Concrete
A new phase of structural adjustments prompted by Bullwhip
Published
5 years agoon
By
admin
The latest data on the 2020-21 Q4 GDP shows a growth of 1.6 per cent over 2019-20 Q4, which in absolute numbers looks like Rs 38.96 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.33 lakh crore in Q4 of 2019-20. If anyone wants to see this in dollar terms, the dollar made a steep fall against the Rupee (Rs 75 v/s Rs 72.5) over this period, thus making the growth look like 5 per cent instead of 1.6 per cent. Despite these aberrations, the Indian economy weathered a major storm last year and both Q3 (0.5 per cent) and Q4 (1.6 per cent) have been two quarters of growth thus signaling a ??oming out??from the technical recession that was caused in Q1 and Q2 of 2020-21.
The drivers of growth however have shifted majorly in Q4, if one sees the sectorial data, the biggest unit of rise came from the government consumption expenditure increase of 28.3 per cent in the same period over last year. If we start with gross value added (GVA) growth (GDP growth minus product taxes), the manufacturing sector accelerated to 6.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 compared to a contraction of 4.2 per cent a year ago and construction grew by 14.5 per cent against 0.7 per cent, while both agricultural growth (down 3.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent) and hospitality and transport (down -2.3 per cent from 5.7 per cent) showed markedly lower numbers. We must keep in mind that only a week was lost in production activity in the corresponding quarter of last year, due to lockdowns, thus the two periods in terms of economic flow are not out of whack in comparison.
The crucial question is what we now expect the economy to perform, given that 66 per cent of the time in Q1 2021-22 is mired in semi-lockdowns, the informal sector is impacted heavily and working capital is locked in unforeseen inventories of all kind and debt moratoriums are being requested for another extended period of time over the previously allowed one. The question cannot be about comparing period numbers alone. Last year?? similar period was worse off with national lockdowns and the expectation at the start of the quarter was to achieve 22 per cent growth over that quarter. This looks a tall ask given the current state of the economic activities.
Let us move to some other dampening factor, perhaps more ominous than the stalling of economic activities through lockdowns. It is the rising commodity prices, which has seen no calming effects, either from the government or trade interventions, left to its own, the prices have spiraled into an orbit; many are calling this a precursor to the super cycle for commodities.
I am however of the view that the rise in global commodity prices, which finally impact every citizen of every country, were actually fueled by rising international logistics cost, global shipping to start with and followed by the inland full truckload freight costs, which later spilled over to every aspect of commodity prices.
The global barometer of logistics costs, the Baltic Dry Index stands at 2750 today, compared to 400 at the start of the crisis and the Shanghai containerised freight index stands at 3500 against 1000 at the start of the crisis last year. These numbers portray how many times the shipping costs have soared to move commodities from oil, coal, pet coke, to agricultural commodities to intermediate products to finally finished goods. The dollar weakness in the same period did adjust in some normative ways to counteract, but it is nowhere close to fully compensate for the deluge.
Every household item has moved several notches up in terms of prices, if they have not then sellers are simply absorbing the brunt of the increase from the input side.
This is what I call the supply side structural shift that every economy has to weather for the next several quarters. It all started with a shipping disruption, where vessels were stranded in high seas, which later moved to ports in form of congestion and then later impacted loading and unloading of vessels as people were not available. The final nail was the concentration of big five shipping lines that shared space among their carriers thus making the supply side even more tight, thus raising prices.
The structural shift needs to be seen from the point of what supply chains grapple with, the Whiplash effect, or the more commonly known Bullwhip effect. This essentially means that in a multi-echelon supply chain, for a small change in supply or demand conditions at the downstream part of the chain could translate to a much bigger change in the supply or demand conditions at the upstream part of the chain.
For an economy as diverse as India, with several supply chains crisscrossing each other, the disruptions in supply conditions in one part of the chain moves up or down the chain in varying degree of ripple effects, that are caused due to asymmetry of information, error propagation, ship-set mismatches and a host of financial woes travelling in multiple directions, working capital, inventory and cash flows being the key ones.
The supply chains in India have to adjust in these conditions and create new rules so that they are able to reconfigure their outputs and flows such that the new varying degrees of demand can be matched with varying supply conditions under constraints. This is the task that will be able to respond to price conditions better, something that will determine the next phase of GDP growth, not only for India, but for the globally connected markets as well.
Footnote:
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Procyon Mukherjee is an ex-Chief Procurement Officer at LafargeHolcim India.
