Economy & Market
Budget Analysis
Published
10 years agoon
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Union Budget was presented in the parliament on February 29th, 2016. ICR team has tried to capture the impact of the budget on cement, infrastructure and real estate as viewed by CRISIL Research and various experts in the industry.
CRISIL Budget Analysis
Cement, impact positive
Higher spending on infrastructure to benefit in medium term Positive
Key budget proposals:
- Investment towards national highways increased by 49 per cent to Rs 1032 billion (budgetary plus internal and extra budgetary resources).
- Rs 170 billion for irrigation projects under Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Project.
- Outlay towards urban infrastructure increased 11 per cent to Rs 166 billion.
- Ready mix concrete manufactured at the site of construction exempted from excise duty.
- Clean energy cess on coal (domestic and imported) doubled to Rs 400 per tonne.
CRISIL Research?s View:
The government?s focus on infrastructure is evident with the total targeted spending in FY17 increasing 28 per cent over FY16.
This, along with a number of benefits provided on affordable housing, would aid recovery in cement demand. Further, the rise in duties and tariffs in the form of clean cess on coal is expected to have a muted impact on total cost, which is expected to increase 0.2 per cent. Power and fuel cost (~25 per cent of cost of sales) will increase 1 per cent. However, amid rising demand, players will be able to offset this with a hike in prices.
Infrastructure, impact positive
Focus on dispute redressal, tax clarifications to aid investor confidence Positive Key budget proposals:
Budgetary allocation: Total outlay for infrastructure has been increased by 28 per cent to Rs 3.4 trillion (roads, railways and power the biggest beneficiaries). Of this, Rs 1.29 trillion is on account of budgetary support
Roads: Investments for development of national highways is proposed to be hiked 49 per cent on-year to Rs 1032 billion.
This is on the backdrop of spending being 16 per cent lower than FY16 budgeted estimates in the segment
Railways: Total outlay raised by 24 per cent to Rs 1,210 billion. In Railway Budget FY17, there have been numerous announcements for improvement of port connectivity and three new dedicated freight corridors
Airports & ports: No new projects announced barring Rs 8 billion earmarked for greenfield ports and national waterways. Overall, outlay for civil aviation has been reduced by 30 per cent to Rs 44 billion, mainly in line with reduced equity support to Air India
Funding availability: The government has provided flexibility for select state entities to raise capital up to Rs 313 billion by way of bonds across infra segments
Other measures: Dividend distribution tax waiver to be applicable on income distributed from SPVs to INVIT holding entity. Furthermore, a mechanism to renegotiate of contracts and a public utility bill will be introduced to streamline resolution of disputes in infrastructure related construction contracts
CRISIL?s View
The Budget reiterated focus on roads and railways with almost 76 per cent of the incremental government spending (budgetary allocation plus inter and extra budgetary resources) focused on these two segments. Also, the increase in budgetary allocations of Rs 250 billion towards various infra segments were muted compared with Rs 1090 billion in the last Budget.
This clearly reinforces a shift in funding dependence from government outlays to cash flows of government entities and their borrowing capability to drive public investments in the sector.Of the Rs 250 billion incremental budgetary support, almost Rs 130 billion is directed towards railways, followed by Rs 40 billion towards power, Rs 30 billion for urban development and Rs 25 billion, for roads, respectively. Given the targets relating to electrification of villages, the Budget provides a thrust on investments in the distribution segment of power with a 84 per cent on-year increase in planned expenditure for key schemes.
For EXIM-focused sectors such as airports and ports, focus on single window customs clearance, backed by process simplification, is targeted towards de bottlenecking of capacity amid lower budgetary allocations.
The Budget continued to build up investor confidence for investing in infrastructure segments by providing clarity on dividend distribution tax for entities like INVITs and giving confirmation on contract renegotiation and introduction of the public disputes utility bill. This comes at a time when private sector interest in infrastructure development is low and the balance sheets of many developers in the sector remain stretched.
We believe the rise in overall government spends will boost execution of national highway projects to about 5,200 km annually in 2016-17 and create a robust construction opportunity for road and railway engineering procurement & construction companies.
