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Base effect hides monthly decline

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Steel and cement sector witnessed a growth of 59.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent (YoY) respectively, which reflects the capex push provided by the Central and State governments. The decline in case of cement and steel production is mainly due to impact of the record surge in Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and the associated lockdowns on construction activity.

The Eight core sector should be read with caution again as the favourable base effect is again at play for the third consecutive month. In May 2021, core sector output rose by 16.8 per cent as against a contraction of 21.4 per cent in May 2020. On a month on month level comparison, there has been a marginal decline of 3.7 per cent which reflects the impact of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns on business activities. One should note that May has been characterised by lockdowns of varied nature in both FY21 and FY22. The localised lockdowns during May??1 did have a bearing on output of the 8-core sector to some extent while the double-digit growth can be chiefly ascribed to the low growth number in May??020. There has been an upward revision in the core sector growth data for April??1 to 60.9 per cent (previous estimate: 56 per cent).

The double-digit Y-O-Y growth has been primarily driven strong growth registered in steel, natural gas and refinery products. Month-on-month improvement has been registered in case of fertilisers (ahead of kharif season), natural gas and coal production. The monthly index for May??1 is still 6.1 per cent lower than the pre-pandemic index of February??0 and 8.2 per cent lower than May??019 (the year prior to the pandemic). So far in FY22, the core sector output has witnessed a growth of 35.8 per cent compared with a de-growth of 29.4 per cent in the corresponding month last year but this purely a baseeffect phenomenon. There could be support from government capex as the fiscal numbers for this period show higher outlay on roads.

Key highlights

Coal production was higher by 6.9 per cent in May 2021 as against -14.1 per cent in May 2021. Despite the 2nd wave of the COVID19 pandemic disrupting business activities during the month, there has been a month-on-month improvement of 3.1 per cent in coal production on the back of revival in demand from the power sector.

Crude oil production fell by 6.3 per cent in May 2021, registering the 42nd consecutive monthly decline. The decline in production can be ascribed to adverse climatic conditions created by cyclone Tauktae, which hit the Indian west coast coupled with less than planned contribution from workover wells, drilling wells and old wells. The overall production has also been lower owing to lower consumer demand, infectivity issues in few wells, workovers and water knockouts.

Natural gas production rose by 20.1 per cent in May??021 compared with contraction of 16.7 per cent in May??020 mainly due to higher output from the PSC fields. However, production in government fields were low due to reduced gas production in Western Offshore due to cyclone Taukate, delay in commencement of gas production and less offtake by consumers due to Covid-19 issues. Natural gas production by Pvt/JVs companies in the PSC (production sharing contracts) regime has almost tripled on a YoY basis. This is due to increased contributions from D-34 field of KG DWN 98/3 and wells from satellite cluster.

Refinery production rose by 15.3 per cent in May??1 as against a de-growth of 21.3 per cent in May??020. There has however been a month-on-month decline of 4.6 per cent reflective of lower consumer demand amidst the localised lockdowns during the 2nd wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Products that witnessed a rise in production were high speed diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuel and petcoke, while fuel oil and kerosene saw a fall in output during this month.

Fertiliser production declined to a 14-month low of 9.6 per cent in May 2021 compared with a high base of 7.5 per cent in May 2020. The m-o-m growth of 16.1 per cent can be ascribed fertilizer manufacturing companies increasing their production in May over April in anticipation of good demand ahead of the kharif sowing season. Along with this, the Centre increased the subsidy on fertilizers in mid-May after fertilizer producers announced their plans of increasing prices due to a surge in international feedstock prices. This hike in subsidies assuaged manufacturers??worries around a fall in demand from farmers. This is likely to have supported production too.

Steel and cement registered a growth of 59.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent (YoY) respectively which does reflect the capex push provided by the governments at both Centre and State level along with a low base effect. The m-o-m decline in case of cement and steel production highlights the impact of the record surge in Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and the associated lockdowns on construction activity. Labour shortages due to reverse migration also had a bearing on construction activities during May??021.

Electricity generation rose by 7.3 per cent in May 2021 as against a low base of 14.8 per cent in May 2020. However, there has been a month-on-month decline of 7.1 per cent as states imposed lockdowns to rein in the devastating effect of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The higher usage of electricity in residential locations during the summer season limited the monthly moderation to some extent.

CARE Ratings??View

There has been a dip in the core sector index for May??021 compared with the previous month which reflects the impact of the localised lockdowns on business activity. However, as economic activities, especially in the industrial segment were not significantly affected in June 2021, output of the core sector will witness an improvement. There has been a strong push for capex from the Government which will drive steel and cement while the advent of the kharif season will drive fertilizer production. The impact of the base-effect will continue in the next few months but will fade away subsequently. The IIP for the month of May??021 could range between 20-30 per cent though one should not read much into it.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

The article is authored by Sushant Hede, Associate Economist. He can be contacted on: Email: sushant.hede@careratings.com | Tel: 91-22-6837 4348

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Limited. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis / inferences / views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

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Concrete

Sambhv Steel Tubes is Now Certified as a Great Place to Work

This certification, valid from January 2025 to January 2026.

