Economy & Market

Rocky road ahead

Published

9 years ago

December 31, 2016

admin

The cement industry is likely to hit the pause button on the backdrop of recent developments like demonetisation, pending legislations like RERA & GST, and rising crude oil prices.

Housing and construction are the sectors most impacted by demonetisation. While market participants aver things will normalise in three-six months, the impact is enough to postpone the much-awaited recovery in cement demand by another year or so. Further, we fear a longer slump in secondary/unorganised real estate markets which drive a large proportion of cement sales (IHB). We also do not believe that a rebound in infrastructure demand will be enough to offset the above-mentioned slump in housing.

Given the impending slowdown in secondary/unorganised real estate markets, the vulnerability is higher for companies which derive bulk of their profitability from higher realisations (higher trade sales).

Cement sector valuations were pricing in a strong recovery pre-November 8, when demonetisation was announced (EV/EBITDA 12-17x 1yr Fwd). Despite recent correction, they still trade at 10-15x 1yr Fwd EV/EBITDA, once the impact of lower demand is factored in. We suspect some more downside as 3QFY17 will represent the confluence of negatives as both volumes and costs get hit.

We expect cement multiples to de-rate further. However, sector leaders (UltraTech/Shree Cement) should continue to command premium to historical averages and will be attractive when multiples approach historical averages (10x or so).

Till October, cement apparent demand had grown by ~5.1% year-on-year. Further, strong monsoons had lifted the possibility of a strong revival in demand, especially from some of the drought-hit regions in Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka. However, post demonetisation, things have taken a turn for the worse.

Our recent channel checks suggest sharp cuts in volumes across regions. The impact is more severe in regions with rural/IHB bias. We hear 25-50 per cent demand declines in north/central and Chhattisgarh. The more urbanised west/south are reporting ~15-30 per cent lower volumes. Parti?cipants maintain that December volumes will be worse hit compared to November. These numbers may be overstated, given extreme prevalent pessimism, but the downside is still significant. Earnings in past two-three quarters were driven by cheap pet coke. Things are likely to flip at the most inopportune time for cement firms, as spiking energy costs begin to sting at around the same time when volumes are likely to be low.

As a result 3QFY17 will be one of the worst quarters for cement companies in recent times. Upcoming elections in five states, including UP and Punjab, will likely further weigh on demand, given that the election code of conduct weighs on government spending. As a result, we remain cautious. Domestic demand growth has registered a double digit de-growth exactly once, in 4QFY01 (-10.4 per cent). This was an outcome driven by a number of factors: drought in four states, slowdown in real estate and the Gujarat earthquake.

With almost a month into the demonetisation exercise, we suspect cement demand could see a repeat of 4QFY01.
Source: HDFC Securities

Mangesh Bhadang, Analyst at brokerage Nirmal Bang, said, ‘We expect demand disruption to push down cement demand recovery by at least a year and hence capacity utilisation will be lower for a longer period than what was expected earlier.’The industry is expected to be impacted not only by the slowdown caused by the cash crunch, but also the impasse over the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and the regulatory legislation for the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act or RERA. The impact, according to the analyst, is phenomenal: from an estimated growth rate of 6 per cent for the current fiscal made in September 2016, it now actually stands at a decline of 1.3 per cent. Fiscal 2018 is likely to see a growth rate of 6.7 per cent, making the years of high growth a thing of the past.

‘We also believe that the golden period of demand growth witnessed between FY06 to FY10 is unlikely to be repeated in the near future,’ Bhadang wrote in his note.

Impact of rising crude oil prices
As if the domestic headwinds were not enough, the industry has also to contend with the end of low input costs, giving the trend of rising crude oil prices globally. ‘Cement companies’ earnings were aided by softening of input prices over the past two years, predominantly coal/pet coke and freight rates through lower diesel prices. We believe that this period of decline in input costs is largely over, as prices of various input products like international coal, pet coke and diesel are on the rise. With demand expected to be low, we believe that cost inflation will test pricing power in the industry,’ Bhadang said.

Cement manufacturing companies in India include Ambuja Cement, ACC, UltraTech, JK Cement, Prism Cement and Shree Cements. India is the second-largest producer of cement in the world, after China.

