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Union Budget 2020-21 | Remedy fails to match malady

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As the Union Budget 2020-21 failed to enthuse different segments of investors and consumers, the question that remains is: How long to wait for economic revival?

The sum and substance of reactions to the Union Budget 2020-21 presented by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was that it has belied the expectations that there will be some "big bang" measures to stimulate demand and investments in the sagging economy, and that this was a missed opportunity to push some major economic reforms.

This year’s budget has given thrust to agriculture, irrigation and rural development, infrastructure, skill development and the beleaguered financial sector. There were some measures to support MSME sector and affordable housing too. The idea was to touch upon every aspect that could help revive the economy, with an expectation that at least a few of them will click. However, those ideas were not backed by sufficient resources, ultimately due to existing funds crunch. Though the Finance minister claimed to have announced some personal tax concessions, they are unlikely to make big difference in their disposable incomes and overall consumer demand.

The budget has also proposed to tap global sovereign funds to finance infrastructure projects, mainly due to drying up of long term domestic sources and fiscal constraints. Taking a leaf from the US president Donald Trump, the budget has hiked customs duties to protect the domestic industry from external competition. "There is some support to growth, but nothing substantial in the short term. However, the government is still eyeing the long term and has, therefore, pushed capex (the government’s capital expenditure on infra etc.). The multiplier impact of this will be positive but lagged,"said leading rating firm Crisil, in its report on budget.

The economists and analysts argued for employing all means, including deviating from fiscal roadmap in the short term, to pump prime the economic activity, but that was not to be. Tough increasing the fiscal deficit target by 0.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent deviating from its roadmap, a recent study by former Economic Advisor to the Finance Ministry Dr Arvind Subramanian, estimates the fiscal deficit figure at 5.5 per cent, after including deals kept out of government accounting.

Recently, referring to such off-balance sheet expenses resorted to by the government, its auditor, Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG), advised the government to make thorough disclosure on such liabilities made by the government and public enterprises to the parliament, to impart more sanctity to its accounting practices.

The government had been in denial mode of economic slowdown for some time, the latest statistics baring the ominous state of the economy prove that it hs come to terms with the reality.

Infra push
Infrastructure push given by the budget is expected to provide support to Cement consumption, albeit not in a big way. "The demand for the commodity (cement) will pick up due to infrastructure, housing and rural development related announcements," said CARE Ratings in its report, while terming it a "Positive" impact of the budget.

Adding 100 more airports by 2024, Rs 1.7 lakh crore allocation for transport infrastructure in 2020-21, development of five new smart cities and continuation of incentives to affordable housing are some of the new proposals in the budget. In the previous budgets the government has already announced its grand infrastructure plans National Infrastructure Pipeline & Accelerated Development of Highways and increased focus on inland water ways.

However, Crisil has given "thumbs down"on the sector citing falling allocations for the sector in the coming fiscal and reduction in off-budget allocations. "For the first time in years, overall infrastructure capex has fallen to Rs 4.7 lakh crore for fiscal 2021 from Rs 5.1 lakh crore in fiscal 2020 RE (revised estimates). Moreover, a 16 per cent reduction in IEBR (Internal and Extra Budgetary Resources) implies a higher burden on budgetary support and strain on government finances. Lower spend on infrastructure would also lower chances of revival in allied sectors, particularly steel and cement."

The past implementation pace on the grand plans the government had announced in the past like National Infrastructure Pipeline and Accelerated Development of Highways, on the other hand, have nothing to boast about. The national infrastructure pipeline of Rs 103 lakh crore over fiscal 2020-25 includes investments in core and allied infrastructure sectors. Excluding allied sectors such as industrial, digital, and social infrastructure, the annual core infrastructure investment amounts to Rs 15 lakh crore, or Rs 90 lakh crore over the five-year period."Of this, Rs 4.7 lakh crore would come from the Centre and Rs 2.6 lakh crore from states, leaving ~52% to the private sector. However, considering the limited number of private players and low risk-appetite of banks, private participation is a key monitorable in achieving these targets,"Crisil added.

Allocation for railways has increased by a meagre three per cent to Rs 1.6 lakh crore. "But this falls way short of the Rs 3.8 lakh crore annual investment envisaged as part of Rs 50 lakh crore investment over fiscals 2018-30. A capex of Rs 6 lakh crore was incurred between fiscals 2016 and 2020, missing the Rs 8.5 lakh crore target set for this period," Crisil pointed out.

