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A volatile market leads to hedging of price

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Jatin Shah, Chief Technical Officer and Managing Director, TDD, Colliers India, discusses the various aspects of the construction business that are getting affected by the fluctuations in cement prices and input costs.

How has the rise in cement and building materials costs impacted your business?
Cement price as per last report has risen by about 9 per cent in October 2022 compared to March 2022. Other components like steel, aluminium, copper etc., which are significant contributors
also remain volatile. The construction cost has gone up due to various factors like labour cost and cost of transport coupled with material
price volatility. This remains a concern for the developer, contractors and will continue to impact the industry.

As the costs are expected to remain volatile for a few more months, is there any change in your strategy or approach towards the launch of new projects?
The volatile market will impact developers.
The launch of projects by grade A developers will not be impacted as these developers do command a premium. However, the projects in tier II cities and grade B developers will witness a restraint unless there is some stability in the market, since they operate on thin margins. Apart from on-going Russian-Ukraine conditions, we may observe challenges due to a new surge in Covid-19 infections in some countries.

Tell us about the impact on the timely delivery of developer projects.
Developers (grade A) will continue to deliver their projects. Thanks to RERA and incremental involvement of end buyers and investment from funds, projects will be delivered with only small delays. The impact, as mentioned earlier, will mostly be on the grade B developers or the projects planned in tier II cities where possibly a wait and watch policy may happen.
How has consumer behaviour changed with a change in property costs? Do you expect the demand to decrease?
The residential sector has seen a good run
since the pandemic. Sales momentum has remained intact despite the rise in construction costs and property prices, led by robust demand for home ownership and schemes offered by developers during the festive season. However, led by increased property prices and rise in interest rates, we might see some moderation in demand in the short term. The demand might see a drop in affordable and mid-segment, while the demand for the luxury segment is expected to remain firm.

What is the major challenge that you have come across with the rising costs and how are you combating the same?
A volatile market leads to hedging of prices.
We recommend the developers to remain watchful for bulk procurement and approach projects with just-in-time approach, tweak contracts to bring in more materials linked to basic prices and take contractors into confidence. The transparency between developer and contractors at this stage will insulate both from the issues of fluctuating prices. Additionally, the selection of material, of suppliers and vendors should be reviewed holistically and not only be driven by the ‘lowest price’ concept.

How do you envision the future of real estate development and consumer behaviour with the rising cost of cement and other construction materials?
Real estate investments will continue to remain in focus and a preferred investment vehicle. Focus may shift to investments in grade A assets or projects by grade A developers where end buyer / user has the confidence on projects being
completed in time and with quality. While developers are expected to step ahead with caution, consumers might also adopt a wait and watch approach for decision making.

-Kanika Mathur

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Concrete

Jefferies’ Optimism Fuels Cement Stock Rally

The industry is aiming price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

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Cement stocks surged over 5% on Monday, driven by Jefferies’ positive outlook on demand recovery, supported by increased government capital expenditure and favourable price trends.

JK Cement led the rally with a 5.3% jump, while UltraTech Cement rose 3.82%, making it the top performer on the Nifty 50. Dalmia Bharat and Grasim Industries gained over 3% each, with Shree Cement and Ambuja Cement adding 2.77% and 1.32%, respectively.

“Cement stocks have been consolidating without significant upward movement for over a year,” noted Vikas Jain, head of research at Reliance Securities. “The Jefferies report with positive price feedback prompted a revaluation of these stocks today.”

According to Jefferies, cement prices were stable in November, with earlier declines bottoming out. The industry is now targeting price hikes of Rs 10-15 per bag in December.

The brokerage highlighted moderate demand growth in October and November, with recovery expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter, supported by a revival in government infrastructure spending.
Analysts are optimistic about a stronger recovery in the latter half of FY25, driven by anticipated increases in government investments in infrastructure projects.
(ET)

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Concrete

Steel Ministry Proposes 25% Safeguard Duty on Steel Imports

The duty aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports.

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The Ministry of Steel has proposed a 25% safeguard duty on certain steel imports to address concerns raised by domestic producers. The proposal emerged during a meeting between Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi, attended by senior officials and executives from leading steel companies like SAIL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and AMNS India.

Following the meeting, Goyal highlighted on X the importance of steel and metallurgical coke industries in India’s development, emphasising discussions on boosting production, improving quality, and enhancing global competitiveness. Kumaraswamy echoed the sentiment, pledging collaboration between ministries to create a business-friendly environment for domestic steelmakers.

The safeguard duty proposal aims to counter the impact of rising low-cost steel imports, particularly from free trade agreement (FTA) nations. Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik noted that 62% of steel imports currently enter at zero duty under FTAs, with imports rising to 5.51 million tonnes (MT) during April-September 2024-25, compared to 3.66 MT in the same period last year. Imports from China surged significantly, reaching 1.85 MT, up from 1.02 MT a year ago.

Industry experts, including think tank GTRI, have raised concerns about FTAs, highlighting cases where foreign producers partner with Indian firms to re-import steel at concessional rates. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava also pointed to challenges like port delays and regulatory hurdles, which strain over 10,000 steel user units in India.

The government’s proposal reflects its commitment to supporting the domestic steel industry while addressing trade imbalances and promoting a self-reliant manufacturing sector.

(ET)

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India Imposes Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Panel Aluminium Frames

Move boosts domestic aluminium industry, curbs low-cost imports

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The Indian government has introduced anti-dumping duties on anodized aluminium frames for solar panels and modules imported from China, a move hailed by the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) as a significant step toward fostering a self-reliant aluminium sector.

The duties, effective for five years, aim to counter the influx of low-cost imports that have hindered domestic manufacturing. According to the Ministry of Finance, Chinese dumping has limited India’s ability to develop local production capabilities.

Ahead of Budget 2025, the aluminium industry has urged the government to introduce stronger trade protections. Key demands include raising import duties on primary and downstream aluminium products from 7.5% to 10% and imposing a uniform 7.5% duty on aluminium scrap to curb the influx of low-quality imports.

India’s heavy reliance on aluminium imports, which now account for 54% of the country’s demand, has resulted in an annual foreign exchange outflow of Rupees 562.91 billion. Scrap imports, doubling over the last decade, have surged to 1,825 KT in FY25, primarily sourced from China, the Middle East, the US, and the UK.

The AAI noted that while advanced economies like the US and China impose strict tariffs and restrictions to protect their aluminium industries, India has become the largest importer of aluminium scrap globally. This trend undermines local producers, who are urging robust measures to enhance the domestic aluminium ecosystem.

With India’s aluminium demand projected to reach 10 million tonnes by 2030, industry leaders emphasize the need for stronger policies to support local production and drive investments in capacity expansion. The anti-dumping duties on solar panel components, they say, are a vital first step in building a sustainable and competitive aluminium sector.

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