While the Budget provisions are positive, it will continue to put to test the execution capability of implementing agencies such as the National Highways Authority of India and Indian Railways. This comes on the backdrop of overall spending in national highways being 16 per cent lower in FY16 as compared with the allocations. Addressing on-ground issues such as clearances and land acquisition becomes extremely critical to ensure a sharp increase in project execution.
Real Estate:
Affordable housing gets a shot in the arm; commercial realtors also benefit Positive
Key budget proposals:
-
Measures on affordable housing projects
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Interest deduction limit under Sec 80EE increased from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 1.5 lakh for first-time home buyers (applicable only on loans not exceeding Rs 35 lakh for houses costing below Rs 50 lakh and sanctioned during April 1, 2016, to March 31, 2017) for the entire loan duration
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Under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, 100 per cent deduction on profits from housing projects approved between June 2016 and March 2019, and completed in three years of getting approval and satisfying the following conditions, refer to Table 1
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Service tax exemption on construction of affordable houses up to 60 square meters (646 sq ft) under any central or state government scheme, including public-private partnerships (PPPs)
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Phasing out of deductions allowed on capital expenditure (other than land, goodwill and financial assets) under Sec 35AD from 150 per cent to 100 per cent w.e.f. April 1, 2017, for affordable housing projects
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Exemption of dividend distribution tax (DDT) on distribution made by special purpose vehicles (SPVs) to real estate investment trusts (REITs)
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Revival of national land record digitisation scheme with a funding of Rs 1.5 billion
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0.5 per cent Krishi Kalyan Cess on all taxable services
CRISIL Research?s View
Boost to affordable housing – especially tier II and tier III cities
Affordable housing segment has received a shot in the arm with the abovementioned measures and will see increased demand and PPPs in the medium term.
Increase in interest deduction for first-time home buyers will boost demand for homes priced in that bracket. Currently, nearly 40 per cent of the upcoming supply in the 10 major cities tracked by CRISIL Research is priced under Rs 50 lakh. The proportion of upcoming supply in this price bracket in tier II and tier III cities is expected to be even higher.
Refer to Graph 1
Table-1
| (sq mt) | 4 Metros | Other cities |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum size of house | 30 | 60 |
| Minimum size of land parcel | 1,000 | 2,000 |
| Other,Within 25 km of municipal limit |
However, the phasing out of deductions on capital expenditure will be a dampener to some extent.
Removal of DDT for SPVs distributing income to REITs is a positive for developers with significant exposure to rental-yielding real estate assets.
Digitisation of land records will aid transparency in the real estate sector and help tap foreign capital inflows in the medium to long term.
Krishi Kalyan Cess, applicable for under-construction projects, will hurt the industry marginally.
However, minimum alternate tax will apply.
Union Budget 2016-17 brings hopes of revival for the cement industry
?Rs 97,000 crore of outlay that has been kept for roads and infra by the finance minister is very promising and the industry will get a lot of benefits from this particular allocation of funds,? said Amandeep Gupta, joint CEO of OCL Cement, the flag ship company of Dalmia Group.
Middle and low income groups are benefitted by providing exemption on service tax on construction of affordable home and increase in tax exemption on home loan, a boost to first time home buyers. That makes housing more affordable. Infrastructure being part of the key pillars of the budget is something to look forward to in the long run. With 85% road projects coming back on track.
The industry has also acknowledged that the finance minister?s approach for this budget has been very targeted. ?He has laid a structure for an inclusive growth rather than distributing subsidies,? said Gupta.
The cement sector for quite some time had been asking for the removal of excise duty on ready-made cement, which was 12.5 per cent. The industry among its recommendations to the government has also been asking for the initiatives to lower the tax burden on the industry. In its annual report 2014-15, CMA acknowledged that cement is highly taxed at 60 per cent of ex-factory price, which is even more than the taxes levied on the luxury items.
?Exemption of excise duty on RMC is one of the encouraging moves taken by the finance minister. This step is another value addition in making the budget positive for the cement sector,? said MS Mani, senior director, Deloitte.