However, CARE Ratings billed the budget impact on railways as "positive", stating, "Stable Budget for Railways with similar capital expenditure allocation and opening up of private investment for railway infrastructure creation."Setting up large solar power capacity alongside rail track to optimise electrification cost and railway electrification of 27000 km track are also positives for the sector.

The government, in August 2014, had opened up few activities (comprising suburban corridor, high speed train project, railway electrification, passenger terminals etc.) of Indian Railway for FDI and the budget re-emphasises Government focus on same. The capital outlay allocated towards the Roads and Highway sector is Rs 0.77 lakh crore. "The allocation is not in lines with the NIP where the centre is involved in providing 25 per cent of the investment,"says CARE Ratings. The budget also proposed to monetise at least 12 lots of highway bundles of over 6,000 Km before 2024, but CARE Ratings says the timely fructification of this proposal holds the key for the sector.

Though Bullet Train project figured again in the budget, it has been a laggard in implementation. While it is envisaged to operate 15 passenger trains and re-development of four stations on PPP basis, the low rate of success in the past does not inspire confidence.

In line with the budget thrust to rural infrastructure, Prime Minister Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) allocations were up 39 per cent to 19,000 crore, even as achievement ratio has fallen by 74 per cent in 2019-20 from 94 per cent in 2016-17, making the budgeted target for fiscal 2021 aggressive. Moreover, rural road construction targets over the next five years under PMGSY III are lower at 125,000 km, compared with 218,000 km constructed over the past five years.

Vimal Kejriwal, MD & CEO of KEC International says, "The budget’s infra focus is expected to provide a significant fillip to KEC. Allocation towards power and renewable energy, and transport infrastructure, upgradation of stations and developing solar in railways, setting up of 100 new airports, 5 new Smart cities and linking one lakh gram panchayats with BharatNet augurs well for our businesses."

CRISIL Research’s analysis of 106 airports already awarded under UDAN reveals that 62 of these remain non-operational due to lack of basic airport infrastructure. An estimated capex of Rs 4,500-5,000 crore is needed for their revival. Thus, plan for 100 more airports would be achieved only with a lag.

Overall, tax exemptions for sovereign funds to increase foreign investor participation across infrastructure sectors is a positive with investments already visible in roads, power and airports.

Power sector too has got some nudge in the budget. Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior Vice President & Group Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA Ltd., says, "Shutting down of old thermal power plants will shift generation to newer generation thermal projects and thus provide a moderate boost to their plant load factors (PLF). Abolition of dividend distribution tax and lower tax rates will encourage fresh investments in the power sector, especially renewable energy and transmission sectors."

Housing
Budgetary allocation for Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) at Rs 27,500 crore is up by 9 per cent over the last fiscal’s RE. PMAY-Urban has an overall target of constructing 1.12 crore houses by 2022. Of these, 1.03 crore houses have been sanctioned as of January 2020. PMAY-Rural has an overall target of 2.95 crore, of which about 0.9 crore units stand completed as of December 2019.

From the affordable housing buyer’s point of view, the additional deduction of up to Rs 1.5 lakh for interest paid on loans taken has now been extended till March 31, 2021.

Hardik Agrawal, CEO of Radha Madhav Developers says, "This budget stimulates the supply of affordable houses a tax holiday is provided on the profits earned by developers of affordable housing project approved by 31st March, 2020. Even in order to minimize suffering in real-estate transactions and provide relief to the sector, FM proposed to increase the limit of transaction from 5% to 10% (of deviation from circle price for tax scrutiny). Overall this was a consoling budget."

Malady & remedy
What is it that made this budget special? It has come in the backdrop of growth deceleration for six consecutive quarters driven by low growth in consumption and investment. The burden of two failed budgets presented in 2019 – before and after the general elections – were also weighing on the Finance Minister. Pre-poll sops were targeted towards the poor and farmers, while the post-poll budget targeted at the companies and businesses.

A drop in private consumption growth played a big role in bringing down GDP growth to an 11-year low. Private consumption growth slowed to 5.8 per cent in fiscal 2020, from 7.2 per cent in fiscal 2019. A dent to incomes, declining household savings ratio and higher household leverage have kept the consumer’s risk aversion high.

