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Greenshoots visible on growth, cost & price fronts

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The April-June 2018 (Q1) report card of some major cement companies is out, and it has highlighted the major and persistent structural concern affecting the industry – the absence of price hikes. However, greenshoots are visible on several parameters in the industry, which is expected to get even starker in the July-September 2018 quarter.
Drawing from the highlights of UltraTech Cement’s management commentary in their outlook during the announcement of their results, CLSA’s Vivek Maheshwari said, ‘UltraTech management believes that the upcycle has begun and it sounded very confident as it believes that this current upcycle would be the longest in recent history. Demand drivers such as big infra projects and rural are in place to drive 8-10 per cent demand growth (or even double digit) in the medium term. As against this, capacity CAGR would be 3-4 per cent, driving up utilisation rates.’
The UltraTech’s management was also sanguine about the rise in prices in the coming quarter, citing that June exit prices were higher than the quarter’s average, though lower than expected spot cement prices are still forcing analysts to be cautious on growth in profitability of the industry. On costs front also the company was positive stating that cost pressures are close to peaking, and there would be margin-accretive price hikes ahead. However, UltraTech had a weak quarter as net earnings declined 33 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 6bn.
‘Demand commentary remains very robust. (The UltraTech) Management expects demand to grow at near double digits led by infrastructure, and its multiplier effect on housing in the medium term,’ said Vaibhav Agarwal of PhillipCapital India, while calling the cost management of the company ‘Excellent’ – resulting in flat YoY and rise of just 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
Meanwhile, ACC has reported robust numbers, even surprising the market on several fronts. Despite the absence of high margin business segments (such as white cement for UltraTech), ACC has reported a 5 per cent QoQ jump in cement realisations in Q1. The company’s EBITDA grew by 10 per cent YoY to Rs 5.4 billion. Net earnings grew 1 per cent YoY to Rs 3.3 billion.
‘These results clearly showcase that ACC’s focus on realisation trend in Q1 was way ahead of its peer UltraTech? These numbers also showcase that ACC has probably geared up on its brand positioning vs. UltraTech in Q1. UltraTech’s blended realisations moved up by mere 2 per cent in Q1FY19/Q2CY18 ? way lower than ACC and despite both being pan-India majors,’ says Agarwal. The company’s EBITDA/tonne was at Rs 752.
‘ACC’s adjusted unit EBITDA rose to a six-year high of Rs 810per tonne. We believe the savings from the cement/clinker-swap with Ambuja are yet to kick-in and will help in the future. At 89 per cent utilisation, ACC needs new capacity, and market share loss remains a risk,’ says Maheshwari.
ACC’s blended realisations, which were earlier at a discount of Rs 120-140/tonne versus UltraTech (in comparable quarters to Q1- YoY and QoQ), has reversed to a positive of +Rs 20 per tonne in favour of ACC in Q2CY18/Q1FY19, according to CLSA. This is unadjusted for any revenues for white cement business for its peer UltraTech, else the gap would have been even higher and in favour of ACC, says Agarwal.
Analysts term ACC Q1 results that they were good results overall, beating their expectations. Ambuja Cements, which shares the same parentage with ACC ? LafargeHolcim – has also done well during the quarter under review despite challenges.
Ambuja’s April-June 2018 quarter standalone EBITDA declined 13 per cent YoY to Rs 5.3 billion and other income was boosted by dividend from ACC, depreciation was in-line while interest was lower. The tax rate was lower, helped by the dividend receipt. Pre-exclusive earnings grew 27 per cent YoY to Rs 5.0 billion, sharply ahead. Consolidated EBITDA fell 3 per cent YoY to Rs 12.5 billion and net earnings 5 per cent YoY to Rs 6.9 billion.
Another cement major, Shree Cement’s Q1 EBITDA declined 19 per cent YoY to Rs 5.8 billion, despite a positive surprise from its power business and cement volume growth of 19 per cent YoY to 7mt. Depreciation rose 31 per cent QoQ mainly due to the commissioning of Kodla Grinding Unit and interest costs. Other expenses spiked 29 per cent YoY due to an Rs 700-million mark to market (MTM) loss on a foreign exchange loan. Net earnings fell 36 per cent YoY to Rs 2.8 billion.
Cement realisations, however, declined 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 205 per bag against the estimate of a flattish trend. Unit costs rose 4 per cent QoQ mainly led by cost inflation in power and fuel costs. Weak realisations and cost pressure weighed on its Unit EBITDA, which fell to Rs 763 per tonne, down 20 per cent QoQ, and notably at a 12-quarter low. Adjusting for MTM though, its unit EBITDA was better at Rs 863 per tonne, says Maheshwari.
Power business volume of Shree Cement rose a neat 31 per cent QoQ and an even higher 58 per cent on a YoY basis led by strong demand. Unit realisations also improved 16 per cent sequentially, and along with higher volume, was the key driver of the earnings surprise. Unit costs rose a small 2 per cent QoQ. Power EBITDA came in at Rs 420 million, and its contribution to overall EBITDA rose to a multi-quarter high of 7 per cent.BS Srinivasalu Reddy

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Steel: Shielded or Strengthened?

CW explores the impact of pro-steel policies on construction and infrastructure and identifies gaps that need to be addressed.

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Going forward, domestic steel mills are targeting capacity expansion
of nearly 40 per cent through till FY31, adding 80-85 mt, translating
into an investment pipeline of $ 45-50 billion. So, Jhunjhunwala points
out that continuing the safeguard duty will be vital to prevent a surge
in imports and protect domestic prices from external shocks. While in
FY26, the industry operating profit per tonne is expected to hold at
around $ 108, similar to last year, the industry’s earnings must
meaningfully improve from hereon to sustain large-scale investments.
Else, domestic mills could experience a significant spike in industry
leverage levels over the medium term, increasing their vulnerability to
external macroeconomic shocks.(~$ 60/tonne) over the past one month,
compressing the import parity discount to ~$ 23-25/tonne from previous
highs of ~$ 70-90/tonne, adds Jhunjhunwala. With this, he says, “the
industry can expect high resistance to further steel price increases.”

Domestic HRC prices have increased by ~Rs 5,000/tonne
“Aggressive
capacity additions (~15 mt commissioned in FY25, with 5 mt more by
FY26) have created a supply overhang, temporarily outpacing demand
growth of ~11-12 mt,” he says…

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

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Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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