The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), launched in 2005, is a key element of the European Union’s climate change strategy and remains the world’s largest carbon market. Under the system, producers within the EU are required to offset their CO2 emissions by purchasing allowances from the EU ETS. This has led some companies to relocate their operations to regions with less stringent emissions regulations in order to reduce costs, a phenomenon known as ‘carbon leakage’. To counter this, the EU introduced a ‘carbon levy’ on imported goods, applying it to products from countries with lower emissions standards than those of the EU to prevent highly emission-intensive imports.

Building on this, the European Commission has proposed the world’s first ‘carbon border tax’, aimed at imports of carbon-intensive products such as steel, hydrogen, cement, fertilisers, and aluminium, in line with the EU’s climate goals. This tax is based on the EU’s domestic emissions regulations and includes fees for exceeding emissions limits. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which targets these sectors, is expected to affect around 4% of the EU’s total imports by value.

Indian steel exports to Europe, which account for over 20% of India’s total steel exports in the first half of FY25, may be significantly impacted. Italy, Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom are among the primary destinations. Indian steel production emits 2.6 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel, higher than the global average of 1.85 tonnes, giving the EU a rationale for imposing higher duties on Indian products. According to ICRA, the CBAM framework could affect 15-40% of India’s steel exports to Europe, with the impact expected to be felt from 2026 to 2034. Notably, the USA and Singapore are also likely to introduce similar policies.