Crisil in its analysis of demand side impact of the budget, projected that some support to rural demand was expected from higher allocation to schemes like PMGSY and PMAY, which will augment incomes. "PM Kisan spending for fiscal 2021 has been maintained at the previous fiscal’s budgetary level, but the focus should be on ensuring that part of the amount does not remain unspent," Crisil suggested. Investment growth dropped to one per cent in fiscal 2020 from 9.8 per cent in fiscal 2019. While private investments have been weak, the government’s ability to fund capex also remains constrained. The budget focus on infrastructure spending will support investment to an extent as central PSU investments are projected to decline, says Crisil. However, the rating agency did not exude the same kind of confidence in growth of private investments during in the next fiscal.

Government consumption spending, mostly on the social sector schemes, supported growth in fiscal 2020. "The government has continued to focus on social sector schemes (including those that augment rural incomes, such as PMGSY, PMAY, NREGA and PM Kisan)," Crisil added.

The budget’s support to MSMEs is a "mild positive" for exports going ahead, says Crisil. Decelerating global growth, falling trade intensity, and uncertainties from the US-China trade war are hurting India’s exports. India’s exports is estimated to fall 2 per cent in fiscal 2020, compared with a growth of 12 per cent in fiscal 2019.

However, the budget is a mixed bag for the current problem in the financial sector. While bringing some relief to the beleaguered non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) by expanding scope for recovery of their bad loans is positive, seeking to remove exemptions in personal income-tax is expected to reduce savings and insurance premiums. However, increasing the bank deposit insurance coverage from Rs one lakh to Rs 5 lakh is expected to increase the confidence of bank depositors, which touched its ebb with the recent failure of co-operative banks.

Worst is not closer than it appears
For cement industry to thrive the overall economy has to be robust. The budget has pulled some levers feebly, that may not be enough to spur the economic growth pace. When private sector is not forthcoming to make investment, it is incumbent on the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to take steps to revive the economy. Even as RBI had cut the repo rate cumulatively by 135 basis points (bps) through calendar 2019, banks have cut lending rates only by just 40-50 bps.

Crisil says, "In the absence of growth kickers, growth pick-up in fiscal 2021 is expected to be largely led by the base effect and supported by somewhat better farm income (led by a good rabi crop) and the delayed impact of monetary easing. Critical to this forecast is the assumption of a normal monsoon in calendar 2020 and benign global crude oil prices."

Kapil Gupta of Edelweiss Research says, "Overall, from a business cycle standpoint, aggregate fiscal push is missing. We think, given weak demand, consolidation could have waited. Thus, the economy, at best, will see a modest bounce aided by liquidity easing, normalisation in farm cash flows amid rising food inflation, and stabilisation in exports. But the virtuous economic cycle may still be distant."

This kind of consensus among analysts leave us with the question: How long we have to wait to see economic revival?

Infrastructure in Budget

  • 100 more airports to be developed by 2024 to support UDAAN Scheme
  • Rs 1.7 lakh crore allocated towards transport infrastructure
  • Development of 5 new smart cities
  • Further incentivising and boosting affordable housing
  • Increased focus on inland water ways
  • Allowing sovereign funds to invest in infrastructure 15 new passenger trains through PPP route

    Past announcements continued:

  • Grand plans announced in the past: National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) & Accelerated Development of Highways
  • Provision of Rs. 22,000 cr already provided to support the NIP, to cater to equity support to infra finance companies like IIFCL and a subsidiary of NIIF
  • Bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad
  • Taxation Measures
    For corporates/ cooperative societies

  • Concessional tax rate for cooperative societies proposed (from 30% to 22%)
  • Concessional tax rate of 15% to new domestic companies extended to electricity generation companies
  • Dividend distribution tax removed; dividend will now be taxed in the hands of individuals
  • Tax concession for sovereign wealth funds of foreign governments

  • – BS SRINIVASALU REDDY

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    Concrete

    UltraTech Cement expands green logistics with 600+ electric truck fleet

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    The e-truck fleet will be used to transport five million MT of clinker and other key materials with potential of over 1,17,000 tonnes of net annual CO₂ reduction, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.

