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Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide

The report highlights a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8%

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India’s steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.
As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry’s long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.
Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.
“We estimate India’s steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average” said the report.
The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.
The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.
The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.
“Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth” added the report.
India’s steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India’s iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.
The future expansion of India’s steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry’s reliance on exports.
Over the past few years, India’s steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China’s 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world’s 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.
“We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally” the report noted.

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India’s Steel Imports Drop 34 Per Cent, Exports Jump 25 Per Cent In April–October

Domestic output stays strong despite market softness

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India’s finished steel imports fell 34.1 per cent year-on-year to 2.5 million tonnes in the first seven months of the financial year, government data shows. Despite this decline, the country — the world’s second-largest crude steel producer — remained a net importer of finished steel between April and October. The fall in imports occurred alongside a 7.4 per cent rise in domestic consumption, which reached 92.2 million tonnes.

South Korea was the biggest supplier during the period, exporting 1.4 million tonnes of finished steel to India. It was followed by China, Japan and Russia. Although overall imports fell, the figures underline the steady inflow of foreign steel into the Indian market.

Domestic production remained firm. India produced 91.6 million tonnes of finished steel in April–October, while crude steel output stood at 95.7 million tonnes, highlighting the resilience and scale of the sector despite import competition.

In contrast to the import trend, India’s finished steel exports rose sharply by 25.3 per cent year-on-year to 3.5 million tonnes. Italy and Belgium were the biggest European buyers, followed by Spain, reflecting strong international demand for Indian steel in select markets.

The government report noted that domestic steel prices were under pressure due to subdued demand and high supply. Trading activity also slowed during the festive season, adding strain on smaller steel producers.

The combined trend of lower imports, higher exports and rising domestic consumption presents a mixed picture for the steel industry, which is managing both domestic market softness and shifting global trade dynamics.

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Stainless Academy To Train 5 Lakh MSMEs By 2030

Initiative to boost skills and strengthen stainless steel sector.

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Stainless Academy, aligned with national programmes such as Make in India and Skill India, has announced plans to reach more than 5 lakh Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) across the country. The initiative aims to equip students, young professionals and MSMEs, including fabricators, with category awareness and future-ready skills to strengthen the value chain and drive sustainable industrial growth.

Since its launch, Stainless Academy has trained over 60,000 MSME fabricators, educated around 9,000 students across engineering and polytechnic colleges through specialised programmes, and conducted multiple industry sessions to support sectoral development. The academy is associated with Jindal Stainless, India’s largest stainless steel producer.

“In our pursuit of an Atmanirbhar Bharat, building human capital is paramount. The Stainless Academy is our commitment to shaping that future by fostering knowledge, skill and excellence across the value chain. Our goal is not only to prepare a competent workforce but to build an ecosystem that drives India’s industrial growth on the global stage,” said Abhyuday Jindal, Managing Director of Jindal Stainless.

The academy collaborates with leading academic institutions such as IITs, NITs and polytechnic colleges to offer specialised courses, ensuring a future-ready talent pipeline and a smoother student transition into the workforce. A recent example is the company’s MoU with Gati Shakti Vishwavidyalaya, Vadodara, for advanced research, teaching and training in stainless steel applications, under which classes began earlier this month.

The programme intends to train over 5 lakh MSMEs by 2030, expanding across major stainless steel clusters in Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and West Bengal. By engaging both urban and rural communities, it ensures equitable access to modern skill development. Through its flagship Fabricator Training Programmes, the academy offers grassroots training in fabrication techniques, design and quality standards. Additional downstream industry programmes help enhance workforce capabilities through workshops and classroom-based learning.

“The Stainless Academy aims to nurture a culture of continuous learning and upskilling that keeps pace with new technologies, processes and possibilities. It is not just about training today’s workforce but preparing tomorrow’s,” said Vijay Sharma, Director, Corporate Affairs at Jindal Stainless.

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Minister Outlines Major Expansion Plan For Rourkela Steel Plant

RSP to see major capacity boost and modernisation drive.

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Union Minister for Steel and Heavy Industries H.D. Kumaraswamy, during a key visit to the Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP), highlighted its vital role in India’s industrial progress and announced an extensive expansion and modernisation roadmap. Calling RSP a pillar of India’s steel sector, he described his visit to the country’s first public sector integrated steel plant as a “proud moment”. He noted that for over six decades, the plant had not only operated but thrived, emerging as a major force in the domestic steel industry.

The Minister commended the commitment and performance of the RSP workforce, praising improvements in production, productivity and techno-economics. During his visit, he inaugurated the new 1 MTPA Slab Caster at Steel Melting Shop-2, built with a capital expenditure of Rs 11 billion, and reviewed progress at the Coke Oven Battery 7 and the upcoming Pellet Plant.

Emphasising strong raw material growth, he noted that the Odisha Group of Mines had increased production by over 5 per cent this year and was on track to exceed nearly 15 million tonnes in FY 2025–26, reinforcing raw material security for RSP.

Outlining the future growth strategy, the Minister announced plans to double RSP’s capacity with an investment of about Rs 300 billion. He also confirmed a separate modernisation programme of Rs 90 billion, aimed at ensuring the plant remains globally competitive and future-ready. He added that the Ministry was closely coordinating with the Odisha Government to ensure smooth and efficient progress of the expansion efforts.

Discussing wider regional benefits, Shri Kumaraswamy stressed the socioeconomic gains the project would generate, including employment opportunities for local youth, greater avenues for MSMEs and broader community development. He said the expanded capacity would position RSP as a leading producer of high-quality and special steel.

Aligning the expansion with national objectives, he referred to the National Steel Policy under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, which targets raising India’s steel capacity to 300 million tonnes by 2030–31. Reducing import dependence and boosting specialty steel through the PLI Scheme, he said, were essential parts of this mission.

Reaffirming his confidence in the region’s industrial trajectory, he concluded that Rourkela was poised to become one of India’s premier steel hubs, with progress at RSP set to benefit the city, the state and the nation.

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