Concrete
Cement Demand Revives As Prices Decline In Q3 FY26
Nuvama reports improved volume growth after price correction
Published
13 hours agoon
February 24, 2026By
admin
A report by Nuvama Financial Services (Nuvama) said cement sector demand revived in the third quarter of fiscal year twenty twenty six as prices declined, supporting volume growth across regions. The note indicated that sequential price correction helped replenish demand that had been subdued by elevated pricing earlier in the year. Nuvama quantified the price decline as a sequential correction that varied across states and segments, facilitating restocking by merchants and traders.
The report suggested that improved affordability after the price correction encouraged housing and infrastructure activity, with developers and contractors adjusting procurement plans. It added that regional dynamics varied, with some markets showing faster recovery while others remained reliant on seasonal construction cycles. Housing demand was driven by both affordable and mid segment projects, while infrastructure segment recovery was contingent on timely execution of public works.
Analysts at Nuvama assessed that the price moderation eased inventory pressures for manufacturers and distributors and supported margin stabilisation at several producers. Demand improvement was visible in both urban and rural segments, although the pace of recovery differed by state and trade channel. Producers were seen balancing price realisations with volume targets and managing input cost volatility through operational efficiencies.
The report recommended that investors monitor volumes and realisations closely as market equilibrium emerges in the coming quarters, noting that sustainability of recovery would depend on monsoon patterns and government infrastructure outlays. Overall, the assessment pointed to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the cement industry as price correction translated into tangible volume gains. Market participants were advised to track early signs of demand broadening beyond core construction hubs to assess the depth of the rebound.
Concrete
Refractory demands in our kiln have changed
Published
5 days agoon
February 20, 2026By
admin
Radha Singh, Senior Manager (P&Q), Shree Digvijay Cement, points out why performance, predictability and life-cycle value now matter more than routine replacement in cement kilns.
As Indian cement plants push for higher throughput, increased alternative fuel usage and tighter shutdown cycles, refractory performance in kilns and pyro-processing systems is under growing pressure. In this interview, Radha Singh, Senior Manager (P&Q), Shree Digvijay Cement, shares how refractory demands have evolved on the ground and how smarter digital monitoring is improving kiln stability, uptime and clinker quality.
How have refractory demands changed in your kiln and pyro-processing line over the last five years?
Over the last five years, refractory demands in our kiln and pyro line have changed. Earlier, the focus was mostly on standard grades and routine shutdown-based replacement. But now, because of higher production loads, more alternative fuels and raw materials (AFR) usage and greater temperature variation, the expectation from refractory has increased.
In our own case, the current kiln refractory has already completed around 1.5 years, which itself shows how much more we now rely on materials that can handle thermal shock, alkali attack and coating fluctuations. We have moved towards more stable, high-performance linings so that we don’t have to enter the kiln frequently for repairs.
Overall, the shift has been from just ‘installation and run’ to selecting refractories that give longer life, better coating behaviour and more predictable performance under tougher operating conditions.
What are the biggest refractory challenges in the preheater, calciner and cooler zones?
• Preheater: Coating instability, chloride/sulphur cycles and brick erosion.
• Calciner: AFR firing, thermal shock and alkali infiltration.
• Cooler: Severe abrasion, red-river formation and mechanical stress on linings.
Overall, the biggest challenge is maintaining lining stability under highly variable operating conditions.
How do you evaluate and select refractory partners for long-term performance?
In real plant conditions, we don’t select a refractory partner just by looking at price. First, we see their past performance in similar kilns and whether their material has actually survived our operating conditions. We also check how strong their technical support is during shutdowns, because installation quality matters as much as the material itself.
Another key point is how quickly they respond during breakdowns or hot spots. A good partner should be available on short notice. We also look at their failure analysis capability, whether they can explain why a lining failed and suggest improvements.
On top of this, we review the life they delivered in the last few campaigns, their supply reliability and their willingness to offer plant-specific custom solutions instead of generic grades. Only a partner who supports us throughout the life cycle, which includes selection, installation, monitoring and post-failure analysis, fits our long-term requirement.
Can you share a recent example where better refractory selection improved uptime or clinker quality?
Recently, we upgraded to a high-abrasion basic brick at the kiln outlet. Earlier we had frequent chipping and coating loss. With the new lining, thermal stability improved and the coating became much more stable. As a result, our shutdown interval increased and clinker quality remained more consistent. It had a direct impact on our uptime.
How is increased AFR use affecting refractory behaviour?
Increased AFR use is definitely putting more stress on the refractory. The biggest issue we see daily is the rise in chlorine, alkalis and volatiles, which directly attack the lining, especially in the calciner and kiln inlet. AFR firing is also not as stable as conventional fuel, so we face frequent temperature fluctuations, which cause more thermal shock and small cracks in the lining.
Another real problem is coating instability. Some days the coating builds too fast, other days it suddenly drops, and both conditions impact refractory life. We also notice more dust circulation and buildup inside the calciner whenever the AFR mix changes, which again increases erosion.