Source: ECONOMIC TIMES
Doubled Coal Cess to increase power tariff by 15 paisa/unit
The effort of the NDA government to give enhanced push to clean energy and environment conservation would lead to spiking of power price. The government for the third time in a row increased the cess on coal, lignite and pite production to Rs 400 per tonne to fund clean energy projects.
As the increase in price of coal comes under ?change of law? regulation of the Electricity Act and Tariff Policy, any change in price would be reflected in the final power tariff. As per industry calculations, this would amount to a change of 12-15 paisa per unit in the final power tariff.
Indian power industry consumes close to 500 million tonne of coal annually and with doubling of cess, close to 800 billion units of electricity will witness the impact of increased price of coal.
During the current fiscal, the coal cess collected was around Rs 12,000 crore taking the total to Rs 50,000 crore.
In the last Union Budget, cess on coal was doubled to Rs 200 per tonne. In his maiden budget in July 2014, Arun Jaitley increased it to Rs 100 per tonne from Rs 50 per tonne. The cess is collected as National Clean Energy Fund and is disbursed for renewable energy based initiatives and power projects.
But with the change in name to Clean Environment Fund, it is expected that the fund would be used for environment conservation drives of the government as well.
The heavy weight projects depending on NCEF for their funding are Rs 40,000 crore Green Energy Corridor project and to be launched National Wind Energy Mission, which will entail a total expenditure of Rs 18,000 crore.
Source: BUSINESS STANDARD
Steel, cement to cost more
Shailendra Chouksey, President, Cement Manufacturers? Association, and whole-time director, JK Lakshmi Cement, said cement prices would rise by? 3-4 a bag just on account of the clean environment cess.
?The total tax incidence on cement is over 60 per cent of the ex-factory realisation. The Krishi Kalyan Cess at 0.5 per cent on all taxable services from June 1 will push up production costs further,? he added.
Ready-mix woes
Ready-mix concrete (RMC) players believed that their long-pending demand of exemption of excise duty on RMC plants has finally been addressed but it is applicable only to dedicated RMC plants on site, the percentage of which is almost negligible, said Chouksey.
Ajay Kapur, Managing Director, Ambuja Cements, said while profitability of the cement industry would be impacted by the increase in cess, the excise on HDPE (high-density polyethylene) packaging bags (for 12.5 per cent to 15 per cent) and decrease in sale commission (from 10 per cent to 5 per cent) would add to the industry?s woes.
Source: THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Mahendra Singhi, Group CEO-Dalmia Cement in conversation with ICR
The focus of the budget has been on rural India and finance minister has thought ?how to boost up the economy?? Larger attention has been paid to the farm sector. FM?s efforts will have multiplying effect on the economy.
The second important aspect of the budget is allocation for infrastructure. Never before such allocation was done. There are many projects which have been held up and some remedial measures are required to be taken to rescue these projects. Funds have been made available for not just highways but also for ?Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana? which is mainly for rural India. The allocation for MNREGA is another positive feature of rural focus.
We were expecting industry status will be given to infrastructure but that did not happen. Irrigation has been provided separate funding which is a long term investment and it is certainly a welcome feature of the budget.
The enhancement of carbon cess to Rs. 400 will have some impact but it is a movement in the direction of Green Energy. It will support generation of Solar and Wind power.
While giving concessions, the budget takes into account affordable housing, rental housing and first time home buyers.The taxation on provident fund withdrawn is some how difficult to digest. It is slightly going against the principles of saving habits.
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Concrete
UltraTech Cement expands green logistics with 600+ electric truck fleet
Published
2 days agoon
September 3, 2026By
admin
The e-truck fleet will be used to transport five million MT of clinker and other key materials with potential of over 1,17,000 tonnes of net annual CO₂ reduction, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.
Mumbai
UltraTech Cement Limited, an Aditya Birla Group company and the world’s largest cement company by sales volume and capacity outside China, has announced that it will scale up its electric vehicle fleet in its logistics operations to 600+ EV trucks by December 2026.
UltraTech has signed service contracts with leading EV prime mover manufacturers including Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, IPLTech, Energy in Motion and Sany, along with their subsidiaries and other third-party logistics providers, to deploy EV trucks.
