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Cement Sector Growth Slows Down

Muted demand lowers FY25 growth forecast

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The Indian cement industry’s growth forecast for FY25 has been revised down to 4-5% (445-450 MT), primarily due to sluggish construction activity in the housing and infrastructure sectors, according to ICRA. The initial estimate in July was 7-8%, expecting demand to rise in H2, but a slower-than-expected post-election recovery has affected projections.

Key Drivers and Challenges

Muted Volumes: Cement volumes grew just 2% YoY to 212 MT in H1 FY25, impacted by election-related slowdowns and heavy monsoon rains.
Rural Demand: A robust rabi season backed by healthy monsoons and strong farm cash flows is expected to improve rural housing demand in H2.
Urban and Infrastructure Boost: Urban housing demand remains strong, while increased government capital spending in H2 FY25 (from ?4 lakh crore in H1 to meet a full-year target of ?11.1 lakh crore) should spur infrastructure activity and cement demand.
Pricing and Margins

Cement prices fell 10% YoY to ?330 per bag in H1 FY25 due to oversupply and subdued demand, affecting revenue realisation.
Operating profit margins dropped to 12% in Q2 FY25, a 375 bps decline YoY, despite reduced coal and pet coke costs (down 38% and 13% YoY, respectively).
Capacity Expansion

The industry is expected to add 70-75 MT capacity during FY25-26, with 33-37 MT as clinker capacity.
Regional Growth: Eastern and southern regions will lead capacity additions, contributing 38-40 MT evenly split over two years.
Utilisation: Capacity utilisation is projected to rise slightly to 71% in FY25 from 70% in FY24.
Outlook
The cement sector is poised for a recovery in H2 FY25, driven by rural and urban housing demand and higher government spending. However, pricing pressures and oversupply remain challenges. Total installed capacity stands at 690 MT, with moderate utilisation rates indicating room for demand-driven growth.

Concrete

Jefferies’ Optimism Fuels Cement Stock Rally

The industry is aiming price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

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Cement stocks surged over 5% on Monday, driven by Jefferies’ positive outlook on demand recovery, supported by increased government capital expenditure and favourable price trends.

JK Cement led the rally with a 5.3% jump, while UltraTech Cement rose 3.82%, making it the top performer on the Nifty 50. Dalmia Bharat and Grasim Industries gained over 3% each, with Shree Cement and Ambuja Cement adding 2.77% and 1.32%, respectively.

“Cement stocks have been consolidating without significant upward movement for over a year,” noted Vikas Jain, head of research at Reliance Securities. “The Jefferies report with positive price feedback prompted a revaluation of these stocks today.”

According to Jefferies, cement prices were stable in November, with earlier declines bottoming out. The industry is now targeting price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

The brokerage highlighted moderate demand growth in October and November, with recovery expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, supported by a revival in government infrastructure spending.
Analysts are optimistic about a stronger recovery in the latter half of FY25, driven by anticipated increases in government investments in infrastructure projects.
(ET)

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Concrete

Steel Ministry Proposes 25% Safeguard Duty on Steel Imports

The duty aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports.

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The Ministry of Steel has proposed a 25% safeguard duty on certain steel imports to address concerns raised by domestic producers. The proposal emerged during a meeting between Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi, attended by senior officials and executives from leading steel companies like SAIL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and AMNS India.

Following the meeting, Goyal highlighted on X the importance of steel and metallurgical coke industries in India’s development, emphasising discussions on boosting production, improving quality, and enhancing global competitiveness. Kumaraswamy echoed the sentiment, pledging collaboration between ministries to create a business-friendly environment for domestic steelmakers.

The safeguard duty proposal aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports, particularly from free trade agreement (FTA) nations. Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik noted that 62% of steel imports currently enter at zero duty under FTAs, with imports rising to 5.51 million tonnes (MT) during April-September 2024-25, compared to 3.66 MT in the same period last year. Imports from China surged significantly, reaching 1.85 MT, up from 1.02 MT a year ago.

Industry experts, including think tank GTRI, have raised concerns about FTAs, highlighting cases where foreign producers partner with Indian firms to re-import steel at concessional rates. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava also pointed to challenges like port delays and regulatory hurdles, which strain over 10,000 steel user units in India.

The government’s proposal reflects its commitment to supporting the domestic steel industry while addressing trade imbalances and promoting a self-reliant manufacturing sector.

(ET)

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India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Panel Aluminium Frames

Move boosts domestic aluminium industry, curbs low-cost imports

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The Indian government has introduced anti-dumping duties on anodized aluminium frames for solar panels and modules imported from China, a move hailed by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) as a significant step toward fostering a self-reliant aluminium sector.

The duties, effective for five years, aim to counter the influx of low-cost imports that have hindered domestic manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Finance, Chinese dumping has limited India’s ability to develop local production capabilities.

Ahead of Budget 2025, the aluminium industry has urged the government to introduce stronger trade protections. Key demands include raising import duties on primary and downstream aluminium products from 7.5% to 10% and imposing a uniform 7.5% duty on aluminium scrap to curb the influx of low-quality imports.

India’s heavy reliance on aluminium imports, which now account for 54% of the country’s demand, has resulted in an annual foreign exchange outflow of Rupees 562.91 billion. Scrap imports, doubling over the last decade, have surged to 1,825 KT in FY25, primarily sourced from China, the Middle East, the US, and the UK.

The AAI noted that while advanced economies like the US and China impose strict tariffs and restrictions to protect their aluminium industries, India has become the largest importer of aluminium scrap globally. This trend undermines local producers, who are urging robust measures to enhance the domestic aluminium ecosystem.

With India’s aluminium demand projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, industry leaders emphasize the need for stronger policies to support local production and drive investments in capacity expansion. The anti-dumping duties on solar panel components, they say, are a vital first step in building a sustainable and competitive aluminium sector.

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