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Cement industry to witness improved demand from July 2021

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According to CARE Ratings, the demand for cement will improve in a calibrated manner from July 2021 onwards. CARE Rating states that a double-digit cement volume growth seems unlikely at present for FY22, considering the uncertainty for the constantly evolving covid situation in the country. However, it also states that the profitability for cement players expects to remain healthy during FY22, considering the factors such as expected higher volumes and continuing pricing power enjoyed by cement companies which are likely to balance the cost pressures considerably. In terms of debt, most of the cement companies will be seen to continue their focus on strengthening their balance sheet during FY22. Moreover, report says that profits for FY22 will remain moderate due to increasing input costs for pet coke, diesel, coal, and packing materials, etc.

Today, the economic conditions of our country remain volatile. Considering this into account, the unlocking process that was earlier predicted for May 2021, has now been pushed to July 2021. This has affected the overall demand for cement for Q1FY22. The second wave came with a lot of uncertainties and shattered the overall demand during the last quarter of FY21. On the one hand, we see that the supply constraints are low because of the reopening of operations for the cement manufacturing companies; however, with a higher rate of infection in the rural areas, the demand for cement from rural got weaker.

CARE Ratings expects that for FY22, the domestic cement production may grow by around 4%-7% y-o-y after two consecutive years of de-growth against the initial estimate of 11%-14%. Demand for cement will directly depend on factors like the government?? push and spending towards infrastructure creation and development, pent-up urban demand, and continuing rural demand. However, the severity of ongoing pandemic will have direct impact on the timelines for demand revival for the cement industry.

Looking at Q1FY21, which was severely hit by the pandemic, the industry witnessed a swift recovery wherein domestic cement production reached 88% of pre-Covid levels (i.e., 88% of Q2FY20, states CARE Rating report. It further reports that during Q2FY21 and for Q3FY21, production was 96% of the corresponding period the previous year. Monthly domestic cement reached pre-Covid levels during March 2021 and was approximating to March 2019 levels. Overall, the domestic cement production has fallen by 12% during FY21 vis-?-vis FY20 as against the initial estimate of de-growth of 25%-30% made in April 2020.

For FY22, CARE Ratings estimates its entire portfolio of investment-grade cement companies will report stable performance with the aggregate rated debt of around Rs.23,964 crore. Most cement companies will be focusing on strengthening their balance sheets. However, it also states that the profitability for cement players is expected to remain moderate during FY22, due to increasing input costs especially for pet coke, diesel, coal, and packing materials, etc. Furthermore, CARE Rating also states that the liquidity for a majority of the CARE-rated investment grade portfolio is likely to remain strong or adequate in FY 2022.

Some of the key drivers identified by CARE Rating are-

Positives

  • Increased capital outlay towards infrastructure creation by 26% to Rs.5.54 lakh crore

  • Enhanced outlay of Rs.1,18,101 crore for MoRTH of which Rs. 1,08,230 crore is for capital.

  • Central Counterpart Funding to various metros aggregating to Rs.88,059 crore

  • Proposals to further incentivize and boost affordable housing.

  • Pent up urban demand and continuing rural demand.

Negative

  • Slow pick up of demand with ongoing Covid II

  • Increase in input costs

  • Excess capacities

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Concrete

Construction Costs Rise 11% in 2024, Driven by Labour Expenses

Cement Prices Decline 15%, But Labour Costs Surge by 25%

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The cost of construction in India increased by 11% over the past year, primarily driven by a 25% rise in labour expenses, according to Colliers India. While prices of key materials like cement dropped by 15% and steel saw a marginal 1% decrease, the surge in labour costs stretched construction budgets across sectors.

“Labour, which constitutes over a quarter of construction costs, has seen significant inflation due to the demand for skilled workers and associated training and compliance costs,” said Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India.

The residential segment experienced the sharpest cost escalation due to a growing focus on quality construction and demand for gated communities. Meanwhile, commercial and industrial real estate remained resilient, with 37 million square feet of office space and 22 million square feet of warehousing space completed in the first nine months of 2024.

“Despite rising costs, investments in automation and training are helping developers address manpower challenges and streamline project timelines,” said Vimal Nadar, senior director at Colliers India.

With labour costs continuing to influence overall construction expenses, developers are exploring strategies to optimize operations and mitigate rising costs.

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Concrete

Swiss Steel to Cut 800 Jobs

Job cuts due to weak demand

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Swiss Steel has announced plans to cut 800 jobs as part of a restructuring effort, triggered by weak demand in the global steel market. The company, a major player in the European steel industry, cited an ongoing slowdown in demand as the primary reason behind the workforce reduction. These job cuts are expected to impact various departments across its operations, including production and administrative functions.

The steel industry has been facing significant challenges due to reduced demand from key sectors such as construction and automotive manufacturing. Additionally, the broader economic slowdown in Europe, coupled with rising energy costs, has further strained the profitability of steel producers like Swiss Steel. In response to these conditions, the company has decided to streamline its operations to ensure long-term sustainability.

Swiss Steel’s decision to cut jobs is part of a broader trend in the steel industry, where companies are adjusting to volatile market conditions. The move is aimed at reducing operational costs and improving efficiency, but it highlights the continuing pressures faced by the manufacturing sector amid uncertain global economic conditions.

The layoffs are expected to occur across Swiss Steel’s production facilities and corporate offices, as the company focuses on consolidating its workforce. Despite these cuts, Swiss Steel plans to continue its efforts to innovate and adapt to market demands, with an emphasis on high-value, specialty steel products.

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Concrete

UltraTech Cement to raise Rs 3,000 crore via NCDs to boost financial flexibility

UltraTech reported a 36% year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit, dropping to Rs 825 crore

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UltraTech Cement, the Aditya Birla Group’s flagship company, has announced plans to raise up to Rs 3,000 crore through the private placement of non-convertible debentures (NCDs) in one or more tranches. The move aims to strengthen the company’s financial position amid increasing competition in the cement sector.

UltraTech’s finance committee has approved the issuance of rupee-denominated, unsecured, redeemable, and listed NCDs. The company has experienced strong stock performance, with its share price rising 22% over the past year, boosting its market capitalization to approximately Rs 3.1 lakh crore.

For Q2 FY2025, UltraTech reported a 36% year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit, dropping to Rs 825 crore, below analyst expectations. Revenue for the quarter also fell 2% YoY to Rs 15,635 crore, and EBITDA margins contracted by 300 basis points. Despite this, the company saw a 3% increase in domestic sales volume, supported by lower energy costs.

In a strategic move, UltraTech invested Rs 3,954 crore for a 32.7% equity stake in India Cements, further solidifying its position in South India. UltraTech holds an 11% market share in the region, while competitor Adani holds 6%. UltraTech also secured $500 million through a sustainability-linked loan, underscoring its focus on sustainable growth driven by infrastructure and housing demand.

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