The total fleet of 600+ EV trucks will transport about five million MT of clinker and other key materials per annum across Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha. Once fully operational, this fleet of over 600 EV trucks will enable a net annual CO₂ reduction of more than 1,17,000 tonnes, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.
K C Jhanwar, Managing Director, UltraTech Cement Limited, said, “UltraTech is expanding sustainability beyond its plants by adopting greener logistics solutions. This large-scale transition to green logistics underscores our focus on decarbonising every link of our value chain and supports our commitment to achieving Net Zero.”
UltraTech has been a pioneer in advancing sustainable transport in the cement sector, being the first cement company to deploy heavy-duty electric trucks for long-haul transport of clinker and other materials at scale. The company was among the first in India to introduce green logistics, deploying CNG trucks in 2021 and electric trucks in 2024. UltraTech currently operates 850+ trucks as part of its green logistics operations, including CNG and electric trucks.
UltraTech, with a grey cement capacity of over 200 MTPA in India, operates one of the country’s most complex logistics networks. Its electrification strategy covers the entire supply chain—from mine-to-plant movement to inter-plant transport of clinker and other key materials.
The $ 10 billion UltraTech, the cement flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, has a total Grey Cement capacity of 205.5 MTPA and White Cement/Putty capacity of 3.2 MTPA. It is a signatory to the GCCA Climate Ambition 2050 and has committed to the Net Zero Concrete roadmap announced by GCCA.
In a research-backed article, Dr SB Hegde examines why carbon-adjusted profitability and LC3 will decide the next set of winners in cement manufacturing.
The Indian cement industry has achieved world-class operational efficiency through lower specific energy consumption, high plant utilisation and a reduced average clinker factor of approximately 67.5 per cent. These traditional measures of operational excellence remain essential. However, they are no longer sufficient. Carbon now carries a measurable financial cost under India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and under European carbon markets. Future leadership will be defined by carbon-adjusted profitability, the ability to generate strong returns while systematically lowering the carbon intensity of every ton sold.
Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) offers a practical, scalable pathway to achieve this dual objective. By replacing up to 50 per cent of clinker with calcined clay and limestone, LC3 can reduce CO2 emissions by 30–40 per cent while delivering comparable or superior durability performance.
This article examines the technical foundations of LC3, European industrial practices, the emerging Indian carbon market and a concrete roadmap for Indian companies to embed carbon-adjusted metrics and LC3 into daily operations, incentives and commercial strategy.
Limits of traditional operational excellence
For many years, plant performance has been judged primarily by five indicators: specific heat consumption, specific power consumption, kiln and mill utilisation, clinker factor and overall equipment effectiveness. These metrics drove continuous improvement and helped the industry reduce energy use and increase the share of blended cement. Three structural changes have rendered them incomplete as sole measures of success.
First, carbon now carries a real or opportunity cost. Plants that improve volume or lower cash cost while raising or stagnating emissions intensity create a hidden liability that will surface as CCTS trading matures and as green procurement expands.
Second, lower-carbon products such as LC3 and high-performance blended cements are creating differentiated market segments. Customers in infrastructure, real estate and export-oriented construction are beginning to specify embodied-carbon limits.
Third, investors and lenders increasingly treat carbon intensity as a financial risk factor. Traditional KPIs can mask the divergence between short-term cash profit and long-term carbon-adjusted value.
What is carbon-adjusted profitability?
Carbon-adjusted profitability evaluates normal profit after explicit adjustment for carbon performance. A practical expression is:
Carbon-Adjusted EBITDA = Conventional EBITDA – Carbon Cost + Green Premium Income
Carbon cost may be an internal carbon price, the actual cost of purchasing Carbon Credit Certificates under CCTS, or the opportunity cost of high emissions relative to peers. Green premium income arises when customers pay more for verified lower-carbon cement or when the company sells surplus credits. Tracking both conventional and carbon-adjusted profit side-by-side gives management a clearer picture of value creation under evolving market rules.
