Hetal Gandhi, Director – Research, and Koustav Mazumdar, Associate Director, CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics discuss the increased budget outlay for infrastructure to boost cement demand and to rapidly develop the east and central regions of the country.
The domestic cement industry has been in high demand over the past fiscal or so. A rush of government spending on infrastructure has boosted consumption of this key commodity. Demand for cement increased ~8 per cent in fiscal 2022, followed by ~11 per cent growth in the first 10 months of this fiscal. Sustained demand momentum in the last quarter of the current fiscal is expected to peg demand growth at 11 per cent for the full fiscal on a high base of the previous fiscal. The infra-focused budget, presented on February 1, will ensure the momentum continues into the next fiscal. A ~33 per cent rise in budgeted capital expenditure to Rs 10 lakh crore for fiscal 2024, and weighty allocations to infrastructure sectors such as roads and affordable housing augur well for cement demand, which is projected to rise 7-9 per cent to ~425 million tonnes in the fiscal.
The GDP Correlation Rise in cement demand correlates with gross domestic product (GDP) growth as economic development requires heavy investments in infrastructure such as housing, roads, ports, etc. The cement demand growth to GDP growth multiplier (i.e., cement demand growth divided by GDP growth in the same year) witnessed an unprecedented drop in fiscals 2020 and 2021, because of the pandemic-caused economic slowdown, but recovered rapidly in fiscal 2022, with cement demand and GDP rebounding at a similar rate. This fiscal, the multiplier is expected to pick up pace as demand growth accelerates and GDP growth moderates on a high base. We expect the multiplier to remain >1, but to decrease marginally next fiscal, as cement demand increase moderates to 7-9 per cent on a favourable base, while GDP growth slackens to ~6 per cent because of global economic slowdown, transmission of interest rate hikes to consumers (leading to weakening industrial activity), and as the catch-up in contact-based services fades. Budget announcements indicate a robust ~20 per cent increase in capital outlay for ~13 key construction-heavy ministries for fiscal 2024. Higher allocation to cement-heavy sectors, accelerated infra execution ahead of elections, and traction in rural affordable housing are expected to lead to 7-9 per cent rise in demand next fiscal on a high base of two consecutive years. This translates to ~30 per cent rise when compared with the pre-pandemic levels and a 9-10 per cent CAGR between fiscals 2022 and 2024. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) and the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) have received 25 per cent and 14 per cent more allocation, respectively, in fiscal 2024BE against fiscal 2023RE, despite overachieving fiscal 2023BE targets by ~10 per cent and ~6 per cent, respectively. The allocation for Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), which includes urban and rural housing, increased 3.2 per cent for fiscal 2024 against fiscal 2023RE. Compared with fiscal 2023BE, however, the revised estimate has seen ~60.7 per cent increase to Rs 0.79 lakh crore. Allocation under the PMAY-Gramin scheme had been increased last fiscal, with the total expenditure rising to Rs 0.48 lakh crore after an initial allocation of only Rs 0.2 lakh crore in the 2022-23 budget. The government approved an additional Rs 0.18 lakh crore in November 2022, which will also aid demand growth in the first half of the upcoming fiscal. However, allocation under PMAY-Urban is set to decline this fiscal as it draws to a close with over 1.08 crore units either completed or nearing completion, out of the sanctioned 1.23 crore units. Finally, though there is no change in the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) allocation (at Rs 19,000 crore for the second consecutive year), there is no reduction in expenditure either. Also, 50 additional airports, heliports, waterdromes and advanced landing grounds have been proposed for improving regional air connectivity. All of this will boost the already sturdy demand for cement in the upcoming fiscal. As the capital outlay indicates, infrastructure will remain the key demand driver for the cement sector, led by government spending on roads, housing, urban infra, etc. Rural housing demand is expected to grow at a healthy rate as well on the low base of last fiscal, increased allocation under PMAY-G, and healthy rural income owing to increase in crop prices. However, the weather and monsoon will bear watching. On the other hand, urban housing demand is expected to moderate with the PMAY-U scheme coming to a closure, and a downward slide in real estate due to surging interest rates and high capital values. The industrial/commercial segment will continue to support demand growth amid capital expenditure push by large players, implementation of the production-linked incentive scheme, return to office/hybrid model of working, and overall economic recovery.
