Connect with us

Process

Cement capacity to remain stagnant

Published

on

Shares

Cement industry for long has been waiting for good time, but the ground realities indicate that it will have to wait.

Cement production is expected to remain flat at 70-75 per cent of installed capacity this financial year, according to MP Rawal, Advisor, JK Cement. The industry had a total installed capacity of close to 430 MT (million tonne) a year in the country. Production last year (2016-2017) was about 300 MT, which meant that almost 30 per cent of capacity was unused.

"Our growth depends directly on the construction activity. If it slows down, the cement industry also faces a slowdown," Rawal said. Industry watchers expect this financial year to witness similar demand for cement and resultant production as last year," he says.

"Manufacturers have not made any significant investments primarily due to the auction system-followed by the Government since 2015 for limestone quarries-and a substantial portion of the existing capacity remaining unused," he added.

Rawal said that ready-to-use products were common in Europe. "In India, demand is just picking up. Large infrastructure projects are expected to increase demand for these products. Investments are being made for producing those kind of products."

Slump in cement prices,
India’s ambitious plans for housing and infrastructure construction may end a slump in cement prices. Prices are expected to rise as much as 5 per cent in the second half of the year ending March 2018, according to Reliance Securities Ltd. They have dropped 9.4 per cent since a May high after four back-to-back months of decline, Mangesh Bhadang, Research Analyst, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt, wrote in a research report this month.

India’s cement capacity has more than doubled in the past decade though demand has been subdued recently with an existing slump in housing exacerbated by a crackdown on unaccounted-for cash and new legislation to ensure better homebuyer protections. Cement prices are expected to recover as the Government’s ‘Housing for All’ plan gathers pace along with promised spending of $62 billion on railways, airports and roads.

"Demand is expected to see a meaningful improvement due to the low base, good monsoon aiding a pick-up in rural activities and the Government’s push in infrastructure and housing segments," said Binod Modi, Research Analyst of Mumbai-based Reliance Securities.

India plans to expand its current highway network by 50 per cent by 2022, which may create 80 million tonne of cement demand, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michelle Leung estimated in a report.

That translates to at least 5 per cent growth in demand a year, she wrote. Cement prices have already started improving in some parts of the country and the gains should continue with the end of the annual monsoon season and the start of a string of festivals, said Madhusudan Shah, president of the Cement Stockists and Dealers Association of Bombay. Wholesale prices in the Mumbai region have increased by Rs 25 to 30 per bag in September, he said.

Manufacturers may take advantage of better demand to pass on any further increase in international pet-coke prices, used to fuel kilns, Reliance Securities’ Modi said. Pet-coke prices have climbed 20-25 per cent in the past year, he said.

UltraTech Cement Ltd, India’s largest cement producer, expects a gradual demand pickup after the monsoons, the company said in an investor’s presentation.

Consumption in India’s largest state economy of Maharashtra is going to be "good," said Rakesh Singh, Executive President at India Cements Ltd. The previously drought-impacted region has seen good rains, and a substantial chunk of India’s planned road construction will take place in the Western state, home to financial capital Mumbai, he said. "Our guess is that post September-October there will be good demand coming out of Maharashtra," Singh said. "Maharashtra will be a high-consuming State."

Care Ratings on cement sector
Cement production in the first quarter saw de-growth of 3.9 per cent. Cement production stood at 72.67 MT in Q1FY17 as against 75.7 MT in Q1 FY 16. Cement production in the country peaked in Q4FY16 at 78.47 MT. For the period April-July 2017, the production has declined by 3.5 per cent to 95.37 MT as against 98.87 MT during the same period last year.

Segment demand
Real estate and housing, which constitutes two-third of the cement consumption, has seen very low inventory addition as claimed by various industry sources. We expect the same to persist as clarity on RERA implementation would continue to evolve during the coming quarters. The newly implemented Act (RERA) along with the regulations and compliances is making developers cautious.

Infrastructure previously contributed for 13 per cent of the total consumption in India. With increased Government spend and low activity in real estate, infrastructure share in cement consumption would inch upwards of 15 per cent during the current fiscal year. Roads and public infrastructure development is expected to push the demand for cement in the two coming quarters.

GST and its impact
GST implemented on July 1, 2017, led to reduction in prices since previous regime taxed cement at 30-31 per cent as against 28 per cent under the GST regime. The same is being passed on to the customers. The wholesale price index shows price change beginning Q1 FY17. We expect weak demand to keep the prices in check at current levels and be range bound for the coming quarters.

Demand outlook
Demand is expected to be regional with higher demand from Eastern region followed by Northern. Housing for all, national highways and other public infrastructure would form the backbone for demand in the Eastern region.

In Northern India, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana would be the regional growth drivers. Uttar Pradesh and Punjab owing to new Government formation in the first half of the year, would witness infrastructure development push. Favourable monsoons leading to demand in agriculture based rural markets would be another major uptick for cement consumption in the Northern states.

To conclude, ICR expects the cement production to remain subdued in the coming quarter. We see overall recovery starting Q3 FY17. Subdued activity in the real estate segment would impact the overall demand and this would keep the prices and price volatility under check.

With RERA implementation to be completed across all major markets by the end of Q2 FY17 along with clarity on the impact of GST on the realty sector, we expect construction activity to pick up gradually post Q2FY17. Affordable housing and various government-led housing schemes would lead demand recovery for cement from real estate segment.

Infrastructure project implementation, led by Smart City projects across 60 cities and national highway projects, would be major demand drivers in the infrastructure segment. Implementation in the first batch of 20 smart cities has already taken off in stages, and for the remaining 40 smart cities chosen is September 2016. We expect the project implementation to begin Q3 FY17 onwards which should drive the demand for cement.

Demand from other segments, namely industrial segment, would remain subdued while that from commercial segment is expected to remain stable.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Process

Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

Published

on

By

Shares

Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

Continue Reading

Process

Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

Published

on

By

Shares

The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

Continue Reading

Process

In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

Published

on

By

Shares

Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

Continue Reading

Trending News

This will close in 5 seconds

SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER

 

Don't miss out on valuable insights and opportunities to connect with like minded professionals.

 


    This will close in 0 seconds