Table 1. Traditional KPIs versus Carbon-Adjusted Leadership Metrics
Traditional Focus New Leadership Metric Why It Matters
Specific energy consumption Emissions intensity (kg CO2/t cement) Directly linked to future CCTS and CBAM costs
Kiln utilisation Carbon-adjusted contribution margin Reveals true value of incremental volume
Clinker factor Share of lower-carbon products sold (incl. LC3) Measures commercial success of the transition
Power cost per tonne Effective carbon cost per tonne sold Expose hidden liabilities
Absolute EBITDA Carbon-adjusted EBITDA + green premium Aligning profit with future market reality
LC3: Technical foundations and performance advantages
LC3 is a ternary blended cement that typically combines approximately 50 per cent clinker, 30 per cent calcined clay, 15 per cent limestone and 5 per cent gypsum (the classic LC3-50 formulation). The decisive technical advantage is that clay is calcined at 700–850 °C, far below the 1,450 °C required for clinker production. This lower temperature, together with the substantial reduction in clinker content, delivers CO2 reductions of 30–40 per cent relative to ordinary Portland cement (OPC).
Chemistry is synergistic. Calcined kaolinitic clay (metakaolin) reacts with calcium hydroxide from clinker hydration and with limestone to form additional C-A-S-H gel and carboaluminate phases. These phases densify the microstructure, reduce porosity and improve durability.
Field experience shows superior resistance to chloride ingress, sulphate attack and alkali–silica reaction. Early-age strength can match OPC with high-reactivity clays; later-age strengths routinely meet 42.5 and 52.5 grade requirements.
Importantly, LC3 does not require high-purity kaolin. Clays with 40 per cent or even lower kaolinite content can be activated successfully, expanding raw-material availability across India. Calcination can use adapted rotary kilns or dedicated flash calciners, making the technology compatible with existing plant infrastructure and far less capital-intensive than carbon capture.
Economic analyses show that LC3 can be produced at equal or lower cost than OPC in many locations because of reduced energy demand and cheaper clay. Life-cycle assessments consistently report 30–40 per cent lower embodied CO2 per tonne of cement.
Table 2. Comparative profile: OPC versus LC3-50
Parameter OPC LC3-50
Typical clinker content ~95 per cent ~50 per cent
CO2 emissions (relative) Baseline (≈0.85 t CO2/t cement process + fuel) 30–40 per cent lower
Clay calcination temperature Not applicable 700–850 °C
Key hydration products C-S-H, portlandite, ettringite C-A-S-H + carboaluminates
Chloride & sulphate resistance Good Superior
Production cost potential Baseline Equal or lower in most locations
Infrastructure compatibility Existing High (minor adaptations)
In India, commercial adoption has begun in earnest. JK Cement commenced the first commercial production of LC3 in the Indian subcontinent at its Mangrol plant in Rajasthan in 2025 under BIS standard IS 18189.
By early 2026, approximately 2,000 tonnes had been produced and sold, avoiding an estimated 500 tonnes of CO2. JK Lakshmi Cement followed with commercial launch of its Green PRO LC3 grade from the Jaykaypuram plant. As of mid-2026, two producers are supplying LC3 to the market. The first large-scale infrastructure application is the Noida International Airport (Jewar), where LC3 was used in the runway and a building complex, demonstrating full constructability and performance under demanding conditions. These early volumes are still small relative to national cement demand, but they mark the critical transition from pilot to commercial reality. Companies that scale capacity now will be positioned to capture both CCTS credits and emerging green-procurement demand.
Why the shift is accelerating
According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, direct carbon pricing now covers nearly 30 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions and generated more than US$107 billion in public revenue in 2025. The average global carbon price stands at approximately US$21 per tonne, although regional prices vary widely.