The Regional Landscape Higher traction under PMAY-G, NHAI, and PMGSY will drive demand in the high-growth east and central regions. Around 3.4 million units are under construction in these regions as of January 2023 under the PMAY-G scheme. Region-wise, demand growth is likely to be sharper in central and eastern regions, which account for ~80 per cent of PMAY-G construction and ~41 per cent of NHAI target set for fiscals 2020-2024. A favourable base, low per-capita cement consumption, and a big housing shortage will propel demand and keep utilisation levels stable in these regions, given aggressive capacity additions planned there. South is lined up to follow central and east regions thanks to higher targets under Bharatmala Pariyojana, sharper execution under PMAY-Urban, and boost from realty and irrigation projects. North India is expected to witness moderate growth on a high base, but various infrastructure projects — roads, metros, dedicated freight corridors, etc — and pick-up in real estate will support growth in the region. In the west, demand is projected to grow at a moderate rate in the near term after rebounding sharply last fiscal. This region has various high-budget infra projects under execution, such as the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train, trans-harbour link, and metro projects in Mumbai. However, north, south and west, comprising industrialised states, already have the highest per-capita cement consumption, which will limit their demand growth potential and will lag the other two regions in the future.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Hetal Gandhi, Director – Research, CRISIL Limited, is managing a team of over 20 analysts to track developments across infra and consumption space to know India’s role in this journey. Koustav Mazumdar, Associate Director – Metals, Metallurgical Coal, Cement and Hydrogen, CRISIL Limited.
The cost of construction in India increased by 11% over the past year, primarily driven by a 25% rise in labour expenses, according to Colliers India. While prices of key materials like cement dropped by 15% and steel saw a marginal 1% decrease, the surge in labour costs stretched construction budgets across sectors.
“Labour, which constitutes over a quarter of construction costs, has seen significant inflation due to the demand for skilled workers and associated training and compliance costs,” said Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India.
The residential segment experienced the sharpest cost escalation due to a growing focus on quality construction and demand for gated communities. Meanwhile, commercial and industrial real estate remained resilient, with 37 million square feet of office space and 22 million square feet of warehousing space completed in the first nine months of 2024.
“Despite rising costs, investments in automation and training are helping developers address manpower challenges and streamline project timelines,” said Vimal Nadar, senior director at Colliers India.
With labour costs continuing to influence overall construction expenses, developers are exploring strategies to optimize operations and mitigate rising costs.
Swiss Steel has announced plans to cut 800 jobs as part of a restructuring effort, triggered by weak demand in the global steel market. The company, a major player in the European steel industry, cited an ongoing slowdown in demand as the primary reason behind the workforce reduction. These job cuts are expected to impact various departments across its operations, including production and administrative functions.
The steel industry has been facing significant challenges due to reduced demand from key sectors such as construction and automotive manufacturing. Additionally, the broader economic slowdown in Europe, coupled with rising energy costs, has further strained the profitability of steel producers like Swiss Steel. In response to these conditions, the company has decided to streamline its operations to ensure long-term sustainability.
Swiss Steel’s decision to cut jobs is part of a broader trend in the steel industry, where companies are adjusting to volatile market conditions. The move is aimed at reducing operational costs and improving efficiency, but it highlights the continuing pressures faced by the manufacturing sector amid uncertain global economic conditions.
The layoffs are expected to occur across Swiss Steel’s production facilities and corporate offices, as the company focuses on consolidating its workforce. Despite these cuts, Swiss Steel plans to continue its efforts to innovate and adapt to market demands, with an emphasis on high-value, specialty steel products.
UltraTech Cement, the Aditya Birla Group’s flagship company, has announced plans to raise up to Rs 3,000 crore through the private placement of non-convertible debentures (NCDs) in one or more tranches. The move aims to strengthen the company’s financial position amid increasing competition in the cement sector.
UltraTech’s finance committee has approved the issuance of rupee-denominated, unsecured, redeemable, and listed NCDs. The company has experienced strong stock performance, with its share price rising 22% over the past year, boosting its market capitalization to approximately Rs 3.1 lakh crore.
For Q2 FY2025, UltraTech reported a 36% year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit, dropping to Rs 825 crore, below analyst expectations. Revenue for the quarter also fell 2% YoY to Rs 15,635 crore, and EBITDA margins contracted by 300 basis points. Despite this, the company saw a 3% increase in domestic sales volume, supported by lower energy costs.
In a strategic move, UltraTech invested Rs 3,954 crore for a 32.7% equity stake in India Cements, further solidifying its position in South India. UltraTech holds an 11% market share in the region, while competitor Adani holds 6%. UltraTech also secured $500 million through a sustainability-linked loan, underscoring its focus on sustainable growth driven by infrastructure and housing demand.