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Most counter-intuitive sector in India?

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Over the past decade, the cement industry has witnessed a decline in utilisation rates, despite which, cement prices have held up fairly well. FY19 is likely to end with near double-digit demand growth, which will also take up utilisation. This much-anticipated event, however, has been a big disappointer as prices did not see any benefit and in fact, unit Ebitda margins contracted in FY19. Lower energy prices are a relief but cement prices are the key, and uncertainty prevails here, which is quite counter-intuitive in the context of rising utilisation rates.

Government focus drove demand in FY19

  • Over the past several years, a weak macro weighed on cement demand which reported growth of -5 per cent over FY11-18 (FY18 growth of 8.5 per cent is off a very low base).
  • FY19 saw a trend reversal as demand is expected to be 9 per cent to 10 per cent, the fastest growth in almost a decade.
  • Industry feedback indicates FY19 growth has primarily come from government led infrastructure and a boost from pre-election spending (states as well as centre).
  • Across regions, the south and east have witnessed strong growth while the west faces challenges.
  • Momentum should continue and we build-in 7 per cent growth for FY20, despite a tough base.

Utilisation rates to move up:

  • Supply additions continued and rose 0.5 per cent YoY but trailed incremental demand in FY19 which drove up industry utilisation by around 0.3 YoY to 69 per cent in FY19.
  • Despite relatively lower utilisation than average, several players continue to add capacity; we forecast a 4.5 per cent CAGR for capacity over FY18-21CL.
  • However, with demand growth ahead of supply, industry utilisation rates should see an up-trend, which we forecast to average 73 per cent by FY21.
  • There would however be regional disparity with the south witnessing the lowest absolute utilisation while the north and central should see the strongest absolute level.

Energy cost advantage but cement pricing holds the key:

  • Energy prices exerted severe pressure during most of 2018 but have started to ease. For example, petcoke prices are down 25 per cent + and diesel prices are down +20 per cent from peak.
  • The benefit of these along with higher axle load should be visible during 2019.
  • The concern however is on cement pricing which remained weak for most of 2018. For FY19 we estimate a 1 per cent rise on a blended basis, well below cost inflation.
  • This is because of a market share fight among the large and the mid-sized players, which resulted in a 0.12 per cent YoY decline in the FY19 unit Ebitda despite a better utilisation rate.
  • With UltraTech likely to ramp-up its acquired capacity, Shree’s foray into the south and west, Ramco’s expansion in the east and Dalmia’s foray into the west, concern remains.
  • For FY20, we still forecast a sector unit Ebitda of 890x/t, +14 per cent as energy prices cool off, and we also build-in around a 4 per cent YoY rise in cement pricing.

We turn more cautious on the sector

  • While an energy price correction should help, ‘margin accretive’ cement price hikes are a must for sector performance.
  • We lower our cement price assumptions to account for lower realisation in 3QFY19 and also for slightly moderate hikes thereafter.
  • We cut the EPS estimates for our coverage by 3 per cent to 15 per cent for large firms and also build-in the Binani acquisition for UltraTech.

Pricing continues to disappoint, despite robust demand and cost pressure

  • Pricing has disappointed so far in FY19 in the context of strong demand, rising industry utilisation rates and energy price pressures.
  • While cement prices increased slightly, these trailed unit costs exerting margin pressures.
  • The key issue has been fight for market share as demand growth has been strong along with a slight mix change as the share of institutional sale rose.
  • Strong double digit demand growth and cost pressures were expected to justify an industry-wide price increase, which was also reflected across the earnings conference calls post the 3QFY19 results.
  • However, as per our channel checks, prices did rise in some markets during 3QFY19 but most of the gains reversed as hikes did not sustain – channel attributed this also to price-led competition.
  • The cement prices have largely remained flat in the CY18, with South and North seeing a decline and other regions witnessing marginal price hikes.
  • As we enter 4QFY19, the strongest quarter seasonally for cement due to peak construction activity, pricing should pick-up but rationality is a must.

About the authors:
Vivek Maheshwari, Bhavesh Pravin Shah and Jithin John of CLSA.
We would like to thank Evalueserve for its help in preparing the research reports. Bhavik Mehta (IT); Kamal Verma (Banking & Financial Services); Kushal Shah (Midcaps), Mihir Manohar (Capital Goods, Utilities, Power); and Suraj Yadav (Cement, Oil & Gas) provide research support services to CLSA.

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

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Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

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