In Europe, the EU ETS price has traded near €80–85 per tonen in mid-2026. Free allocation for cement is being withdrawn in parallel with CBAM. European producers therefore face a clear signal: every tonne of avoided CO2 improves both compliance and competitiveness. Holcim has scaled calcined-clay production, including Europe’s first dedicated line at Saint-Pierre-la-Cour (France) and a second line in the Czech Republic (2026). Heidelberg Materials, Cementir (FUTURECEM) and others have commercialised low-clinker calcined-clay blends across multiple markets, showing that carbon-adjusted profitability is already reshaping capital allocation in the world’s most mature carbon market.India’s CCTS is now operational. Binding emission intensity targets apply to 186 cement facilities for FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27. Average required reductions for integrated plants are modest (around 2.7 per cent by FY 2027), yet the direction is clear.
Trading of Carbon Credit Certificates is expected in the second half of 2026, with early prices likely in the `800–1,500 per tonne range. Plants that outperform targets can sell credits; those that underperform must buy them or face compensation. Cement is well positioned to be a net supplier of credits if clinker factor continues to fall through LC3 and other low-clinker systems.
Way forward for India
India starts from a strong baseline, world-class energy efficiency and a clinker factor already lower than the global average. The next competitive frontier is the deliberate reduction of process emissions through clinker substitution at scale. LC3 is uniquely suited to Indian conditions because suitable clays are widely distributed, the technology fits existing kiln and grinding infrastructure, and the resulting product can meet the performance demands of both infrastructure and building construction.
A practical national pathway contains five interlocking elements:
- Standards and acceptance: Accelerated finalisation and promotion of BIS specifications for calcined-clay and limestone–calcined-clay cements will remove a key barrier to commercial uptake. Alignment with European practice (EN 197-5) can facilitate knowledge transfer and export readiness.
- Supply-chain development: Investment in flash calcination capacity and systematic characterisation of regional clay deposits will secure reliable, low-cost feedstock. Existing rotary kilns can be adapted for initial volumes while dedicated calciners are built.
- Incentive alignment: Part of variable compensation for plant managers, sales teams and senior leadership should be linked to emissions intensity reduction and to the volume of lower-carbon products (including LC3) sold. Without this link, traditional volume and cost targets will continue to dominate behaviour.
- Product-level carbon accounting: Reliable measurement of emissions intensity at the individual cement grade level, supported by third-party verification where required, is essential for both CCTS compliance and credible green claims.
- Demand-side pull: Green public procurement policies that specify maximum embodied-carbon thresholds for major infrastructure projects will create a predictable market for LC3 and other low-carbon cements, accelerating scale and cost reduction.
Companies that treat LC3 as a strategic product line rather than a niche offering will be better positioned to generate surplus Carbon Credit Certificates, capture any emerging green premium, and protect margins as carbon costs rise.
Organisational changes required
Technical capability alone is insufficient. Three organisational shifts are required.
Daily management: Emissions intensity must appear on the same daily and monthly dashboards as heat consumption, power consumption and utilization. Plant reviews should examine both conventional and carbon-adjusted results.
Incentives: A meaningful portion of bonuses for plant heads, technical teams and sales leadership should be tied to lower emissions intensity and successful commercialisation of LC3 and other low-carbon grades.
Commercial approach: Sales teams need clear volume and pricing targets for lower-carbon products, supported by technical service that helps customers specify and place the material correctly. Without commercial pull, excellent technical performance remains under-utilised.
Table 3. Three-stage roadmap to carbon-adjusted profitability
Time Horizon Priority Actions Expected Outcome
Next 12 months Add emissions intensity to plant dashboards; establish internal carbon price; initiate LC3 pilot production and customer trials Visibility and early organisational learning
12–24 months Revise incentive systems; scale LC3 and other low-carbon grades to key accounts; secure third-party verification capability People and sales aligned with carbon goals
24–36 months Embed carbon-adjusted metrics in board reporting and capital allocation; expand calcined-clay capacity Full system integration and competitive advantage
Questions senior leaders should ask
Boards can accelerate the transition by insisting on answers to a short list of questions:
• Is our carbon-adjusted profit improving, stable or declining relative to conventional EBITDA?
• Did recent volume growth improve or worsen our emissions intensity?
• What share of sales already comes from lower-carbon products, including LC3, and what is the trajectory?
• How exposed is our capital expenditure plan to rising carbon costs under CCTS and potential CBAM-related requirements?