Because of these practical issues, we have started relying more on alkali-resistant, low-porosity and better thermal shock–resistant materials to handle the additional stress coming from AFR.
What role does digital monitoring or thermal profiling play in your refractory strategy?
Digital tools like kiln shell scanners, IR imaging and thermal profiling help us detect weakening areas much earlier. This reduces unplanned shutdowns, helps identify hotspots accurately and allows us to replace only the critical sections. Overall, our maintenance has shifted from reactive to predictive, improving lining life significantly.
How do you balance cost, durability and installation speed during refractory shutdowns?
We focus on three points:
• Material quality that suits our thermal profile and chemistry.
• Installation speed, in fast turnarounds, we prefer monolithic.
• Life-cycle cost—the cheapest material is not the most economical. We look at durability, future downtime and total cost of ownership.
This balance ensures reliable performance without unnecessary expenditure.
What refractory or pyro-processing innovations could transform Indian cement operations?
Some promising developments include:
• High-performance, low-porosity and nano-bonded refractories
• Precast modular linings to drastically reduce shutdown time
• AI-driven kiln thermal analytics
• Advanced coating management solutions
• More AFR-compatible refractory mixes
These innovations can significantly improve kiln stability, efficiency and maintenance planning across the industry.
Concrete
Digital supply chain visibility is critical
Published
5 days agoon
February 20, 2026By
admin
MSR Kali Prasad, Chief Digital and Information Officer, Shree Cement, discusses how data, discipline and scale are turning Industry 4.0 into everyday business reality.
Over the past five years, digitalisation in Indian cement manufacturing has moved decisively beyond experimentation. Today, it is a strategic lever for cost control, operational resilience and sustainability. In this interview, MSR Kali Prasad, Chief Digital and Information Officer, Shree Cement, explains how integrated digital foundations, advanced analytics and real-time visibility are helping deliver measurable business outcomes.
How has digitalisation moved from pilot projects to core strategy in Indian cement manufacturing over the past five years?
Digitalisation in Indian cement has evolved from isolated pilot initiatives into a core business strategy because outcomes are now measurable, repeatable and scalable. The key shift has been the move away from standalone solutions toward an integrated digital foundation built on standardised processes, governed data and enterprise platforms that can be deployed consistently across plants and functions.
At Shree Cement, this transition has been very pragmatic. The early phase focused on visibility through dashboards, reporting, and digitisation of critical workflows. Over time, this has progressed into enterprise-level analytics and decision support across manufacturing and the supply chain,
with clear outcomes in cost optimisation, margin protection and revenue improvement through enhanced customer experience.
Equally important, digital is no longer the responsibility of a single function. It is embedded into day-to-day operations across planning, production, maintenance, despatch and customer servicing, supported by enterprise systems, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) data platforms, and a structured approach to change management.
Which digital interventions are delivering the highest ROI across mining, production and logistics today?
In a capital- and cost-intensive sector like cement, the highest returns come from digital interventions that directly reduce unit costs or unlock latent capacity without significant capex.
Supply chain and planning (advanced analytics): Tools for demand forecasting, S&OP, network optimisation and scheduling deliver strong returns by lowering logistics costs, improving service levels, and aligning production with demand in a fragmented and regionally diverse market.
Mining (fleet and productivity analytics): Data-led mine planning, fleet analytics, despatch discipline, and idle-time reduction improve fuel efficiency and equipment utilisation, generating meaningful savings in a cost-heavy operation.
Manufacturing (APC and process analytics): Advanced Process Control, mill optimisation, and variability reduction improve thermal and electrical efficiency, stabilise quality and reduce rework and unplanned stoppages.
Customer experience and revenue enablement (digital platforms): Dealer and retailer apps, order visibility and digitally enabled technical services improve ease of doing business and responsiveness. We are also empowering channel partners with transparent, real-time information on schemes, including eligibility, utilisation status and actionable recommendations, which improves channel satisfaction and market execution while supporting revenue growth.
Overall, while Artificial Intelligence (AI) and IIoT are powerful enablers, it is advanced analytics anchored in strong processes that typically delivers the fastest and most reliable ROI.
How is real-time data helping plants shift from reactive maintenance to predictive and prescriptive operations?
Real-time and near real-time data is driving a more proactive and disciplined maintenance culture, beginning with visibility and progressively moving toward prediction and prescription.
At Shree Cement, we have implemented a robust SAP Plant Maintenance framework to standardise maintenance workflows. This is complemented by IIoT-driven condition monitoring, ensuring consistent capture of equipment health indicators such as vibration, temperature, load, operating patterns and alarms.