    Mumbai

    UltraTech Cement Limited, an Aditya Birla Group company and the world’s largest cement company by sales volume and capacity outside China, has announced that it will scale up its electric vehicle fleet in its logistics operations to 600+ EV trucks by December 2026.

    UltraTech has signed service contracts with leading EV prime mover manufacturers including Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, IPLTech, Energy in Motion and Sany, along with their subsidiaries and other third-party logistics providers, to deploy EV trucks.

    The total fleet of 600+ EV trucks will transport about five million MT of clinker and other key materials per annum across Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha. Once fully operational, this fleet of over 600 EV trucks will enable a net annual CO₂ reduction of more than 1,17,000 tonnes, displacing the equivalent of 39 million litres of diesel per year.

    K C Jhanwar, Managing Director, UltraTech Cement Limited, said, “UltraTech is expanding sustainability beyond its plants by adopting greener logistics solutions. This large-scale transition to green logistics underscores our focus on decarbonising every link of our value chain and supports our commitment to achieving Net Zero.”

    UltraTech has been a pioneer in advancing sustainable transport in the cement sector, being the first cement company to deploy heavy-duty electric trucks for long-haul transport of clinker and other materials at scale. The company was among the first in India to introduce green logistics, deploying CNG trucks in 2021 and electric trucks in 2024. UltraTech currently operates 850+ trucks as part of its green logistics operations, including CNG and electric trucks.

    UltraTech, with a grey cement capacity of over 200 MTPA in India, operates one of the country’s most complex logistics networks. Its electrification strategy covers the entire supply chain—from mine-to-plant movement to inter-plant transport of clinker and other key materials.

    The $ 10 billion UltraTech, the cement flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, has a total Grey Cement capacity of 205.5 MTPA and White Cement/Putty capacity of 3.2 MTPA. It is a signatory to the GCCA Climate Ambition 2050 and has committed to the Net Zero Concrete roadmap announced by GCCA.

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    Concrete

    Protect Your Margins

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    In a research-backed article, Dr SB Hegde examines why carbon-adjusted profitability and LC3 will decide the next set of winners in cement manufacturing.

    The Indian cement industry has achieved world-class operational efficiency through lower specific energy consumption, high plant utilisation and a reduced average clinker factor of approximately 67.5 per cent. These traditional measures of operational excellence remain essential. However, they are no longer sufficient. Carbon now carries a measurable financial cost under India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and under European carbon markets. Future leadership will be defined by carbon-adjusted profitability, the ability to generate strong returns while systematically lowering the carbon intensity of every ton sold.
    Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) offers a practical, scalable pathway to achieve this dual objective. By replacing up to 50 per cent of clinker with calcined clay and limestone, LC3 can reduce CO2 emissions by 30–40 per cent while delivering comparable or superior durability performance.
    This article examines the technical foundations of LC3, European industrial practices, the emerging Indian carbon market and a concrete roadmap for Indian companies to embed carbon-adjusted metrics and LC3 into daily operations, incentives and commercial strategy.

    Limits of traditional operational excellence
    For many years, plant performance has been judged primarily by five indicators: specific heat consumption, specific power consumption, kiln and mill utilisation, clinker factor and overall equipment effectiveness. These metrics drove continuous improvement and helped the industry reduce energy use and increase the share of blended cement. Three structural changes have rendered them incomplete as sole measures of success.
    First, carbon now carries a real or opportunity cost. Plants that improve volume or lower cash cost while raising or stagnating emissions intensity create a hidden liability that will surface as CCTS trading matures and as green procurement expands.
    Second, lower-carbon products such as LC3 and high-performance blended cements are creating differentiated market segments. Customers in infrastructure, real estate and export-oriented construction are beginning to specify embodied-carbon limits.
    Third, investors and lenders increasingly treat carbon intensity as a financial risk factor. Traditional KPIs can mask the divergence between short-term cash profit and long-term carbon-adjusted value.

    What is carbon-adjusted profitability?
    Carbon-adjusted profitability evaluates normal profit after explicit adjustment for carbon performance. A practical expression is:
    Carbon-Adjusted EBITDA = Conventional EBITDA – Carbon Cost + Green Premium Income
    Carbon cost may be an internal carbon price, the actual cost of purchasing Carbon Credit Certificates under CCTS, or the opportunity cost of high emissions relative to peers. Green premium income arises when customers pay more for verified lower-carbon cement or when the company sells surplus credits. Tracking both conventional and carbon-adjusted profit side-by-side gives management a clearer picture of value creation under evolving market rules.