• Do our incentive systems still reward only volume and cost, or have they been updated to include carbon performance?
Treating carbon with the same seriousness as energy cost or kiln utilization does not diminish operational excellence; it expands the definition of excellence to match the new competitive reality.
Looking ahead
By 2030 the gap between leading and lagging cement companies will not be decided by who records the lowest specific heat consumption. It will be decided by who delivers the strongest carbon-adjusted profits.
Absolute emissions may still rise as national production grows. That is not the issue. Companies that reduce intensity year after year and successfully sell cleaner products will pull ahead in both domestic and export markets. Those that do not will fall behind, even if their traditional efficiency numbers look strong.
Operational excellence built the Indian cement industry. It remains the foundation. It is no longer the complete picture. Carbon-adjusted profitability is the clearer measure of success.
LC3 is not a distant technology. It is available now. It cuts CO3 by 30–40 per cent, works with existing plants, and is already in commercial production in India. Companies that treat it as a strategic product, not a pilot, will protect their margins and generate tradable credits.
Leaders who act now will place carbon metrics on daily dashboards, link incentives to intensity reduction and LC3 sales, invest in calcined-clay capacity, and build commercial capability to sell lower-carbon products. They will shape the next chapter of the industry.
References
- World Bank. (2026). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
- International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP). (2026). India Carbon Credit Trading Scheme – Status and Coverage. Berlin: ICAP.
- Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change / Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025). Greenhouse Gases Emission Intensity Target Rules, 2025. New Delhi: Government of India.
- Scrivener, K., Martirena, F., Bishnoi, S., & Maity, S. (2018). Calcined clay limestone cements (LC3). Cement and Concrete Research, 114, 49–56.
- RMI. (2024). The Business Case for LC3. Rocky Mountain Institute.
- European Commission. (2026). EU Emissions Trading System – Allowance Price Data and Free Allocation Phase-out Schedule. Brussels.
- Holcim. (2025–2026). Scaling Calcined Clay for Sustainable Building – Corporate Updates on European and Latin American Capacity. Zurich: Holcim Ltd.
- LC3 Project / EPFL. (2026). LC3 – A Guide to Best Practices for Scalable, Affordable and Sustainable Low-Carbon Building. Lausanne: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
- Business Today / Industry Reports. (2026). First Large-Scale LC3 Application at Noida International Airport, Jewar. New Delhi.
- NITI Aayog / Industry Analyses. (2026). Roadmap and Baseline Performance Indicators for the Indian Cement Sector. New Delhi.
- Springer / Innovative Infrastructure Solutions. (2026). LC3 Systems: A Review of Chemistry, Performance, Durability and Sustainability toward Market Adoption.
- Cementir Holding / Industry Sources. (2025–2026). FUTURECEM and Related Low-Clinker Technologies in Europe.
- Climate Risk Horizons & Independent Analyses. (2026). Assessment of Emission Intensity Targets under India’s CCTS for Cement and Other Hard-to-Abate Sectors.
- GCCA / TERI. (Various years). Decarbonization Roadmaps for the Indian Cement Industry.
- EN 197-5:2021. Cement – Part 5: Portland-composite cement CEM II/C-M and Composite cement CEM VI. European Committee for Standardization.
Concrete
More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe
Published
1 week agoon
August 28, 2026By
admin
Dijam Panigrahi makes a counterintuitive but data-backed argument that routing every sensor alert through human approval does not make cement plants safer.
India’s cement industry has spent the last two years wiring kilns, mills and coolers with sensors and automated control systems, and the safety case for doing so is strong on paper. Contract workers still make up the majority of the industry’s workforce, and fatal accidents remain a recurring problem. The Indian National Cement Workers Federation has noted that around 83 per cent of workers in the sector hold precarious positions, a fact that resurfaced after an oxygen cylinder explosion killed three contract workers at a plant in Chhattisgarh.
Industry tallies compiled by IndustriALL found cement plants recorded at least seventeen accidents in one year with 21 workers killed, and ten accidents the following year with nine killed, most of them contract staff. Automated monitoring, in theory, closes that gap. A sensor never gets complacent and never skips a check because a shift is short staffed.
