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Labour, cement and steel costs will drive builders to try pre-fabricated…

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Ram Raheja, Director and Head-Architecture, S Raheja Realty The year 2013 saw several challenges, increased cement and steel prices, convoluted policies, shortage of labour supply being some of them. The industry is optimistic about the coming year; after all, there is a large housing need to be met in the country. Ram Raheja, Director and Head-Architecture, S Raheja Realty takes us through 2013 and hints at what to expect in 2014. Excerpt from the interview.

How was the demand- supply ratio for housing in 2013 and what is the expected demand for 2014?
The Indian real estate market is highly segregated, with demand varying between two different cities and even two areas within the same city. Thus, it is difficult to evaluate the entire country´s market but overall, 2013 experienced a slowdown. With the Indian rupee going through an all-time low in 2013, it impacted the whole economy including the real estate sector. The falling currency value and rising inflation led to a lot of speculation and uncertainty in the market. As a result, buyers were scared to invest. RBI introduced several policy initiatives expected to improve the investment climate and business environment; though not fully functional, these laws will certainly bring about a positive climate in 2014.The year also saw hurdles in the form of a rise in the prices of cement and steel and a shortage in labour supply, which directly or indirectly, led to a corresponding hike in the prices of real estate projects.

Specific to Mumbai city, a sudden hike in TDR rates disturbed the developers as it meant that the land for redevelopment projects would cost a lot more, which would hamper the segment. It is expected that the government will implement the various new regulations discussed above to boost the sector and that 2014 will be a better year.

What credit policies / regulations will spur growth in the housing sector?
RBI and the government introduced reforms to help boost the real estate sector during 2013. This includes the Real Estate Regulation Bill which is expected to make the process of approvals a lot more transparent for both the developers and the consumers. The other step taken is the introduction of the real estate investment trusts (REITs) which will provide an avenue to real estate developers to commercialise developed property. It will also provide over-leveraged companies with an opportunity to de-leverage and increase the depth of the Indian real estate market while providing additional liquidity. Considering the economic slowdown and paucity of funds experienced by the sector in 2013, REITs are expected to infuse a fresh lease of life into an otherwise choppy market.

The Land Acquisition Act replaces the Land Acquisition Act of 1894 by establishing new rules for compensation as well as resettlement and rehabilitation. It has been passed by Parliament and will be effective January 2014.The most important feature of the Act is that the developers will need the consent of up to 80 per cent of people whose land is acquired for private projects and of 70 per cent of the landowners in the case of public-private partnership projects.

Do you expect a spurt in demand after the elections?
Like any other industry, the real estate sector is also looking forward to the 2014 elections as being a turning point from the slowdown experienced in 2013. Though the first few months will be slow, it should pick up from the second quarter onwards. The real estate sector is hoping for a stable government which will help boost the confidence of the investors and general sentiment in the market. The rise of income of the middle class and lower middle class is certainly helping market dynamics.

What are the key drivers for growth in the housing sector?
The key driver in any sector is always demand and there is a huge demand in the housing sector. An estimated 26.53 million homes in the budget category is required for urban areas by 2013-2014 while the need is double in the rural sector. With general economic progress and the growing income of the middle class, the demand for affordable housing is also growing. Thus, real estate will remain one of the main sectors for the coming years and if the government makes adequate changes and supports the market with its policies, growth is inevitable. Therefore, if the developers and the government work together to provide quality housing to its population, I believe 2014 will witness a change in the growth curve.

To what extent have cement prices impacted the housing sector?
Real estate sector is directly dependent on ancillary industries like cement and steel, and both theses industries saw a significant price rise in 2013. According to the Indian Realtors` body CREDAI, cement prices across India had gone up by Rs 58-70/bag in the week to 23 September 2013. In Maharashtra, prices went up by 31 per cent in just a week. The cement manufacturing companies increased rates by Rs 30-35 for a 50 kgs bag. Such fluctuations lead to delays in project execution and hike in the construction costs. If the situation persists, it will impact the overall real estate market leading to delay in delivery of projects and will also hike the prices of apartments.

What are your expectations about cement prices in 2014?
The cement industry has been hit by the prolonged monsoons of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 may suffer due to that. Hopefully, the sector may pick up in the second quarter but that will depend on other factors like the cost of raw materials, labour costs, etc.

Do you foresee of the increasing use of RMC for realty projects?
Construction processes are witnessing a lot of change whether in terms of processes or choice of raw materials. With the hike in cement prices and labour costs, RMC is surely going to gain momentum in the coming years. Besides, with the huge need for housing in the country, materials that help speed up the process are required.

What are the major bottlenecks in the industry and what needs to be done to address them?
The bottlenecks are primarily in terms of delayed projects or the ones which get stuck in the approval process. If these processes become more transparent and faster, the sector will be unclogged. Also, if the prices remain fairly constant and projects are completed in time, inventories will not build up and the market will run smoothly. All this is possible if the economy becomes more stable.

What new markets trends are we likely to see in 2014?
Mid-income and budget housing will see a great demand this year. Markets in Tier-II and Tier-III cities will continue to grow. With an emerging middle and upper-middle class, second homes and condominiums with club house and sports facilities will also be in high demand. Labour, cement and steel costs will drive builders to try pre-fabricated and new age materials, and new methods of construction.

Specific to Mumbai city, a sudden hike in TDR rates disturbed the developers as it meant that the land for redevelopment projects would cost a lot more, which would hamper the segment.

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

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Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

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Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

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