Capacity utilisation to remain stagnant: ICRA
In the first seven months of FY17, demand growth in the cement sector was already modest at 4.8 per cent. After the note ban, the sector is likely to be affected negatively by disruption to the real estate sector, says the rating agency.

The cement sector is one of the worst hit by demonetisation. Despite limited capacity addition, capacity utilisation of the cement industry is likely to remain stagnant in fiscal year 2017 as demand growth is expected to be weak, rating agency ICRA said in a report. In the first seven months of FY17, demand growth in the cement sector was already modest at 4.8 per cent and after the note ban, is likely to be affected negatively by disruption to the real estate sector.

The cement sector is one of the worst hit by demonetisation; volumes have been dented severely and a pick-up in consumption may not happen anytime soon. Hence, the outlook for the second half of FY17 is unlikely to be as bright as anticipated earlier by many analysts.

Uncharted Territory
Uncertainty remains on demand, pricing and margins, says Vivek Maheshwari, Investment Analyst.

The Indian cement sector is on a shaky foundation and there are multiple uncertainties as we start the seasonally strong period (Jan-May) of 2017.

Demonetisation has impacted demand, although flattish production volume (year-on-year) in November 2016 is a positive. The industry is hopeful of a recovery through 2017, though monthly trends could be quite volatile. Demonetisation has, however, impacted prices, which are down 1-5 per cent month-on-month in December 16, as per our channel checks. The timing of demonetisation is quite inappropriate for the industry, as energy costs (pet coke, coal and diesel) have been steadily trending up. We expect heightened volatility in margins ahead, as several variables are at play and we are negative on all the stocks except UltraTech which is our only relative pick.

Concerns on demand
Cement volumes across regions have been impacted, particularly in December 16. While liquidity issues will ease gradually, the channel is still concerned on demand due to factors like impact on end-user industry and supply-chain issues in case of ancillary industries (sand, aggre?gates, etc.) and hence, demand trend may be weak. The government’s thrust on social housing and infrastructure should support cement demand but we are unsure if this could fully offset the impact.

Pricing pressures
Demand pressures may deter the cement industry from increasing prices significantly, which is typically expected during 1H-2017 due to seasonality. While the industry has shown strong discipline in the past few quarters, a potentially weak demand trend may change dynamics and result in pricing pressures. Prices have actually declined by 1-5 per cent across regions, though the industry would attempt to reverse these in the coming months.

High volatility in margins ahead
For example, pet coke prices are up 140 per cent from the bottom, while imported coal prices are up 79 per cent and rupee depreciation further exacerbates the impact; diesel prices are also up 31 per cent from the recent lows. This would impact sector margins in the near term and would also delay the margin recovery by a few quarters.

Negative view stays
This has taken multiples to above-historical averages, also partially on expectations of a strong recovery in margins, which we believe are at risk in the current context, as volumes are weak, pricing power is impaired, and costs are rising.

A majority of cement demand (55-65 per cent) comes from the housing sector. It is important to see how the sector is going to fare in 2017. The end of 2017 is most likely to see the initiation of a robust and sustainable growth trajectory for India’s real estate industry and will be recognised as the base for the future growth of this sector, says Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd.

In the first week of November 2016 the overall positive sentiment was attributed to a host of factors including the political stability, regulatory environment, enhanced infrastructure, strong investments, approval to the GST bill, and amendments to REITs.

Just when the industry was was gearing up to meet the deadlines set by the government for Real Estate (Real Estate Regulation & Development Act Act 2016 (RERA) and Goods and Services Tax (GST),) it received a jolt in the form of demonetisation of the INR 500 and 1000 currency notes with immediate effect.

Another imminent change that will impact the sector in the days to come is the partial implementation of RERA. RERA, once implemented, will increase transparency, which in turn will bring back buyer confidence. Developers, on the other hand, will have to adjust to the new environment and more specifically, they have to change their business model whilst adhering to stricter compliance norms.