    Table 1. Traditional KPIs versus Carbon-Adjusted Leadership Metrics
    Traditional Focus New Leadership Metric Why It Matters
    Specific energy consumption Emissions intensity (kg CO2/t cement) Directly linked to future CCTS and CBAM costs
    Kiln utilisation Carbon-adjusted contribution margin Reveals true value of incremental volume
    Clinker factor Share of lower-carbon products sold (incl. LC3) Measures commercial success of the transition
    Power cost per tonne Effective carbon cost per tonne sold Expose hidden liabilities
    Absolute EBITDA Carbon-adjusted EBITDA + green premium Aligning profit with future market reality

    LC3: Technical foundations and performance advantages
    LC3 is a ternary blended cement that typically combines approximately 50 per cent clinker, 30 per cent calcined clay, 15 per cent limestone and 5 per cent gypsum (the classic LC3-50 formulation). The decisive technical advantage is that clay is calcined at 700–850 °C, far below the 1,450 °C required for clinker production. This lower temperature, together with the substantial reduction in clinker content, delivers CO2 reductions of 30–40 per cent relative to ordinary Portland cement (OPC).
    Chemistry is synergistic. Calcined kaolinitic clay (metakaolin) reacts with calcium hydroxide from clinker hydration and with limestone to form additional C-A-S-H gel and carboaluminate phases. These phases densify the microstructure, reduce porosity and improve durability.
    Field experience shows superior resistance to chloride ingress, sulphate attack and alkali–silica reaction. Early-age strength can match OPC with high-reactivity clays; later-age strengths routinely meet 42.5 and 52.5 grade requirements.
    Importantly, LC3 does not require high-purity kaolin. Clays with 40 per cent or even lower kaolinite content can be activated successfully, expanding raw-material availability across India. Calcination can use adapted rotary kilns or dedicated flash calciners, making the technology compatible with existing plant infrastructure and far less capital-intensive than carbon capture.
    Economic analyses show that LC3 can be produced at equal or lower cost than OPC in many locations because of reduced energy demand and cheaper clay. Life-cycle assessments consistently report 30–40 per cent lower embodied CO2 per tonne of cement.
    Table 2. Comparative profile: OPC versus LC3-50
    Parameter OPC LC3-50
    Typical clinker content ~95 per cent ~50 per cent
    CO2 emissions (relative) Baseline (≈0.85 t CO2/t cement process + fuel) 30–40 per cent lower
    Clay calcination temperature Not applicable 700–850 °C
    Key hydration products C-S-H, portlandite, ettringite C-A-S-H + carboaluminates
    Chloride & sulphate resistance Good Superior
    Production cost potential Baseline Equal or lower in most locations
    Infrastructure compatibility Existing High (minor adaptations)

    In India, commercial adoption has begun in earnest. JK Cement commenced the first commercial production of LC3 in the Indian subcontinent at its Mangrol plant in Rajasthan in 2025 under BIS standard IS 18189.
    By early 2026, approximately 2,000 tonnes had been produced and sold, avoiding an estimated 500 tonnes of CO2. JK Lakshmi Cement followed with commercial launch of its Green PRO LC3 grade from the Jaykaypuram plant. As of mid-2026, two producers are supplying LC3 to the market. The first large-scale infrastructure application is the Noida International Airport (Jewar), where LC3 was used in the runway and a building complex, demonstrating full constructability and performance under demanding conditions. These early volumes are still small relative to national cement demand, but they mark the critical transition from pilot to commercial reality. Companies that scale capacity now will be positioned to capture both CCTS credits and emerging green-procurement demand.

