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Bad News in New Year

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This December, we were privileged to organise the ICR Cement Expo and Cement Conference concurrently. The theme of the conference was ‘Infrastructure to drive cement demand’. When we planned the conference a few months back, and narrowed down on to the proposed theme, it seemed perfectly logical that the cement demand would look up in 2017, and it also looked certain that new upcoming infrastructure projects will help drive up cement demand, duly aided by the positive effects of a great monsoon on rural housing demand.

Little did we know that on 8th November, an upheaval will be triggered in the economy in general, and in all such sectors which substantially transact in cash, including cement, and all our expectations based on industry analysis, would be rudely belied.

The sudden shock of demonetisation adversely impacted the trade or retail component of cement off-take, because at the cement counters of retailers all over India, bags are purchased mostly in cash. However, different regions of the country were affected differently in the early days of demonetisation. For example, in the early days post 8th November, southern markets withstood the shock much better than the eastern or northern markets. This discrepancy was mostly caused by the difference in the extent to which the cement makers in the regions pushed cement into the distribution pipeline ignoring the drop in retail off-take.

But as time passed, let’s say in December, the southern markets are drying up as well. Overall, the drop in demand has varied widely from 20 per cent to 70 per cent in different regional markets of India, and insiders say that this trend will continue into January 2017. In spite of brave attempts of cement players, prices have started sliding down as well, and some analysts say that prices have corrected by Rs 15-30/bag across markets. As a result, the stocks of cement companies have already fallen by 15-30 per cent since that fateful November day.

As if this was not enough, the industry has been also hit by increasing fuel prices, which account for at least 40 per cent of its cost structure. Prices of pet coke, imported coal and diesel are going up. According to the data from S&P Global Platts, pet coke and imported coal prices rose between 30 and 37 per cent between July and December. The companies and plants which are located far away from domestic coalfields and/or depended more on pet coke as fuel, are going to be affected sharply. Together with the demand shocker and softening of retail prices, this cost push is going to come as a double whammy for a number of cement companies. Margins of cement companies will get squeezed to various degrees as a result of all this.

Coming back to the theme of our conference, it seems that the government’s infrastructure investments, both in the Central and state sectors, will be the only saviour of the cement industry in the next 12 months. Even so, the infra players and EPC contractors, being volume buyers, have quite a lot of negotiating leverage, and therefore, overall profitability of cement is going to take a hit in relation to retail markets.

End of the day, it does seem that everything has got postponed by a year. Let us now gear up to face a year of tribulations, and look forward to 2018 for recovery of the industry. We would like to underline the fact that the fundamental strengths of the cement industry continue to be enduring in the longer term.

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Concrete

Cement Makers’ Margins To Fall Rs 50-75 Per Tonne Amid West Asia Conflict

Crisil Sees Margins Easing Despite Steady Demand

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Crisil said operating margins of Indian cement manufacturers are expected to decline by Rs 50-75 per tonne (t) this fiscal to Rs 925-950 per t due to higher input costs triggered by the West Asia conflict. The analysis covered 18 cement companies accounting for nearly 90 per cent of India’s domestic cement capacity and noted margins had improved sharply to around Rs 1,000 per t in fiscal 2026.

Crisil noted that the reduction would be driven mainly by higher power and fuel costs, which account for about 30 per cent of total costs, as petcoke and imported coal prices have surged amid geopolitical uncertainties. Freight costs, which account for about a quarter of total costs, are also expected to remain elevated because of higher diesel prices. The impact on profitability is likely to be more pronounced in the first half of the fiscal year before easing commodity prices moderate cost pressures later.

The rating agency said steady domestic demand and strong balance sheets should keep credit profiles stable despite the moderation in margins. Green energy currently accounts for 35-40 per cent of the sector’s total electricity consumption and is expected to partly cushion higher energy costs. Operating cash flows are likely to remain resilient, supported by projected 6-7 per cent growth in cement demand this fiscal.

Crisil highlighted that demand growth will be driven primarily by infrastructure spending, which meets about one-third of sector consumption, and by a nearly 18 per cent higher budgetary allocation for core ministries that should support project execution. Weaker rural housing demand amid pressure on agricultural incomes from a possible below-average monsoon may be offset by improved urban housing demand supported by favourable home-loan rates and a strong pipeline of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban projects. Ongoing capacity additions will keep capital expenditure elevated and may lift net debt to EBITDA to between 1.2 and 1.4 times from around 1.0 time last fiscal, though ratios are expected to remain healthy.

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Concrete

UltraTech Board Approves Rs 50 bn Fundraise Via NCDs

Company to issue half a million debentures for expansion plan

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UltraTech Cement’s board of directors has approved raising Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 bn) through non?convertible debentures issued in rupees.

The finance committee cleared a proposal to issue up to 500,000 fully paid, unsecured, listed, rated, redeemable, rupee?denominated, non?convertible, non?cumulative debentures of Rs 1 lakh each (Rs 0.1 mn each), aggregating to the Rs 5,000 crore programme.

As of June 2026 the firm reported net debt of Rs 15,875 crore (Rs 158.75 bn) and said its capacity expansion projects under execution are backed by capital expenditure of about Rs 17,000 crore (Rs 170 bn) over the next two to two?and?a?half years.

UltraTech spent Rs 9,500 crore (Rs 95 bn) on capital expenditure in financial year 2026 and in April the group crossed 200.1 mn tonnes per annum of domestic grey cement capacity and 205.5 mn tonnes per annum of global capacity.

The chief financial officer indicated the company would take consolidated capacity beyond 242 mn tonnes per annum, with grey cement capacity reaching 212.7 mn tonnes per annum by the end of financial year 2027. He noted the net debt?to?earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ratio stood at 0.87 times as of June 2026 and the company was confident of ending financial year 2027 with the ratio below one time.

In the first quarter of financial year 2026?27 UltraTech’s net profit attributable to owners rose 16.8 per cent year?on?year to Rs 2,599.3 crore (Rs 25.993 bn) and revenue from operations increased 15.9 per cent to Rs 24,648.20 crore (Rs 246.482 bn). The board approval is expected to complement internal cash flows as the company advances its expansion programme.

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Concrete

Lokesh Lays Stone For Rs 31 Billion Cement Unit In Kadapa

Line-2 expansion to make Kadapa a major cement hub

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Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

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