However, plants that respond by routing every anomaly reading to a person for approval are quietly building a system that fails the same way understaffing does. When operators receive dozens of flagged deviations a shift, most of them minor, they learn a simple lesson: the fastest way through the queue is to approve without reading closely. The safety benefit disappears, not because the technology failed, but because the humans supervising it adapted to the volume.
Why alerts get ignored
A study cited by manufacturing technology publisher Applied SmartFactory found more than 95 per cent of alarms in a semiconductor fab were low priority, and only about 4 per cent ever triggered an action, with just 100 out of 5,000 alarms accounting for 70 per cent of all alarm activity. The mechanism is the same whether the trigger is a vibration sensor or an AI model flagging a kiln temperature swing. Once the ratio of noise to signal crosses a threshold, workers stop treating the system as a decision aid and start treating it as a formality to clear.
The scale of AI deployment underway makes this more than a theoretical risk. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index Report found organisational adoption of AI has reached 88 per cent, even as documented AI incidents rose to 362 in 2025, up sharply from 233 the year before, according to analysis of the report. The Index also found only about a third of organisations have adopted a formal governance framework, with NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework cited by 33 per cent and ISO/IEC 42001 cited by 36 per cent.
Most manufacturers are deploying monitoring systems faster than they are building the judgment for when a flagged event actually needs a person’s attention. In India, plants run by JK Cement have begun pairing CCTV feeds with AI to define safe zones around heavy machinery, a promising direction that still depends on operators trusting and reading the alerts the system generates.
A three-tier model for cement plant
The fix is not less monitoring or more monitoring. It is classifying decisions by risk and by novelty, rather than treating human oversight as a single switch that is either on or off. A workable model sorts factory floor events into three tiers.
The first tier, proceed, covers deviations the plant has seen before that fall within known safe bounds, such as a kiln feed rate adjustment within an established range. These should run without a stop for approval, because routing them to a person only trains that person to click through.
The second tier, pause, covers events that are unusual but not yet dangerous, such as a vibration reading trending toward a limit or a fuel blend shifting outside its typical mix. These warrant a brief human check before the system proceeds, giving an operator the chance to apply judgment the model does not yet have.
The third tier, escalate, covers events that are both high risk and unfamiliar, such as a pressure reading combined with a temperature spike that has no close precedent in the plant’s history. These should stop the process entirely and require a decision from someone with the authority to shut down a line.
Who should set the threshold
Where these tiers get drawn matters as much as the framework itself. Threshold setting is frequently handed to the vendor supplying the monitoring software or to a plant’s IT department, both of which understand the technology but not the specific tolerances of a given kiln, mill or line. Operations staff, who know that a particular grinding unit runs hotter under monsoon humidity or that a calciner behaves differently after a refractory reline, are better positioned to calibrate what counts as routine on their own equipment.
Handing threshold ownership to operations does not remove IT or vendors from the process, but it puts the calibration decision closest to the people who live with its consequences on the floor.
Signals that oversight is actually working
A few concrete indicators reveal whether a monitoring setup is functioning as intended or simply providing the appearance of safety. The escalation rate over time is the first: a rate that stays flat or climbs slowly as operations mature is healthy, while one that spikes and then falls sharply often means operators have started overriding the system rather than engaging with it. Time to resolution is the second: escalations that take progressively longer to close suggest fatigue or confusion about ownership, not diligence. The third, and most telling, is how accurate the system’s own uncertainty estimates turn out to be, meaning whether events flagged as high risk actually correlated with real incidents, and whether events waved through stayed incident free. A system whose escalations do not track with actual outcomes trains operators toward the same complacency that unmonitored equipment produces.
None of this argues against automation in Indian cement manufacturing, where a labor structure built on contract work and a track record of serious accidents make better monitoring an urgent need. It argues for treating human oversight as a design problem with three distinct settings, rather than a single
dial turned up whenever a plant wants to look safer on paper.
About the author:
Dijam Panigrahi, Co-founder and COO, GridRaster, is a spatial computing platform for industrial enterprises and manufacturers.
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More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe
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