    Why the shift is accelerating
    According to the World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026, direct carbon pricing now covers nearly 30 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions and generated more than US$107 billion in public revenue in 2025. The average global carbon price stands at approximately US$21 per tonne, although regional prices vary widely.
    In Europe, the EU ETS price has traded near €80–85 per tonen in mid-2026. Free allocation for cement is being withdrawn in parallel with CBAM. European producers therefore face a clear signal: every tonne of avoided CO2 improves both compliance and competitiveness. Holcim has scaled calcined-clay production, including Europe’s first dedicated line at Saint-Pierre-la-Cour (France) and a second line in the Czech Republic (2026). Heidelberg Materials, Cementir (FUTURECEM) and others have commercialised low-clinker calcined-clay blends across multiple markets, showing that carbon-adjusted profitability is already reshaping capital allocation in the world’s most mature carbon market.India’s CCTS is now operational. Binding emission intensity targets apply to 186 cement facilities for FY 2025–26 and FY 2026–27. Average required reductions for integrated plants are modest (around 2.7 per cent by FY 2027), yet the direction is clear.
    Trading of Carbon Credit Certificates is expected in the second half of 2026, with early prices likely in the `800–1,500 per tonne range. Plants that outperform targets can sell credits; those that underperform must buy them or face compensation. Cement is well positioned to be a net supplier of credits if clinker factor continues to fall through LC3 and other low-clinker systems.

    Way forward for India
    India starts from a strong baseline, world-class energy efficiency and a clinker factor already lower than the global average. The next competitive frontier is the deliberate reduction of process emissions through clinker substitution at scale. LC3 is uniquely suited to Indian conditions because suitable clays are widely distributed, the technology fits existing kiln and grinding infrastructure, and the resulting product can meet the performance demands of both infrastructure and building construction.
    A practical national pathway contains five interlocking elements:

    1. Standards and acceptance: Accelerated finalisation and promotion of BIS specifications for calcined-clay and limestone–calcined-clay cements will remove a key barrier to commercial uptake. Alignment with European practice (EN 197-5) can facilitate knowledge transfer and export readiness.
    2. Supply-chain development: Investment in flash calcination capacity and systematic characterisation of regional clay deposits will secure reliable, low-cost feedstock. Existing rotary kilns can be adapted for initial volumes while dedicated calciners are built.
    3. Incentive alignment: Part of variable compensation for plant managers, sales teams and senior leadership should be linked to emissions intensity reduction and to the volume of lower-carbon products (including LC3) sold. Without this link, traditional volume and cost targets will continue to dominate behaviour.
    4. Product-level carbon accounting: Reliable measurement of emissions intensity at the individual cement grade level, supported by third-party verification where required, is essential for both CCTS compliance and credible green claims.
    5. Demand-side pull: Green public procurement policies that specify maximum embodied-carbon thresholds for major infrastructure projects will create a predictable market for LC3 and other low-carbon cements, accelerating scale and cost reduction.
      Companies that treat LC3 as a strategic product line rather than a niche offering will be better positioned to generate surplus Carbon Credit Certificates, capture any emerging green premium, and protect margins as carbon costs rise.

    Organisational changes required
    Technical capability alone is insufficient. Three organisational shifts are required.
    Daily management: Emissions intensity must appear on the same daily and monthly dashboards as heat consumption, power consumption and utilization. Plant reviews should examine both conventional and carbon-adjusted results.
    Incentives: A meaningful portion of bonuses for plant heads, technical teams and sales leadership should be tied to lower emissions intensity and successful commercialisation of LC3 and other low-carbon grades.
    Commercial approach: Sales teams need clear volume and pricing targets for lower-carbon products, supported by technical service that helps customers specify and place the material correctly. Without commercial pull, excellent technical performance remains under-utilised.

    Table 3. Three-stage roadmap to carbon-adjusted profitability
    Time Horizon Priority Actions Expected Outcome
    Next 12 months Add emissions intensity to plant dashboards; establish internal carbon price; initiate LC3 pilot production and customer trials Visibility and early organisational learning
    12–24 months Revise incentive systems; scale LC3 and other low-carbon grades to key accounts; secure third-party verification capability People and sales aligned with carbon goals
    24–36 months Embed carbon-adjusted metrics in board reporting and capital allocation; expand calcined-clay capacity Full system integration and competitive advantage

    Questions senior leaders should ask
    Boards can accelerate the transition by insisting on answers to a short list of questions:
    • Is our carbon-adjusted profit improving, stable or declining relative to conventional EBITDA?
    • Did recent volume growth improve or worsen our emissions intensity?
    • What share of sales already comes from lower-carbon products, including LC3, and what is the trajectory?
    • How exposed is our capital expenditure plan to rising carbon costs under CCTS and potential CBAM-related requirements?
    • Do our incentive systems still reward only volume and cost, or have they been updated to include carbon performance?
    Treating carbon with the same seriousness as energy cost or kiln utilization does not diminish operational excellence; it expands the definition of excellence to match the new competitive reality.

