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Cement demand FY22 could surpass 340 mt: ICRA

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Domestic cement demand is expected to be highest in the decade, estimated to surpass 340 million tonne in FY2022, driven by sustained rural housing demand and significant pick-up in infrastructure activity.

On the supply side, the capacity addition is also expected to increase by 22-25 million tonne in FY2022.

As per an Icra note, while the cement prices are expected to largely sustain at the recently increased levels supported by the improved demand, the higher input costs are likely to exert pressure on operating margins during the fiscal.

Though this is likely to result in some moderation in debt coverage metrics, they are likely to remain at healthy levels.

??he sentiment in the rural areas is expected to be positive on the back of favourable kharif harvest, rise in rabi sowing, reasonably healthy reservoir levels in many regions during January ??February 2021 compared to average storage of last 10 years (with an early rise in temperatures, the upcoming monsoon will be crucial), favourable trends in procurement combined with a modest MSP (minimum support price) hike. This is expected to generate a healthy increase in the cash flows for the farm sector,??Rajeshwar Burla, vice president and co-group head at Icra was quoted as saying.

Alongside, continued focus on agriculture and rural development in the Union Budget of 2021-2022 is expected to boost rural housing demand. Meanwhile, the Union Budget has also increased the capital outlay for infrastructure sector.

The gross budgetary support towards capital expenditure has been increased significantly to Rs 5.54 lakh crore in 2021-22 up 34 percent from 2020-21 budget expectation, and 26 percent from 2020-21 revised estimate with higher allocation towards the infrastructure sector (roads, railways, metros, ports etc).

The pick-up in the construction activity in infrastructure segment will also support the cement demand, said Icra. On the supply side, capacity additions are expected to be in the range of 15-17 million tonne in FY2021 as against the earlier estimates of around 20 million tonne owing to the Covid-19 pandemic when demand is adversely impacted, and the companies preserved liquidity.

The capex is likely to get back to around 22-25 million tonne in FY2022 and FY2023. The addition in eastern India is expected to lead the expansion and is expected to add around 20 million tonne followed by the central region at around 13 million tonne during FY2022-FY2023.

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Concrete

Cement Prices To Hold Steady Amid Monsoon Slump

Centrum report says demand weakness will limit hikes

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Centrum, a financial services firm, has reported that cement prices are likely to remain largely unchanged in July as weak demand during the monsoon season constrains pricing power. The report noted that construction activity remained subdued in the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 owing to labour shortages and slower execution of government projects. While June showed some volume recovery driven by delayed monsoons and quarter end sales, dealers are cautious about sustaining any price increases.

The analysis suggested that seasonal slowdown related to monsoon will prolong demand and pricing challenges through the second quarter. Dealers saw most recent attempts at price hikes as protective measures rather than genuine shifts in market fundamentals. They signalled that pockets of demand in select regions could prompt isolated adjustments but that broad based increases were unlikely while construction activity remained weak. Market participants therefore expected a cautious stance on pricing.

The report highlighted that despite intermittent recovery in shipments during June, the underlying demand trajectory remained muted as monsoon hampered site level activity and logistics. Commercial builders and retail dealers both reported constrained order books and slower payment cycles, which in turn reduced room for margin expansion among manufacturers. Analysts noted that unless government project execution accelerates markedly, demand improvement would be gradual. Price setters were thus likely to focus on protecting market shares rather than pursuing aggressive increases.

Market watchers said the near term outlook would be shaped by monsoon progress and fiscal spending patterns, with any acceleration in public works offering the most tangible support. Traders expected that regional variations would persist and that trade flows between surplus and deficit centres would determine local price movements. The report concluded that stakeholders should prepare for a period of subdued pricing until demand signals strengthen.

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Concrete

Cement Prices Set To Stay Under Pressure In July

Monsoon and weak demand keep prices under strain

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A report by Centrum said cement prices are expected to remain largely flat in July as the monsoon and weak demand weigh on the sector. The report said demand during the first quarter of FY27 remained range-bound and below expectations, with dealers across markets pointing to subdued construction activity, labour shortages, elections, heatwaves and slower execution of government projects as key reasons. It noted that some recovery was witnessed in June due to delayed onset of the monsoon and quarter-end volume push.\n\nDealers across most markets do not expect any meaningful price increases in July, the report said, adding that attempts to raise prices in some markets are aimed at defending existing levels rather than achieving significant gains. The sharp correction following the rollback of April hikes has largely played out across most regions, limiting scope for further immediate increases. Seasonal slowdown in construction activity during the monsoon is expected to continue affecting demand and pricing in the coming months.\n\nCentrum indicated that pricing pressure is likely to persist through the second quarter of FY27 as monsoon-related softness continues. Dealers remain cautious about sustainability of any price rise attempts and do not rule out further weakness during the peak monsoon period. The combination of subdued demand and seasonal factors is likely to constrain the industry’s ability to raise prices in the near term. While June saw some improvement in volumes because of delayed rains and quarter-end sales efforts, the broader demand environment remains challenging.\n\nCement companies are therefore expected to focus on maintaining current price levels rather than pursuing aggressive increases as the sector navigates weak demand and seasonal headwinds. The report suggested that unless demand conditions improve significantly, limited scope will exist for meaningful price recovery. Market participants remain watchful for any shifts in execution of infrastructure projects or construction activity that could alter the outlook.

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Concrete

TARIL Secures Ultra Mega Transformer Order From PGCIL

Order for manufacturing transformers to be delivered in 30 months

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Transformers and Rectifiers (India) Limited has received Notifications of Awards from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) for multiple contracts to manufacture transformers and undertake associated works. The company submitted the disclosure to BSE and the National Stock Exchange under Regulation 30 of the SEBI Listing Regulations. The submission cited security code 532928 and trading symbol TARIL, and the filings cite the award reference and confirm execution in accordance with the terms and conditions stipulated in the notifications.

The contracts are described as an Ultra Mega Order under the company classification, indicating a value at or above Rs 10 billion (bn) on conversion. The filing identifies the contracts as domestic orders and specifies a scheduled delivery period of 30 months. The scope covers manufacturing of transformers of various ratings together with all associated work. The order size places it in the highest project classification defined in the company’s disclosure.

The disclosure states that the promoter group and group companies have no interest in the awarding entity and that the contracts do not constitute related party transactions. The company noted that the awards will be executed in the normal course of business and not fall within related party transactions. The document reiterates that the company is committed to delivering high quality products and services and has established itself as a leading manufacturer of transformers in the country over time.

Chief Financial Officer Mehul Shah authorised the filing and requested the exchanges to take the information on record, with the company providing the requisite filing reference in its submission. The company indicated that the orders will be executed as per the notifications of awards and the applicable regulatory framework. The original filing is available on the stock exchange portal at the provided link.

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