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Cement: Weakened Demand to Impact Capacity Expansion, Profitability

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The sharp decline in demand in FY2021 will delay capacity addition and impact profitability in the cement sector in the medium-term, warns a CRISIL report.

The economic woes caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are likely to result in a marked decline in demand for cement in the current financial year, a report has warned.

The report, Cement Cracks, by CRISIL has warned of a 10-15 decline in the demand for cement in 2020-21 fiscal owing to the rollout of the nationwide lockdown and other social distancing measures. Demand is likely to slowly start picking up traction from 2H2021.

"On a quarterly basis, cement demand would be a washout in the first quarter of this fiscal, given lockdown measures across India that would hurt construction. Demand will pick up only from the second half of this fiscal," Isha Chaudhary and Koustav Mazumdar said in their April 8 report.

The analysts further added that complete recovery would take longer due to lower Capex by government, given diversion of funds towards health and public welfare, weakened demand for real estate and private individual houses and buildings (IHB) and a lower spend under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY-Urban) given the impact on incomes. Presently, government-backed projects account for 35-40 per cent of the demand for the commodity.

However, projects in rural housing, PMAY (Rural), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), and spend on key infrastructure projects will start to provide some relief to the sector from the second half of the year.

"Washout in the first quarter, followed by continued mildness through the seasonally weak second quarter, will weigh on the sector’s growth, leading to a first-ever demand contraction of this proportion for it this fiscal," the report stated.

"Contracting demand growth will push the sector’s utilisation level down further to 56-58 per cent, adding to the pain from the weakening seen in fiscal 2020, when incremental supply exceeded demand by 27 million tonnes (MT)," it added.

CAPACITY EXPANSION, PROFITABILITY TO BE IMPACTED
The demand shock owing to the disruption caused by COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing nationwide efforts towards its containment is expected to affect the capacity addition plans of the industry, and stall or delay projects in the medium-term.

Despite weak demand, the cement industry had registered a decent price increase of Rs 25 per bag in FY2020 owing largely to consolidation in the regional markets by bigger players. This and lower commodity prices are likely to drive margins at cement companies to a seven-year high during the fiscal.

However, the study anticipates the price increase to reverse as players struggle on the demand front. The decline would be limited to 1-2 per cent (or Rs 5-10 per bag) as players exhibit pricing discipline, with realisations declining 2-3 per cent as the share of non-trade is likely to increase.

"Profitability, on its part, is expected to be under pressure after some expansion last fiscal. The impact of demand freefall, though, will be limited by lower input prices, the report said.

Because of directions on social distancing issued by the centre and state governments to prevent infections, leading cement manufacturers like ACC, India Cements, Ramco Cement, Ultra Tech Cement and Dalmia Cement (Bharat) temporarily suspended cement production across their plants in late March.

Manish Pant

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Concrete

Heidelberg Materials secures SBTi validation

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The Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) has validated Heidelberg Materials’ new 2030 CO2 reduction targets. The targets have a base year of 2020 and conform to a 1.5°C climate change framework. Per tonne of cementitious material, the producer is now committed to reducing its Scope 1 CO2 emissions by 24 per cent, its Scope 2 CO2 emissions by 65 per cent and its Scope 3 emissions by 25 per cent.

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Concrete

Awards for Lafarge Africa

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Lafarge Africa has won different awards for its contributions and achievements in sustainability and environmental performance as well as its commitment towards gender inclusion and diversity in the workplace in 2022. These are: the Award for Sustainability Reporting at the 2022 NGX Made of Africa Awards; the Eco-friendly Cement Manufacturing Company of the Year Award at the Environmental Sustainability Conference, Expo, and Awards 2022 (ECOSEA); Environmental Sustainability Professional of the Year for Titilope Oguntuge, the company’s head for Sustainability & Corporate Branding, also at ECOSEA 2022 and; Most Outstanding Company in Gender Inclusion’ (Extractive Industry) at the Women in Marketing Communications Award (WIMCA) 2022.

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Concrete

Etex joins the First Movers Coalition

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Etex has joined the First Movers Coalition to help reduce carbon emissions related to cement production. The coalition seeks to explore options to reduce the carbon footprint of cement used in the building and construction industry by as much as 80 per cent compared to the 2021 US emissions baseline. Etex wants to contribute to worldwide advanced research and development developments in the field of cement. Once developed, Etex and other players will help the new technologies gain ground by buying at least 10 per cent near-zero cement per year of their total cement volume by 2030. The plan follows Etex’s 2030 decarbonisation target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (intensity of scopes 1 and 2) by 35 per cent compared to 2018. Etex is a light building materials manufacturer with products such as gypsum wallboard, insulation, building systems, cladding and fibre cement boards.

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