    Looking ahead
    By 2030 the gap between leading and lagging cement companies will not be decided by who records the lowest specific heat consumption. It will be decided by who delivers the strongest carbon-adjusted profits.
    Absolute emissions may still rise as national production grows. That is not the issue. Companies that reduce intensity year after year and successfully sell cleaner products will pull ahead in both domestic and export markets. Those that do not will fall behind, even if their traditional efficiency numbers look strong.
    Operational excellence built the Indian cement industry. It remains the foundation. It is no longer the complete picture. Carbon-adjusted profitability is the clearer measure of success.
    LC3 is not a distant technology. It is available now. It cuts CO3 by 30–40 per cent, works with existing plants, and is already in commercial production in India. Companies that treat it as a strategic product, not a pilot, will protect their margins and generate tradable credits.
    Leaders who act now will place carbon metrics on daily dashboards, link incentives to intensity reduction and LC3 sales, invest in calcined-clay capacity, and build commercial capability to sell lower-carbon products. They will shape the next chapter of the industry.

    References

    1. World Bank. (2026). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
    2. International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP). (2026). India Carbon Credit Trading Scheme – Status and Coverage. Berlin: ICAP.
    3. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change / Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025). Greenhouse Gases Emission Intensity Target Rules, 2025. New Delhi: Government of India.
    4. Scrivener, K., Martirena, F., Bishnoi, S., & Maity, S. (2018). Calcined clay limestone cements (LC3). Cement and Concrete Research, 114, 49–56.
    5. RMI. (2024). The Business Case for LC3. Rocky Mountain Institute.
    6. European Commission. (2026). EU Emissions Trading System – Allowance Price Data and Free Allocation Phase-out Schedule. Brussels.
    7. Holcim. (2025–2026). Scaling Calcined Clay for Sustainable Building – Corporate Updates on European and Latin American Capacity. Zurich: Holcim Ltd.
    8. LC3 Project / EPFL. (2026). LC3 – A Guide to Best Practices for Scalable, Affordable and Sustainable Low-Carbon Building. Lausanne: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
    9. Business Today / Industry Reports. (2026). First Large-Scale LC3 Application at Noida International Airport, Jewar. New Delhi.
    10. NITI Aayog / Industry Analyses. (2026). Roadmap and Baseline Performance Indicators for the Indian Cement Sector. New Delhi.
    11. Springer / Innovative Infrastructure Solutions. (2026). LC3 Systems: A Review of Chemistry, Performance, Durability and Sustainability toward Market Adoption.
    12. Cementir Holding / Industry Sources. (2025–2026). FUTURECEM and Related Low-Clinker Technologies in Europe.
    13. Climate Risk Horizons & Independent Analyses. (2026). Assessment of Emission Intensity Targets under India’s CCTS for Cement and Other Hard-to-Abate Sectors.
    14. GCCA / TERI. (Various years). Decarbonization Roadmaps for the Indian Cement Industry.
    15. EN 197-5:2021. Cement – Part 5: Portland-composite cement CEM II/C-M and Composite cement CEM VI. European Committee for Standardization.

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    Concrete

    More Oversight Makes Cement Plants Less Safe

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    Dijam Panigrahi makes a counterintuitive but data-backed argument that routing every sensor alert through human approval does not make cement plants safer.

    India’s cement industry has spent the last two years wiring kilns, mills and coolers with sensors and automated control systems, and the safety case for doing so is strong on paper. Contract workers still make up the majority of the industry’s workforce, and fatal accidents remain a recurring problem. The Indian National Cement Workers Federation has noted that around 83 per cent of workers in the sector hold precarious positions, a fact that resurfaced after an oxygen cylinder explosion killed three contract workers at a plant in Chhattisgarh.
    Industry tallies compiled by IndustriALL found cement plants recorded at least seventeen accidents in one year with 21 workers killed, and ten accidents the following year with nine killed, most of them contract staff. Automated monitoring, in theory, closes that gap. A sensor never gets complacent and never skips a check because a shift is short staffed.
    However, plants that respond by routing every anomaly reading to a person for approval are quietly building a system that fails the same way understaffing does. When operators receive dozens of flagged deviations a shift, most of them minor, they learn a simple lesson: the fastest way through the queue is to approve without reading closely. The safety benefit disappears, not because the technology failed, but because the humans supervising it adapted to the volume.

