In 2013, consolidation is expected in cement industry in the medium-to-long-term with large M&A activities, says India Ratings agency. The agency expects credit profiles of large cement firms with superior cost position and pan-India presence to remain stable in 2013.
However, smaller companies with unfavourable cost structure and regional concentrations are likely to be under pressure, the agency said.
With credit growth of the housing sector at 13 per cent and that of the commercial real estate sector (CRE) at 4 per cent till November 2012, India Ratings expects the cement demand to grow between 5-8 per cent y-o-y in 2013. Cement production volume in 2012 was mainly driven by a relatively robust activity in housing and commercial real estate.
From September 2010 to March 2012, the average growth in credit to the housing sector was around 15 to 16 per cent in commercial real estate.
Large integrated players, who are among the top five in the country (in terms of production capacity), are likely to have median EBITDA margins in the range of 23 per cent to 24 per cent in 2013, comparable to the FY12 levels. However, smaller or partially-integrated players are likely to exhibit margins ranging from 17 to 19 per cent, lower than the median margins observed for such companies in FY12, the report said.
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