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Cement Sector Growth Slows Down

Muted demand lowers FY25 growth forecast

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The Indian cement industry’s growth forecast for FY25 has been revised down to 4-5% (445-450 MT), primarily due to sluggish construction activity in the housing and infrastructure sectors, according to ICRA. The initial estimate in July was 7-8%, expecting demand to rise in H2, but a slower-than-expected post-election recovery has affected projections.

Key Drivers and Challenges

Muted Volumes: Cement volumes grew just 2% YoY to 212 MT in H1 FY25, impacted by election-related slowdowns and heavy monsoon rains.
Rural Demand: A robust rabi season backed by healthy monsoons and strong farm cash flows is expected to improve rural housing demand in H2.
Urban and Infrastructure Boost: Urban housing demand remains strong, while increased government capital spending in H2 FY25 (from ?4 lakh crore in H1 to meet a full-year target of ?11.1 lakh crore) should spur infrastructure activity and cement demand.
Pricing and Margins

Cement prices fell 10% YoY to ?330 per bag in H1 FY25 due to oversupply and subdued demand, affecting revenue realisation.
Operating profit margins dropped to 12% in Q2 FY25, a 375 bps decline YoY, despite reduced coal and pet coke costs (down 38% and 13% YoY, respectively).
Capacity Expansion

The industry is expected to add 70-75 MT capacity during FY25-26, with 33-37 MT as clinker capacity.
Regional Growth: Eastern and southern regions will lead capacity additions, contributing 38-40 MT evenly split over two years.
Utilisation: Capacity utilisation is projected to rise slightly to 71% in FY25 from 70% in FY24.
Outlook
The cement sector is poised for a recovery in H2 FY25, driven by rural and urban housing demand and higher government spending. However, pricing pressures and oversupply remain challenges. Total installed capacity stands at 690 MT, with moderate utilisation rates indicating room for demand-driven growth.

Concrete

Steelmakers’ Debt Rises 25% Amid Capex Drive

The debt levels of steelmakers will rise by more than Rs 40,000 crore this fiscal year

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Domestic steelmakers are expected to see a significant rise in their net leverage to over 3x this fiscal year, driven by a 25% increase in debt due to ongoing capital expenditure (capex) projects. According to a report by Crisil Ratings, the debt levels of major steelmakers will rise by more than Rs 40,000 crore this fiscal year, marking a return to levels seen in fiscal 2020. This increase in debt is largely due to the ongoing capex cycle, with Rs 70,000 crore planned for the current and next fiscal years, aimed at expanding steelmaking capacity by 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by fiscal 2027.

While the rise in debt may strain financial metrics, steelmakers are expected to improve efficiency and increase capacity, boosting long-term growth. However, profitability has come under pressure due to falling steel prices and rising imports. Steel prices are expected to fall by 10% this fiscal year, driven by increasing imports, especially from China. Despite an increase in demand and volume, lower realizations are expected to reduce operating profit margins.

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Concrete

NCB Signs MoUs for Decarbonisation in Cement Industry

One MoU was signed between NCB and GCCA India

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The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB), under the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, has signed two landmark Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) to advance decarbonisation and technological innovation in the Indian cement industry. The MoUs were signed during the 18th NCB International Conference and Exhibition on Cement and Concrete, held at Yashobhoomi, IICC Dwarka.

One MoU was signed between NCB and the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) India to promote research on decarbonization efforts within India’s cement sector, aiming for a “Net Zero” industry by 2070.

The second MoU, signed with AIC-Plasmatech Innovation Foundation, focuses on exploring the application of Thermal Plasma Torch Technology in cement production, which could enhance the sustainability and efficiency of the manufacturing process.

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Concrete

MPCB Bans New Ready-Mix Concrete Plants in MMR

Existing plants are required to implement anti-dust measures

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In response to worsening air quality, the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB) has announced a ban on the establishment of new ready-mix concrete (RMC) plants within the municipal corporation limits of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Existing plants are required to implement anti-dust measures and conduct water sprinkling on vehicle tyres over the next three months.

Failure to comply with these new regulations could result in the seizure of bank guarantee deposits and potential plant closures, MPCB officials warned.

MPCB’s directives also stipulate that new captive RMC plants outside municipal areas must allocate at least 10% of their land for plant construction and enclose the site with tin or similar materials. Non-compliance will be met with a bank guarantee of Rs 10 lakh.

New commercial RMC plants must maintain a 500-meter buffer zone from populated areas and ensure compliance with environmental standards. All plants must also monitor air quality at their boundaries.

MPCB has stressed the importance of collaborating with civic authorities in MMR to curb pollution and maintain air quality standards.

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