The impact of demonetisation is a transient one and the economy will undergo structural changes for the first three quarters of 2017. The industry awaits the implementation of policy reforms like RERA & GST, medium term impact of demonetisation and listing of REIT. During this phase, enterprises are expected to streamline their business processes and implement international best practices to adhere to the upcoming changed business environment. There will be a greater influence of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) that will help create jobs and revitalise growth within the sector. Overall, institutional participation-both domestic and global markets-will help the sector in getting high quantum of funds at competitive rates. In view of the various procedural changes adopted by the government, it is also expected to be an important facilitator in bringing back stability within the real estate sector.

The end of 2017 is most likely to see the initiation of a robust and sustainable growth trajectory for India’s real estate industry and will be recognised as the base for the future growth of this sector.

Concrete

Cement Makers Reaffirm Commitment to Sustainable Growth

Published

1 week ago

June 5, 2026

admin

World Environment Day spotlight on innovation and circularity

On World Environment Day, the Indian cement industry reiterated its commitment to supporting India’s climate ambitions through sustainable manufacturing, resource efficiency and the adoption of cleaner technologies.

The Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) said the sector remains aligned with the Government of India’s Net Zero commitments and is accelerating efforts to reduce its environmental footprint while supporting the country’s infrastructure and development agenda.

Parth Jindal, President, CMA and Managing Director, JSW Cement, said the industry is increasingly adopting cleaner technologies, improving energy efficiency and expanding the use of alternative fuels and raw materials. He also highlighted the growing importance of circular economy practices, where industrial by-products and waste streams from one sector are utilised as resources in another.

“The Indian Cement Industry is aligned to the Government’s commitments on carbon mitigation and is accelerating the adoption of cleaner technologies, resource efficiency and circular economy practices while actively exploring the potential of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) as a critical pathway for deep decarbonisation,” said Jindal.

He added that coprocessing industrial waste and by-products helps conserve natural resources, reduce disposal requirements and lower the environmental footprint across multiple sectors.

According to Jindal, sustainability is no longer limited to manufacturing processes but is increasingly influencing investment decisions, innovation strategies and long-term growth plans within the industry.

Echoing similar views, Dr Raghavpat Singhania, Vice President, CMA and Managing Director, JK Cement, said sustainable development extends beyond emissions reduction and must also focus on responsible resource utilisation and waste minimisation.

“Sustainability in the built environment cannot be measured by emissions alone. It is equally about how efficiently we use resources, how effectively we minimise waste and how responsibly we create the infrastructure that will serve future generations,” said Singhania.

He noted that the cement industry is advancing its sustainability agenda through greater resource efficiency, increased circularity, technological innovation and continuous improvements in manufacturing practices. As a key contributor to India’s infrastructure development, the sector has a critical role to play in balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility.

On the occasion of World Environment Day, industry leaders reaffirmed their commitment to supporting India’s climate goals while delivering the materials required for resilient, durable and sustainable infrastructure.

Concrete

Building a Greener Future Together

Published

1 week ago

June 4, 2026

admin

Environmental sustainability requires immediate action, not just long-term commitments and discussions. Recycling, circular economy practices, and technology-driven waste management can help industries reduce environmental impact while supporting sustainable growth.

Author: Jignesh Kundaria, Director and CEO, Fornnax Technology

World Environment Day serves as an important reminder that environmental sustainability can no longer remain confined to discussions, reports, or long-term commitments. The environmental challenges facing the world today demand immediate, measurable, and collective action. Across industries and communities, waste generation continues to outpace our ability to process it responsibly, placing increasing pressure on ecosystems, natural resources, public health, and the well-being of future generations.

One of the most significant shifts required today is a change in how society perceives waste. Rather than being viewed as a material to be discarded, waste must be recognised as a valuable resource that can contribute to both economic growth and environmental protection when managed through the right technologies and systems. This mindset forms the foundation of the circular economy model that countries across the world are increasingly adopting to reduce landfill dependence, recover valuable materials, and create more sustainable industrial ecosystems.

India has made meaningful progress in strengthening awareness around sustainability, recycling, and environmental responsibility over the past decade. Significant efforts are being made to formalise the recycling sector through improved infrastructure, technology adoption, policy implementation, and broader stakeholder participation. These developments are creating a stronger foundation for responsible waste management and resource recovery across the country.