    Why alerts get ignored
    A study cited by manufacturing technology publisher Applied SmartFactory found more than 95 per cent of alarms in a semiconductor fab were low priority, and only about 4 per cent ever triggered an action, with just 100 out of 5,000 alarms accounting for 70 per cent of all alarm activity. The mechanism is the same whether the trigger is a vibration sensor or an AI model flagging a kiln temperature swing. Once the ratio of noise to signal crosses a threshold, workers stop treating the system as a decision aid and start treating it as a formality to clear.
    The scale of AI deployment underway makes this more than a theoretical risk. Stanford’s 2026 AI Index Report found organisational adoption of AI has reached 88 per cent, even as documented AI incidents rose to 362 in 2025, up sharply from 233 the year before, according to analysis of the report. The Index also found only about a third of organisations have adopted a formal governance framework, with NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework cited by 33 per cent and ISO/IEC 42001 cited by 36 per cent.
    Most manufacturers are deploying monitoring systems faster than they are building the judgment for when a flagged event actually needs a person’s attention. In India, plants run by JK Cement have begun pairing CCTV feeds with AI to define safe zones around heavy machinery, a promising direction that still depends on operators trusting and reading the alerts the system generates.

    A three-tier model for cement plant
    The fix is not less monitoring or more monitoring. It is classifying decisions by risk and by novelty, rather than treating human oversight as a single switch that is either on or off. A workable model sorts factory floor events into three tiers.
    The first tier, proceed, covers deviations the plant has seen before that fall within known safe bounds, such as a kiln feed rate adjustment within an established range. These should run without a stop for approval, because routing them to a person only trains that person to click through.
    The second tier, pause, covers events that are unusual but not yet dangerous, such as a vibration reading trending toward a limit or a fuel blend shifting outside its typical mix. These warrant a brief human check before the system proceeds, giving an operator the chance to apply judgment the model does not yet have.
    The third tier, escalate, covers events that are both high risk and unfamiliar, such as a pressure reading combined with a temperature spike that has no close precedent in the plant’s history. These should stop the process entirely and require a decision from someone with the authority to shut down a line.

    Who should set the threshold
    Where these tiers get drawn matters as much as the framework itself. Threshold setting is frequently handed to the vendor supplying the monitoring software or to a plant’s IT department, both of which understand the technology but not the specific tolerances of a given kiln, mill or line. Operations staff, who know that a particular grinding unit runs hotter under monsoon humidity or that a calciner behaves differently after a refractory reline, are better positioned to calibrate what counts as routine on their own equipment.
    Handing threshold ownership to operations does not remove IT or vendors from the process, but it puts the calibration decision closest to the people who live with its consequences on the floor.

    Signals that oversight is actually working
    A few concrete indicators reveal whether a monitoring setup is functioning as intended or simply providing the appearance of safety. The escalation rate over time is the first: a rate that stays flat or climbs slowly as operations mature is healthy, while one that spikes and then falls sharply often means operators have started overriding the system rather than engaging with it. Time to resolution is the second: escalations that take progressively longer to close suggest fatigue or confusion about ownership, not diligence. The third, and most telling, is how accurate the system’s own uncertainty estimates turn out to be, meaning whether events flagged as high risk actually correlated with real incidents, and whether events waved through stayed incident free. A system whose escalations do not track with actual outcomes trains operators toward the same complacency that unmonitored equipment produces.
    None of this argues against automation in Indian cement manufacturing, where a labor structure built on contract work and a track record of serious accidents make better monitoring an urgent need. It argues for treating human oversight as a design problem with three distinct settings, rather than a single
    dial turned up whenever a plant wants to look safer on paper.

    About the author:
    Dijam Panigrahi, Co-founder and COO, GridRaster, is a spatial computing platform for industrial enterprises and manufacturers.

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