures,’ said a Religare analyst. ‘Expansion of regional cement companies to other states will lead to increased price volatility. A month after Vadraj Cement announced its plans to set up a plant in Gujarat, cement prices in that market fell from about Rs 260 a unit to Rs 200, the analyst said.

FMCG major Emami group, unveiled its cement brand in October last year and said it was looking to scale up its cement production capacity from 4 MT to 15-20 MT in 3-5 years. The group has budgeted as much as Rs 9,000 crore for the proposed expansion and is also exploring opportunities for acquisitions.

Shree Cement from Rajasthan has stepped into the eastern market which has seen several new entrants, keeping prices depressed for the past year. Shree Cement is also planning to enter Karnataka in fiscal 2019 with a 4 mtpa plant. JSW Cement plans to increase its capacity five-fold from the current 6 mtpa to 30 mtpa by 2020. Last month, the company agreed to buy a controlling stake in Odisha-based Shiva Cement.

However, HM Bangur, Managing Director of Shree Cement, has a different view on the probable price fluctuations. ‘Cement demand in India is on the rise with about 6 per cent growth per year, compared with depressed demand in European markets. India will continuously need newer capacities for the next 20 years to meet the expanding demand. If the cement industry does not expand, there will be a shortage within a few years,’ Bangur said. ‘For example, cement demand in south India is more than 80 MT; an addition of 2-3 MT will not have any adverse impact as that much capacity will be absorbed in the natural course. I don’t see any price volatility.’

Source: LIVEMINT, DNA

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

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Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

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