However, achieving long-term environmental impact requires collaboration from all stakeholders. Industries, policymakers, technology providers, and communities must work together with greater accountability to strengthen recycling ecosystems, encourage responsible waste management practices, and create sustainable outcomes through consistent execution rather than temporary interventions.

As someone closely associated with the recycling industry, I firmly believe that technology will play a decisive role in addressing future environmental challenges. Advanced recycling systems have the potential to recover valuable resources, reduce pollution, minimise landfill burdens, and conserve energy, creating a more sustainable future for generations to come. This belief is deeply reflected in Fornnax’s motto, “Committed to Create a Green Future,” which embodies our commitment to building long-term environmental value through innovation and responsible action.

At the same time, technology alone cannot deliver meaningful change. Real progress requires intent, awareness, participation, and a shared sense of responsibility. Sustainable development can only be achieved when innovation is supported by collective action and a genuine commitment to environmental stewardship.

On this World Environment Day, let us move beyond conversations and take meaningful steps towards creating a cleaner, greener, and more sustainable planet. By embracing innovation, strengthening recycling ecosystems, and acting responsibly today, we can create lasting environmental impact and secure a better future for generations to come.

Concrete

Dalmia Bharat Acquires Jaiprakash Associates Cement Assets for ₹2,850 Crore

Published

3 weeks ago

May 25, 2026

admin

Dalmia Cement executed a Business Transfer Agreement with Jaiprakash Associates and Adani Infra, to acquire 5.2 MnTPA of cement capacity across Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

Dalmia Cement (Bharat) announced on May 22, 2026 that it had signed a Business Transfer Agreement with Jaiprakash Associates Limited and Adani Infra (India) Limited for the acquisition of cement plants located at Rewa in Madhya Pradesh and Churk, Chunar and Sadwa in Uttar Pradesh. The deal was struck at an enterprise value of ₹2,850 crore and is expected to close within two weeks of execution.

The acquired assets from Jaiprakash Associates include 5.2 MnTPA of cement capacity and 3.3 MnTPA of clinker capacity. The package also covers 99 MW of thermal power capacity and railway sidings at Rewa, Chunar, and a common siding at Churk. This infrastructure gives the acquisition immediate operational utility beyond just production tonnage.

The transaction has a long backstory. Dalmia Cement had originally entered into a framework agreement with Jaiprakash Associates in December 2022, covering the sale of these business assets along with a long-term clinker supply arrangement. However, before the deal could be completed, Jaiprakash Associates was admitted to insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. The earlier agreements could not be consummated as a result.

In an official statement, Puneet Dalmia, Managing Director & CEO, Dalmia Bharat, said, “I am very excited about addition of these assets in our portfolio. This serves as a great strategic fit for Dalmia. It helps us move forward in our journey to be a pan India player and provide a strong head start to serve the high potential markets in Central region. I am optimistic that the expansion potential of these assets along with close proximity with Dalmia’s captive mines will help us create a capacity hub for the future”.

Following the approval of Adani Group’s resolution plan for Jaiprakash Associates under the IBC framework, Dalmia approached the new management to revive discussions. The fresh Business Transfer Agreement was executed to settle all pending disputes, legal proceedings, and arbitration matters arising from the original framework agreement with Jaiprakash Associates.

Expanding market reach

Dalmia added, “Our familiarity with these assets under the earlier tolling arrangement gives us a deep understanding of the facilities and helps us establish strong connect with channel partners and vendors. We believe that this will help us in faster ramp up of capacities and quicker inroads into the market. As we look forward, I am very confident that we will be able to leverage the strengths of Dalmia to operate these assets in a manner where we can maximise value creation for all our stakeholders.”

With the addition of these plants, Dalmia Bharat’s total installed cement capacity will rise to 54.7 MnTPA upon consummation. The company has further expansion projects underway at Belgaum, Pune, and Kadapa, which are expected to take overall capacity to 66.7 MnTPA by Q2 to Q3 FY28.

The Central India location of the Jaiprakash Associates plants gives Dalmia Bharat faster access to markets in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh than a greenfield build would have allowed. The company also cited debottlenecking and brownfield expansion as near-term opportunities at the acquired sites. Dalmia Bharat said the assets were expected to contribute positively to EBITDA and overall returns, given the pricing environment in the region and the company’s cost structure.