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Sambhv Steel Tubes Limited, one of the key manufacturers of electric resistance welded (“ERW”) steel pipes and structural tubes (hollow section) in India in terms of the installed capacity as of March 31, 2024 (Source: CRISIL Report) is pleased to announce that it has been officially certified as a “Great Place to Work® for 2025. 
This certification, valid from January 2025 to January 2026, is a testament to the company’s commitment to fostering a workplace environment built on trust, collaboration, innovation, and employee well-being. Sambhv Steel Tubes also invites talented professionals who share its values of trust, collaboration, and innovation to join its team and be part of its growth journey. The Great Place to Work® certification is a recognized benchmark for workplace excellence. It is awarded based on employee feedback and an evaluation of workplace practices. Achieving this certification underscores Sambhv Steel Tubes’ dedication to nurturing a culture where Sambhv Steel strives to ensure that employees feel valued, supported, and empowered to grow both personally and professionally 
The DRHP is available on the website of the Company at www.sambhv.com, SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in, websites of BSE Limited at www.bseindia.com and National Stock Exchange of India Limited at www.nseindia.com and the website of the book running lead managers, i.e. Nuvama Wealth Management Limited and Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors Limited at www.nuvama.com and www.motilaloswalgroup.com, respectively. Any potential investor should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk and for details relating to such risk, please see the section entitled “Risk Factors” of the RHP, when filed. Potential investors should not rely on the DRHP for making any investment decision. This announcement does not constitute an offer of the Equity Shares for sale in any jurisdiction, including the United States, and the Equity Shares may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the US Securities Act of 1933 or an exemption from registration. 
Any public offering of the Equity Shares to be made in the United States will be made by means of a prospectus that may be obtained from the Company and that will contain detailed information about the Company and management, as well as financial statements. However, the Equity Shares are not being offered or sold in the United States. CRISIL Market Intelligence & Analytics (CRISIL MI&A), a division of CRISIL Limited, provides independent research, consulting, risk solutions, and data & analytics to its clients. CRISIL MI&A operates independently of CRISIL’s other divisions and subsidiaries, including, CRISIL Ratings Limited.
Image Source: Sambhv Steel Tubes

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Concrete

Cement Industry Key to Growth, Jobs, and Nation Building in Budget

Budget presents opportunities for cement sector in growth, jobs, and infra.

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The Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) welcomes the Union Budget 2025-26 presented by the Honourable Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. CMA Member Companies have been at the forefront of nation building by significantly contributing to infrastructure development, employment generation, and economic growth. CMA believes that the Budget presents a commendable vision for India’s development through strategic investments in people, economy, and innovation.
Commenting on the Budget, Neeraj Akhoury, President, Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) and Managing Director, Shree Cement Limited, stated, “CMA hails the Union Budget, announced under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for its comprehensive focus on holistic and inclusive development. The Budget reinforces a transformative journey towards building a resilient economy for advancing India’s development goals. The various initiatives announced by the Government balance people’s aspirations with the future requirements for the Country’s economic growth. The focus on increased investments on infrastructure across States amplifies opportunities and avenues for the growth of the Cement sector. We appreciate the sustained core focus on infrastructure and reiterate our commitment to being partners in Nation’s progress.<p></p>
<p>The increased spending on large scale housing and infrastructure projects will drive demand for construction materials allowing capacity expansion and promotion of innovation in sustainable practices. We are certain that despite challenges these measures will support the Cement Industry in achieving a consistent CAGR growth rate of more than 6 per cent of installed cement capacity in the present financial year. Policy reforms in Budget 2025-26 signal a reaffirmation of the Government’s intent to augment socio economic growth across core sectors.”
The Cement Industry plays a vital role in creating direct and indirect employment across various sectors, including manufacturing, logistics, and construction, thereby supporting millions of livelihoods. Additionally, the industry remains a key contributor to the Government exchequer through taxes, duties, and levies, strengthening the country’s fiscal framework.
Parth Jindal, Vice President, Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA) and Managing Director, JSW Cement Limited, said, “The Budget presented by Finance Minister Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman is a forward-looking roadmap that will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of India’s cement industry, in line with the country’s vision for a Viksit Bharat by 2047. It prioritizes growth in key sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology. The increased investment in technology will accelerate advancements in green cement solutions, driving both sustainability and innovation within the industry. Notable allocations, including Rs 200 billion to foster innovation and Rs 1.5 billion in 50-year interest-free loans to states for capital expenditure on infrastructure development, are expected to significantly bolster growth in the core sectors, including cement sector.
He further added, “The Budget’s focus on a three-year pipeline of projects under the public-private partnership (PPP) model will incentivize private sector investment and catalyse a transformation in the infrastructure landscape. Additionally, the establishment of five National Centers of Excellence for skill development, as part of the ‘Make for India, Make for the World’ initiative, will ensure that India’s emerging workforce is well-equipped to meet the demands of a rapidly growing economy.”
In light of the recent Budget announcements, which prioritise infrastructure expansion and affordable housing, the Cement Industry is poised to leverage these opportunities by ensuring steady and sustained supplies of Cement to meet the Nation’s growing domestic market and infrastructure demand coupled with sustainable and innovative technologies. With a strong commitment to sustainability and efficiency, the Cement Industry will continue to drive India’s progress and economic resilience.

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Concrete

GMDC Inks Long-Term Limestone Supply Deal With JK Cement

The agreement has been signed for supply of 250 million tonne.

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State-owned GMDC said it has entered into a long-term pact with JK Cement Ltd for the supply of limestone from its upcoming mine in Gujarat. 
The agreement has been signed for supply of 250 million tonnes of limestone over a period of 40 years from its upcoming Lakhpat Punrajpur Mine in Lakhpat Taluka of Kutch district in Gujarat. 
This agreement will help JK Cement Ltd in setting up an integrated mega-capacity cement plant, fostering industrial growth in the region.Kutch’s coastal proximity, improved access to domestic and international markets, and cost-efficient logistics position it as an ideal hub for cement production. 
The state-owned company has five operational lignite mines in Kutch, South Gujarat, and Bhavnagar region.          

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