Real-time visibility enables early detection of abnormal conditions, allowing teams to intervene before failures occur. As data quality improves and failure histories become structured, predictive models can anticipate likely failure modes and recommend timely interventions, improving MTBF and reducing downtime. Over time, these insights will evolve into prescriptive actions, including spares readiness, maintenance scheduling, and operating parameter adjustments, enabling reliability optimisation with minimal disruption.
A critical success factor is adoption. Predictive insights deliver value only when they are embedded into daily workflows, roles and accountability structures. Without this, they remain insights without action.
In a cost-sensitive market like India, how do cement companies balance digital investment with price competitiveness?
In India’s intensely competitive cement market, digital investments must be tightly linked to tangible business outcomes, particularly cost reduction, service improvement, and faster decision-making.
This balance is achieved by prioritising high-impact use cases such as planning efficiency, logistics optimisation, asset reliability, and process stability, all of which typically deliver quick payback. Equally important is building scalable and governed digital foundations that reduce the marginal cost of rolling out new use cases across plants.
Digitally enabled order management, live despatch visibility, and channel partner platforms also improve customer centricity while controlling cost-to-serve, allowing service levels to improve without proportionate increases in headcount or overheads.
In essence, the most effective digital investments do not add cost. They protect margins by reducing variability, improving planning accuracy, and strengthening execution discipline.
How is digitalisation enabling measurable reductions in energy consumption, emissions, and overall carbon footprint?
Digitalisation plays a pivotal role in improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions and lowering overall carbon intensity.
Real-time monitoring and analytics enable near real-time tracking of energy consumption and critical operating parameters, allowing inefficiencies to be identified quickly and corrective actions to be implemented. Centralised data consolidation across plants enables benchmarking, accelerates best-practice adoption, and drives consistent improvements in energy performance.
Improved asset reliability through predictive maintenance reduces unplanned downtime and process instability, directly lowering energy losses. Digital platforms also support more effective planning and control of renewable energy sources and waste heat recovery systems, reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
Most importantly, digitalisation enables sustainability progress to be tracked with greater accuracy and consistency, supporting long-term ESG commitments.
What role does digital supply chain visibility play in managing demand volatility and regional market dynamics in India?
Digital supply chain visibility is critical in India, where demand is highly regional, seasonality is pronounced, and logistics constraints can shift rapidly.
At Shree Cement, planning operates across multiple horizons. Annual planning focuses on capacity, network footprint and medium-term demand. Monthly S&OP aligns demand, production and logistics, while daily scheduling drives execution-level decisions on despatch, sourcing and prioritisation.
As digital maturity increases, this structure is being augmented by central command-and-control capabilities that manage exceptions such as plant constraints, demand spikes, route disruptions and order prioritisation. Planning is also shifting from aggregated averages to granular, cost-to-serve and exception-based decision-making, improving responsiveness, lowering logistics costs and strengthening service reliability.
How prepared is the current workforce for Industry 4.0, and what reskilling strategies are proving most effective?
Workforce preparedness for Industry 4.0 is improving, though the primary challenge lies in scaling capabilities consistently across diverse roles.
The most effective approach is to define capability requirements by role and tailor enablement accordingly. Senior leadership focuses on digital literacy for governance, investment prioritisation, and value tracking. Middle management is enabled to use analytics for execution discipline and adoption. Frontline sales and service teams benefit from
mobile-first tools and KPI-driven workflows, while shop-floor and plant teams focus on data-driven operations, APC usage, maintenance discipline, safety and quality routines.
Personalised, role-based learning paths, supported by on-ground champions and a clear articulation of practical benefits, drive adoption far more effectively than generic training programmes.
Which emerging digital technologies will fundamentally reshape cement manufacturing in the next decade?
AI and GenAI are expected to have the most significant impact, particularly when combined with connected operations and disciplined processes.
Key technologies likely to reshape the sector include GenAI and agentic AI for faster root-cause analysis, knowledge access, and standardisation of best practices; industrial foundation models that learn patterns across large sensor datasets; digital twins that allow simulation of process changes before implementation; and increasingly autonomous control systems that integrate sensors, AI, and APC to maintain stability with minimal manual intervention.
Over time, this will enable more centralised monitoring and management of plant operations, supported by strong processes, training and capability-building.
Cement Demand Revives As Prices Decline In Q3 FY26
Refractory demands in our kiln have changed
Digital supply chain visibility is critical
Redefining Efficiency with Digitalisation
Cement Additives for Improved Grinding Efficiency
Cement Demand Revives As Prices Decline In Q3 FY26
Refractory demands in our kiln have changed
Digital supply chain visibility is critical
Redefining Efficiency with Digitalisation
Cement Additives for Improved Grinding Efficiency
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